A hawkish Fed Chair Warsh may pressure the gold prices\GoldOANDA:XAUUSDWiseLeoTradingGold prices have rallied strongly since early Aug, driven by Fed rate cut expectations following softer inflation data and the US Treasury’s buyback program, which aims to ease long-end off-the-run Treasury yields and reduce economy-wide funding costs. Meanwhile, recent PCE data indicates that price pressures persist, while resilient Personal Consumption may bolster demand-pull inflation alongside cost-push pressures, as energy prices remain elevated amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Additionally, recent Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims highlight a resilient labor market, which, alongside July’s declining Unemployment Rate, points to sustained consumer spending that may delay inflation’s return to target. Monetary policy stances remain divergent regarding the rate trajectory needed to normalize inflation, adding overhead pressure to gold. Today, Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech serves as a pivotal event that will shape market expectations for monetary policy and direct gold’s medium-term trajectory. A hawkish stance may weigh on gold, whereas a dovish tone could extend the rally. Technical Analysis XAUUSD is consolidating after a strong rally, trading around 4600 and holding above support at 4577. Price remains range-bound between EMAs with weakening momentum, suggesting an extended consolidation phase. Upside Scenario: A break above 4745 may trigger a run toward resistance at 4880. Downside Scenario: Failure to hold above 4577 may drive prices toward the next support at 4438. By Van Ha Trinh - Financial Market Strategist at Exness