KAREN WEISE2026年8月28日Bill Gates, the billionaire co-founder of Microsoft, is loudly warning that artificial intelligence poses a grave threat to jobs and human life, and that urgently addressing the risks should be “the world’s top priority.”微软联合创始人、亿万富翁比尔·盖茨强烈警告称，人工智能对就业和人类生命构成了严重威胁，紧急应对这些风险应该成为“全球头等大事”。In an hourlong interview with The New York Times last week, Mr. Gates said the tech industry was knowingly downplaying those threats because there was too much money on the line.在上周接受《纽约时报》长达一小时的采访时，盖茨表示，科技行业明知这些威胁却在刻意淡化，因为其中牵涉的利益太过巨大。“In private, people who understand how good this stuff is, and how much better it’s getting, they’re very worried,” he said. But few tech executives, Mr. Gates said, are willing to publicly admit that. “They’re now saying to each other: ‘Hey, man, don’t say that. It’s bad for us — the next trillion dollars we’re trying to raise.’”他说：“私下里，了解这项技术有多强大、发展速度有多快的人都非常担忧。”但盖茨表示，几乎没有科技高管愿意公开承认这一点。“他们现在互相打招呼说：‘嘿，老兄，别这么说。这对我们没好处——我们还打算筹集下一个万亿美元呢。’”On Wednesday, Mr. Gates published a nearly 6,000-word essay on his personal website laying out his concerns about A.I. and offering solutions, such as new taxes and bans. He said he was motivated to speak now because recent improvements in A.I. had far surpassed his expectations and because the industry had ignored technology milestones — like A.I.’s escaping the control of its creators or making recipes for bioweapons — that it once said would warrant more caution.周三，盖茨在其个人网站上发表了一篇近6000字的文章，阐述了他对人工智能的担忧，并提出了解决方案，例如征收新税和实施禁令。他表示，他之所以决定现在发声，是因为人工智能近期的进步已经远远超出了他的预期，而且整个行业忽视了一些技术里程碑——比如人工智能逃脱其创造者的控制，或制定生物武器配方，业界曾认为这些里程碑一旦出现就需要更加谨慎对待。“They’re just full speed ahead and hoping that the good outweighs the bad,” he said.“他们只是在全速前进，并且希望利能大于弊，”他说。Mr. Gates, 70, is the latest in a string of tech luminaries to call out the risks of A.I. as the industry spends trillions of dollars on new data centers, and as young A.I. companies edge toward some of the largest initial public offerings in history.现年70岁的盖茨是最新一位警示人工智能风险的科技界巨擘。与此同时，该行业正斥资数万亿美元建设新的数据中心，一些年轻的人工智能公司也正朝着历史上规模最大的首次公开募股迈进。盖茨于6月出席众议院委员会就杰弗里·爱泼斯坦案举行的听证会。他在一次采访中承认自己犯过错误。He is taking his stand as he emerges from an extended period of scandal. Early this year, the release of the sexual predator Jeffrey Epstein’s emails brought renewed attention to Mr. Gates’s interactions with him.在经历了一段漫长的丑闻风波后，盖茨如今站出来发声。今年早些时候，性犯罪者杰弗里·爱泼斯坦电子邮件的曝光让人们重新关注起盖茨与他的交往。Mr. Gates had to pull out of an A.I. conference in February, and testified for six hours in June before a House committee. Disclosures of his infidelity, combined with his 2021 divorce, have also badly damaged his reputation. He acknowledged that they were all “mistakes” of his own doing.盖茨不得不退出2月的一场人工智能大会，并于6月出席了众议院委员会长达六小时的听证会。婚外情的曝光以及2021年的离婚也严重损害了他的声誉。他承认这些都是他自己犯下的“错误”。He appears more willing to step back into the spotlight after answering every question from the House Oversight Committee. “I think people understand what I did do, what I didn’t do and that I learn when I make mistakes,” he said in the interview.在回答了众议院监督委员会的所有问题后，他似乎更愿意重新回到聚光灯下。“我认为人们明白我做了什么，没做什么，也明白我在犯错后会吸取教训，”他在采访中说道。Mr. Gates conceded that he also might be a flawed messenger simply because of his vast wealth and history as Microsoft’s aggressive chief executive. In a landmark federal case, Microsoft was found in 2000 to have repeatedly abused its monopoly during his watch. (Mr. Gates left the company’s board of directors in 2020.)盖茨承认，因为他拥有巨额财富，且曾担任微软强势的首席执行官，他可能是一个有瑕疵的信息传递者。在2000年一项具有里程碑意义的联邦诉讼中，微软被裁定在他掌舵期间多次滥用其垄断地位。（盖茨于2020年离开公司董事会。）While Mr. Gates avoided criticizing Microsoft or other companies by name, he argued that he was uniquely positioned to work on the A.I. issue. He is a technologist and industry insider who is no longer driven by the profit incentives of running a company, and he has spent decades addressing inequality through his philanthropic foundation.尽管盖茨避免点名批评微软或其他公司，但他认为自己在应对人工智能问题上处于得天独厚的位置。他是一位技术专家和行业内部人士，不再受经营公司的利润动机驱动，并且数十年来一直通过自己的慈善基金会致力于解决不平等问题。“The irony of ‘innovation lover is scared and says we’re not ready and we’re crossing thresholds,’ maybe it’s even more poignant,” he said.“一个热爱创新的人感到害怕，说我们还没做好准备，说我们正在跨过临界点——这种讽刺意味也许更加发人深省，”他说。Mr. Gates said technological advances had truly stunned him three times: In 1980 when he first saw a graphical user interface, which led to the modern personal computer. In 2022 when the leaders of OpenAI came to his house to demonstrate what would soon become ChatGPT. And this year when he looked closely at the advances being made by Claude Code, Anthropic’s A.I. tool.盖茨表示，曾有三次技术进步真正令他惊叹：1980年，他第一次看到图形用户界面，这最终催生了现代个人电脑。2022年，OpenAI的领导者来到他家，展示了不久后成为ChatGPT的产品。还有今年，他仔细审视了Anthropic的人工智能工具Claude Code所取得的进展。Coding, Mr. Gates said, is the subject he knows best, and Claude’s abilities shocked him. “The idea that now these things are in a meaningful sense better than I am is like: What the hell?” he said.盖茨说，编程是他最了解的领域，而Claude的能力震惊了他。“现在这些东西在某种实质意义上比我还厉害了，我简直想问：这到底是怎么回事？”他说。Anthropic公司5月举办的“与Claude一起编程”活动。盖茨表示，编程是他最熟悉的领域，而Claude的能力令他大为震惊。Technological breakthroughs in the past created more jobs than they eliminated, Mr. Gates said. But he is in disbelief that industry boosters say that will happen again this time.盖茨表示，过去的技术突破创造的工作岗位比淘汰的更多。行业拥趸宣称这一次也会重演同样的情况，他表示对此无法相信。The A.I. era is “utterly, absolutely, completely, totally different,” he said. He acknowledged that this unpopular opinion (in tech circles) was “a hell of a claim, and I’m staking everything I know — everything — saying, ‘Are you kidding?’”他说，人工智能时代是“彻底、绝对、完全、截然不同的”。他承认，这个（在科技圈内）不受欢迎的观点“是一个极端的断言，我正押上我所知道的一切——一切——来发问：‘你们是认真的吗？’”He said mass job losses, if not addressed, were inevitable because A.I. would spread across the economy and leave little room for one industry to absorb the refugees from another. The biggest tech companies in the world, including Microsoft, are racing to help corporate customers adopt A.I., which could replace many workers.他表示，如果不加以解决，大规模失业将是不可避免的，因为人工智能将蔓延至整个经济领域，一个行业几乎没有余地去吸纳来自其他行业的失业人员。包括微软在内的全球最大型科技公司正竞相帮助企业客户采用人工智能，这可能会取代许多工人。Mr. Gates said that companies were just responding to market incentives, but that those incentives might conflict with what was best for society.盖茨表示，企业只是在对市场激励做出反应，但这些激励可能与社会的最佳利益相冲突。He proposed a new tax on A.I. use, known as a “token tax,” to make it more expensive to replace people and provide money to help those who do lose work. A token is a basic unit of A.I. computing. The idea of taxing it has gained some traction, including on Wall Street, as a way to increase the cost of using machines instead of human labor.他提议对人工智能的使用征收一种名为“token税”的新收税，以增加取代人类的成本，并为失业者提供经济援助。token是人工智能计算的基本单位。对其征税的想法已经获得了一些支持，包括在华尔街，它被视为提高使用机器取代劳动力的成本的一种方式。Some jobs, Mr. Gates said, should be prohibited from being replaced by A.I. — an idea he called “Human Reserved” — because the role is deeply personal, like a caregiver, or the people in those jobs are unlikely to find new employment.盖茨表示，一些工作应被禁止由人工智能取代——他将这一概念称为“人类保留”(Human Reserved)——因为这些角色具有极强的个人化属性（比如护理人员），或者从事这些工作的人不太可能找到新工作。He argued for new international agreements to set clear criteria to monitor and restrict extreme risks like bioterrorism. He said it could take only a few people with access to advanced A.I. to develop new pathogens.他主张达成新的国际协议，设定明确的标准，以监测和限制生物恐怖主义等极端风险。他说，只需少数几个人掌握先进的人工智能技术，就足以开发出新的病原体。He said he would happily debate anyone who argued against mandatory reviews of any A.I. system that could be weaponized to make new molecules and unleash a pandemic. Mr. Gates added that he was dumbfounded by the kind of voluntary measures that the White House and industry leaders were developing.他说，如果人工智能系统可以被用作武器，制造新分子并引发大规模流行病，必须接受强制审查。如果有人反对这一点，他很乐意与其辩论。盖茨补充说，白宫和行业领导者正在制定的那种自愿性措施令他感到目瞪口呆。“Self-regulation on the most dangerous tool ever invented?” he said incredulously. “No, thanks!”“对有史以来发明过的最危险的工具进行自我监管？”他难以置信地说。“不，谢谢！”Mr. Gates said he was in a “state of shock” as to why there was not more urgency on these issues. Many of his concerns echo those raised by the Anthropic co-founder Dario Amodei, but Dr. Amodei’s warnings have put him at odds with the Pentagon, the White House and much of the tech industry.盖茨说，对于为何这些问题没有引起更多紧迫感，他感到“震惊”。他的许多担忧与Anthropic联合创始人达里奥·阿莫代伊提出的担忧相呼应，但阿莫代伊的警告让他与五角大楼、白宫以及大部分科技行业产生了分歧。盖茨先生表示，对他而言，人工智能及其带来的风险是一个与全球健康同样重要的问题。 Chona Kasinger for The New York Times“You have people attacking the person who’s the most open about the downsides,” Mr. Gates said.“人们反而去攻击那个最坦率地指出弊端的人，”盖茨说。(The Times has sued OpenAI and Microsoft, claiming copyright infringement of news content related to A.I. systems. The two companies have denied those claims.)（《纽约时报》起诉了OpenAI和微软，指控其在与人工智能系统相关的新闻内容上侵犯了版权。这两家公司否认了这些指控。）Along with global health issues, Mr. Gates vowed to make his A.I. concern part of every conversation he had with world leaders. “I only have two issues where I’m going to say, ‘Please think more about this, please care more about this,’” he said.盖茨还承诺，要将他对人工智能的担忧与全球健康问题一起纳入他与世界各国领导人的每一次对话中。“我只有在这两个事项上会说：‘请多考虑一下这个问题，请多关注一下这个问题’，”他说。Mr. Gates acknowledged that he was in an odd spot: He has arguably done as much as anyone in the world to evangelize for and shape the modern computer industry. But now he is warning that the technology it is creating presents global risks.盖茨承认他处于一个尴尬的境地：可以说，在倡导和塑造现代计算机行业方面，他做出的贡献几乎无人可及。但现在他却警告称，该行业正在创造的技术带来了全球性风险。“I don’t like bringing bad news to people, and I don’t like saying that innovation may be a net negative,” he said. “But that’s where we are.”“我不喜欢给人们带来坏消息，我也不喜欢说创新可能会带来净负面影响，”他说。“但这就是我们目前的处境。”Karen Weise为时报报道科技新闻，常驻西雅图，主要关注亚马逊和微软这两家极具具影响力的公司。翻译：晋其角点击查看本文英文版。