Back-to-Market Season: 5 Forces Will Dictate the TrendS&P 500SPCFD:SPXSwissquoteThe return to the markets looks particularly interesting. After a summer marked by questions surrounding long-term US rates, the trajectory of inflation, the Fed’s monetary policy and the continuation of the investment cycle in artificial intelligence, September could be a decisive month for market direction. In my view, five major forces will genuinely drive the US stock market. The table below describes the 5 major fundamental factors that will shape the stock market trend in September. First force: the Fed. This is obviously the number one factor. The September calendar is particularly busy, with employment data, CPI on September 11 and, above all, the FOMC meeting on September 15-16. The Fed will have to balance inflation, which needs to continue slowing, against a labor market that could show signs of weakness. The September 4 NFP will therefore be a first major test. Then CPI will follow, before the Fed’s decision. Finally, the September 30 PCE will complete the picture. Kevin Warsh’s message and, above all, the new “dot plot” could trigger a major repricing of rate expectations. Second force: US long-term rates. This is probably the main risk independent of the Fed. Even if the central bank eases monetary policy, a persistent rise in the 10-year and 30-year yields could continue to weigh on the valuation multiples of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. The US budget deficit, Treasury issuance, inflation and demand for US debt will therefore need to be monitored very closely. A rate zone of 4.5-5.5% already represents an area of tension; above 5.5%, the restrictive effect would become much more significant. Third force: the AI and technology cycle. After NVIDIA, the market will closely watch the results from Broadcom, Oracle and then Micron. The issue goes far beyond quarterly earnings: the key question is whether hyperscalers’ capital expenditure continues to increase and whether demand for AI infrastructure remains strong enough to justify current valuations. Fourth force: oil and geopolitics. Iran, the Middle East and, above all, the Strait of Hormuz will remain major variables. A sharp rise in oil prices would represent an additional inflationary risk and could considerably complicate the Fed’s task. The scenario to avoid would be an oil shock that simultaneously slows growth and reignites inflation: in other words, a risk of stagflation. Fifth force: US growth and the consumer. ISM Services, JOLTS, NFP, personal spending, followed by Costco and Nike earnings, will help measure the strength of the US economy. Because behind the resilience of the indices lies a fundamental question: how long can the US consumer continue to support growth? In summary, September will therefore be a genuine stress test for the markets. Fed, long-term rates, AI, oil and consumption: these five forces will determine whether the uptrend can continue or whether markets need to enter a consolidation phase. And beyond this back-to-market period, another question is already beginning to emerge: could 2027 become a particularly favorable year for equities? Historically, the third year of the US presidential cycle has delivered the best average performance, with a return close to 14%. It is obviously too early to draw a conclusion from this, but it provides an additional element supporting a constructive medium-term outlook. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. 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