MAXINE JOSELOW, LEO SANDS2026年8月28日周四，裹挟着泥沙和瓦砾的洪水汹涌穿过尼泊尔北部拉苏瓦县波特科西河，其河道经过冲刷已变宽。 Atul Loke for The New York TimesClimate change is heating up the Himalayas and supercharging the risk of disasters like the deadly flash flooding in Nepal and Tibet, though scientists are still determining the exact cause of this week’s catastrophe.气候变化正使喜马拉雅地区升温，大幅增加类似尼泊尔和中国西藏地区此次致命山洪的灾害风险，不过科学家们仍在确定本周这场灾难的确切原因。A group of glaciologists and geologists said on Thursday that the flooding was probably unleashed after an enormous chunk of bedrock collapsed underneath a glacier, triggering a landslide high in the mountains. At the same time, a chunk of ice snapped off the glacier itself and cascaded thousands of feet to the valley below, the scientists said.一组冰川学家和地质学家周四表示，此次洪水很可能是由冰川下一大块基岩坍塌，在高山上引发滑坡所致。科学家还表示，与此同时，一块冰体从冰川脱落，沿着山坡倾泻数千英尺坠入下方山谷。As humans warm the planet by burning fossil fuels, the Himalayas are losing their permafrost, a mixture of soil, rocks and organic matter that has remained frozen for thousands of years. The thawing permafrost is destabilizing the foundation underneath glaciers, raising the risks of precisely these kinds of landslides and glacial collapses.随着人类燃烧化石燃料导致全球变暖，喜马拉雅地区正在失去永久冻土——一种由土壤、岩石和有机物混合而成、已冻结数千年的物质。永久冻土融化正使冰川底部的基础变得不稳定，从而增加了此类滑坡和冰川崩塌的风险。Data shows that glacial failures — the scientific term for a category of events that includes ice avalanches, glacier detachments and rock-ice avalanches — have happened dozens of times since 1900 in the China-Nepal border region that was the site of this week’s devastation.数据显示，自1900年以来，在本周受灾的中尼边境地区已发生数十次冰川溃决（一个涵盖冰崩、冰川脱落和岩冰崩的科学术语）。“Permafrost has been the cryospheric glue that’s held the rock and the ice and the glaciers together for millennia, and now we’re getting increasing evidence that it’s being weakened by warming trends,” said Alton C. Byers, a senior research associate at the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research at the University of Colorado at Boulder.“永久冻土几千年来一直是把岩石、冰和冰川粘合在一起的冰冻胶水，而现在越来越多的证据表明，它正因变暖趋势遭到削弱，”科罗拉多大学博尔德分校北极与高山研究所高级研究员奥尔顿·C·拜尔斯说。Dr. Byers, who plans to travel to Nepal next month to meet with communities confronting flood risks, suggested a new name for the phenomenon: “not-so-permanent permafrost.”拜尔斯计划下个月前往尼泊尔，与面临洪水风险的社区会面，他为这一现象提出了一个新名称：“并不永久的永久冻土”。周四，尼泊尔特里舒利的一处被泥浆淹没的区域。周三，大块的冰川冰、泥沙和岩石沿河流倾泻而下，淹没了该地区。The landslide and glacial collapse took place on the north face of Langtang Lirung, a mountain in northern Nepal near the border with Tibet, at an elevation of around 17,000 feet. Millions of metric tons of rock and ice fell, pulverizing into mud and water as the torrent surged down the mountainside.山体滑坡和冰川崩塌发生在朗唐里隆峰北麓海拔约5200米的地方，这座山峰位于尼泊尔北部靠近西藏的边境。数百万吨岩石和冰块坠落，在洪流冲下山坡的过程中粉碎成泥浆和水。Ashim Sattar, an assistant professor at the Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar who studies Himalayan glaciers, said that while it was too early to rule out other factors, warming temperatures caused by climate change may have destabilized the mountain slope.布巴内什瓦尔印度理工学院助理教授、研究喜马拉雅冰川的阿希姆·萨塔尔表示，虽然现在排除其他因素为时过早，但气候变化导致的升温可能已经使山坡变得不稳定。“As the glaciers retreat and the permafrost melts, we see that these slopes become more susceptible to failure,” Dr. Sattar said, adding, “There’s a very straight link between climate change and these types of disasters.”“随着冰川退化和永久冻土融化，我们看到这些山坡变得更容易失稳，”萨塔尔说，并且“气候变化与这类灾害之间存在非常直接的联系”。Still, scientists cautioned that climate change was not the sole, immediate factor behind the flooding, which has killed hundreds of people and left more than 1,400 missing. They noted that teams of researchers were still studying a wide set of data from satellite imagery and other sources, which could take months.尽管如此，科学家们提醒说，气候变化并非此次造成数百人死亡、1400多人失踪的洪水的唯一直接因素。他们指出，研究团队仍在研究来自卫星图像和其他来源的大量数据，这可能需要数月时间。“I don’t think we can simply say this is as a result of climate change,” said Stuart Dunning, a professor of applied geomorphology at Newcastle University in England. “It’s likely a whole variety of factors that are long-term, along with possible short-term things like a strong snow melt component in the last few days.”“我认为我们不能简单地说这是气候变化的结果，”英国纽卡斯尔大学应用地貌学教授斯图尔特·邓宁说。“这很可能是多种长期因素造成的，同时还可能有短期因素，比如过去几天的强融雪成分。”Dr. Byers said that thawing permafrost was a relatively new concept for some residents of flood-prone communities in northern Nepal. He said residents and researchers alike have tended to focus on a related risk: Melting glaciers are creating unstable lakes all across the Himalayas.拜尔斯说，对于尼泊尔北部易发洪水社区的居民来说，永久冻土融化是一个相对较新的概念。他说，居民和研究人员都倾向于关注一个相关的风险：冰川融化正在整个喜马拉雅地区形成不稳定的湖泊。When an avalanche or earthquake causes falling rocks or snow to land on these lakes, it can set off a flood that engulfs everything in its path, including entire villages, tourist lodges and hydropower plants. The phenomenon is known as a glacial lake outburst flood, or GLOF, and the result can be similar to this week’s tragedy.当雪崩或地震导致岩石或积雪落入这些湖泊时，就可能引发洪水，吞噬沿途的一切，包括整个村庄、游客客栈和水电站。这种现象被称为冰湖溃决洪水，其结果可能与本周的悲剧类似。At the outset of the flooding on Wednesday, some scientists speculated that such an outburst had caused the destruction. But initial satellite data appears to show that an overflowing glacial lake was not involved, said Umesh K. Haritashya, the director of the sustainability program at the University of Dayton.在周三洪水发生之初，一些科学家推测可能是这种溃决导致了破坏。但初步卫星数据似乎显示，此次事件不涉及冰湖泛滥，代顿大学可持续发展项目主任乌梅什·K·哈里塔什亚说。“There is common confusion about glacial lakes whenever something like this happens in this area,” Dr. Haritashya said. “But there are other hazards in these mountains that, going forward, scientists and policymakers need to be looking at carefully after these recent events.”“每当该地区发生此类事件时，人们通常会对冰湖产生误解，”哈里塔什亚说。“但这些山区还存在其他危险，在近期这些事件之后，科学家和政策制定者需要仔细研究。”Nepal’s Department of Hydrology and Meteorology operates a network of sensors and gauges that monitor the water levels of some glacial lakes and connected rivers. When the network detects a potential outburst, officials alert downstream communities.尼泊尔水文气象局运营着一个传感和测量仪器网络，用于监测部分冰湖及其相连河流的水位。当该网络检测到潜在的溃决时，官员们会向下游社区发出警报。But Austin Lord, a senior fellow in the Energy, Water and Sustainability program at the Stimson Center, a nonprofit research organization, said that this early warning system was not designed to detect this week’s flash flooding.但非营利研究机构斯廷森中心能源、水资源与可持续发展项目高级研究员奥斯汀·洛德表示，这个预警系统并非为检测本周这种山洪而设计。“This type of flash flooding, because of the speed at which it moves, means that kind of conventional system is ill-equipped,” he said.“这类山洪由于移动速度极快，意味着传统系统根本无法应对，”他说。Maxine Joselow自华盛顿为时报报道气候变化和环境新闻。Leo Sands是时报突发新闻中心记者，常驻伦敦。翻译：经雷点击查看本文英文版。