ADAM ENTOUS, JULIAN E. BARNES2026年8月28日中央情报局局长约翰·拉特克利夫本周秘密访问莫斯科，向俄罗斯联邦安全局局长亚历山大·博尔特尼科夫转达紧急信息。 Kenny Holston/The New York TimesJohn Ratcliffe, the C.I.A. director, made a secretive visit to Moscow this week to privately share his bleak assessment of the state of the Russian war against Ukraine, and to urge the Russians to cut a deal before their military and economic situation gets worse, current and former officials said.现任和前任官员表示，中央情报局局长约翰·拉特克利夫本周秘密访问了莫斯科，私下分享了他对俄罗斯在乌克兰战争现状的悲观评估，并敦促俄方在其军事和经济状况进一步恶化前达成协议。Mr. Ratcliffe delivered the message to Aleksandr V. Bortnikov, the head of Russia’s F.S.B. intelligence service, and made no threats about potential consequences for the Russian side should President Vladimir V. Putin ignore the C.I.A. director’s assessment and choose to continue fighting.拉特克利夫将这一信息传达给了俄罗斯联邦安全局局长亚历山大·博尔特尼科夫，并且没有发出任何威胁，未说明如果普京总统无视中情局局长的评估并选择继续作战，俄方可能会面临什么后果。C.I.A. analysts have long questioned whether Mr. Putin’s advisers have given him honest assessments of the war’s trajectory and toll.中情局的分析人士长期以来一直质疑，普京的顾问们是否就战争的走向和代价向他提供了如实评估。The C.I.A. has long maintained communications channels with the F.S.B. and Russia’s foreign intelligence service, which is known as the S.V.R.中情局长期以来一直与俄罗斯联邦安全局以及俄罗斯对外情报局保持着沟通渠道。Officials said Mr. Ratcliffe’s intelligence channel with Bortnikov runs parallel to separate channels that President Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law, have established with other senior advisers to Mr. Putin.官员们表示，拉特克利夫与博尔特尼科夫之间的情报渠道与特朗普总统特使史蒂夫·维特科夫及总统女婿贾里德·库什纳同普京其他高级顾问之间建立的独立渠道是平行运作的。Some officials said they hoped that Mr. Putin, a former intelligence officer himself, would see a message from the C.I.A. director as more urgent and credible than communications through normal diplomatic channels.一些官员表示，普京本人也曾是情报官员，他们希望普京会认为由中情局局长传达的信息比常规外交渠道的沟通更为紧迫和可信。For much of last year, Mr. Trump and some of his top advisers appeared to hold the belief that a Russian battlefield victory over Ukraine was inevitable because of Russia’s larger population and its nuclear arsenal.在去年的大部分时间里，特朗普及其部分高级顾问似乎认为，鉴于俄罗斯庞大的人口基数和核武库，俄罗斯在战场上战胜乌克兰是不可避免的。But the Russians have suffered massive losses, and their battlefield gains have stalled.但俄方遭受了巨大损失，其战场推进也已停滞。It is not clear whether Mr. Ratcliffe’s message presaged any change in U.S. policy toward Russia or Ukraine.目前尚不清楚拉特克利夫传达的信息是否预示着美国对俄或对乌政策将发生变化。Mr. Ratcliffe’s visit was the latest effort by the Trump administration to breathe new life into stalled negotiations. It has become increasingly clear that Ukraine is not going to give up its fight in the east, even with reduced U.S. military support.拉特克利夫此访是特朗普政府为重启陷入僵局的谈判所做的最新努力。越来越明显的是，即使美国减少了军事支持，乌克兰也不会放弃在东部的战斗。Given what he presented as the bleak military and economic reality for Russia, Mr. Ratcliffe told Mr. Bortnikov that he believed it was time for Moscow to engage in serious negotiations to end the war.鉴于他所描述的俄罗斯惨淡的军事和经济现状，拉特克利夫告诉博尔特尼科夫，他认为，莫斯科是时候参与旨在结束战争的严肃谈判了。Since Mr. Trump’s return to office, the United States has scaled back its military support to the Ukrainians, forcing them to rely more heavily on European partners.自特朗普重返白宫以来，美国缩减了对乌克兰人的军事支持，迫使他们更加依赖欧洲伙伴。The C.I.A. has maintained its close intelligence partnerships with the Ukrainians, which began more than a decade ago.中情局则继续维持着与乌克兰人密切的情报合作伙伴关系，这种关系始于十多年前。The private message that Mr. Ratcliffe delivered to Mr. Bortnikov about Ukraine echoed some of the director’s public statements.拉特克利夫向博尔特尼科夫私下传达的关于乌克兰的信息与这位局长的部分公开言论相呼应。Last month, Mr. Ratcliffe spoke out pointedly about Russian troop losses during the war, and Moscow’s inability to advance on the battlefield. He noted that the life expectancy of a Russian soldier on the front lines was less than 35 minutes.上个月，拉特克利夫直言不讳地谈及了俄军在战争中的伤亡情况，以及莫斯科在战场上无法推进的窘境。他指出，俄罗斯前线士兵的预期寿命不到35分钟。And he added that Russia had gained only about 1 percent of Ukraine’s total territory in the 18 months since he became C.I.A. director, a development he attributed to Ukraine’s “mastery” of drone technology.他还称，在他担任中情局局长以来的18个月里，俄罗斯仅占领了乌克兰约1%的领土，他将这一状况归因于乌克兰对无人机技术的“精通”。Before Mr. Ratcliffe met with Mr. Bortnikov in Moscow, he spoke with his Ukrainian counterparts, assuring them that he would be exploring Russian positions, not making concessions on behalf of the Ukrainians.在前往莫斯科与博尔特尼科夫会面之前，拉特克利夫与乌克兰情报部门对等官员通了话，向他们保证此行是为了探明俄方立场，而非代表乌克兰人做出让步。European diplomats believe there may be an opening to secure a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine in the coming winter months, given the largely stalled Russian offensive in the Donbas, and because of Ukraine’s ability to continue imposing deep costs on Russia with its drone warfare.欧洲外交官们认为，鉴于俄罗斯在顿巴斯的攻势已基本停滞，再加上乌克兰有能力利用其无人机战法，继续让俄罗斯付出沉重代价，今冬可能会出现促成俄乌和平协议的契机。Some of those European officials have been pressing the Trump administration to add a national security official to the mix of officials pressing the Russians for a peace deal, someone who could deliver the kind of tough message Mr. Ratcliffe delivered this week.一些欧洲官员一直敦促特朗普政府在向俄方施压以求达成和平协议的团队中增加一名国家安全官员，此人应能传达拉特克利夫本周所传达的那种强硬信息。The Ukrainians have long viewed Mr. Witkoff and Mr. Kushner as too close to the Russians. They view Mr. Ratcliffe, a longtime Russia hawk, as a potentially more neutral mediator.乌克兰人一直认为维特科夫和库什纳与俄罗斯人走得太近。他们认为长期以来的对俄鹰派拉特克利夫可能是更为中立的调解人。Mr. Trump has repeatedly used Mr. Ratcliffe as a discreet messenger.特朗普曾多次将拉特克利夫用作谨慎的传话人。In January, he became the first cabinet-level official to visit Venezuela after U.S. special operation forces seized President Nicolás Maduro.今年1月，在美国特种作战部队抓获马杜罗总统后，拉特克利夫成为首位访问委内瑞拉的内阁级官员。In May, he traveled to Cuba, giving its leaders a bleak assessment of the state of the Cuban economy in the face of a U.S. oil blockade. He urged the country to make a series of sweeping political and economic changes before the situation got worse.今年5月，他前往古巴，向该国领导人详细阐述了在美国石油封锁下古巴经济惨淡现状的评估。他敦促该国在局势进一步恶化前，进行一系列全面的政治和经济改革。Direct contacts between U.S. and Russian spy chiefs have been sporadic in recent years.近年来，美俄情报首脑之间的直接接触时断时续。In November 2021, William J. Burns, the C.I.A. director in the Biden administration, met face to face in Moscow with Mr. Bortnikov and other top Russian officials to warn Mr. Putin against launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.2021年11月，拜登政府时期的中情局局长威廉·伯恩斯在莫斯科与博尔特尼科夫等俄罗斯高官进行了面对面会晤，警告普京不要对乌克兰发动全面入侵。A year later, in November 2022, Turkey hosted a face-to-face meeting in Ankara between Mr. Burns and Sergei Naryshkin, the leader of Russia’s foreign intelligence service. U.S. intelligence agencies had intercepted Russian communications about the possible use of a nuclear device by the Russians to slow Ukrainian advances in that fall’s counteroffensive. Mr. Burns warned Mr. Naryshkin of serious consequences if the Russians acted on the alleged threat.一年后的2022年11月，土耳其在安卡拉安排了伯恩斯与俄罗斯对外情报局局长谢尔盖·纳雷什金的面对面会晤。当时，美国情报机构截获了俄方的通讯，内容涉及俄罗斯可能会使用核装置来阻滞乌克兰在当年秋季反攻中的推进。伯恩斯警告纳雷什金，如果俄方将这一所谓威胁付诸行动，将面临严重后果。The Turkish hosts wanted the meeting to be the start of a lasting channel of direct communication between Washington and Moscow to reduce tensions. But the C.I.A. was angry at Moscow when, after the meeting, the Russian side made it public. Mr. Burns and Mr. Naryshkin did not have a second face-to-face meeting, though they continued to communicate occasionally by phone.作为东道主的土耳其希望这次会晤能成为华盛顿与莫斯科之间建立持久直接沟通渠道的开端，以缓和紧张局势。但会后俄方将此事公之于众，这激怒了中情局。伯恩斯与纳雷什金此后没有进行第二次面谈，尽管两人偶尔还会通过电话交流。After Mr. Trump took office last year, Mr. Ratcliffe and Mr. Bortnikov worked out the details of a prisoner swap, but this week’s face-to-face meeting in Moscow was their first.去年特朗普上任后，拉特克利夫与博尔特尼科夫曾敲定了一项换囚协议的细节，但本周在莫斯科是两人首次面对面会晤。Adam Entous是《纽约时报》驻华盛顿调查记者，主要关注国家安全和请报事务。Julian E. Barnes为《纽约时报》报道美国情报机构和国际安全事务。他撰写安全相关议题已有20余年。翻译：晋其角点击查看本文英文版。