ADA: Between the End of Wave IV and the Beginning of Wave VCardanoCRYPTO:ADAUSDMehdi_Abbasi_EWPFrom the historical low in 2017 around $0.01776, Cardano’s long-term structure shows the potential for the development of a major impulsive cycle. The initial advance, followed by the continuation of the move into the 2021 all-time high, can be analyzed within a larger five-wave structure. After that peak, however, the market entered a deep and time-consuming corrective phase. From a long-term Elliott Wave perspective, one of the most important questions is the relationship between the larger-degree Waves I, II, III, and IV. Following the completion of Wave III at the all-time high, the sharp decline and the subsequent sideways and corrective price action suggest that the market may have been spending time developing a more complex Wave IV. On the chart, this correction is being examined as a combination of corrective structures. The presence of zigzags, complex corrections, and price movement within corrective channels suggests that the decline should not necessarily be viewed as one simple and straightforward move. Aggressive Scenario In the aggressive view, the larger corrective structure may be approaching completion. Once the final portion of Wave IV is completed, ADA could begin the early stages of a higher-degree Wave V. Under this scenario, the future advance must first prove itself through impulsive structure at lower degrees. The development of a clear five-wave advance, followed by a three-wave correction, and then the formation of nested 1–2 structures could provide some of the first serious evidence that a larger bullish cycle has begun. If this structure develops as expected, a break and sustained move above important structural resistance zones could initially open the path toward the previous all-time high and later toward higher targets. The $2.56 and $6.09 regions are being monitored as important structural target zones. If Wave V develops into an extended structure, significantly higher levels could also become possible. However, these targets should not be treated as certainties. The market must first develop the necessary impulsive structure before such projections gain stronger confirmation. Conservative Scenario The conservative scenario assumes that the larger correction may not yet be fully complete. In this case, current or future rallies could still be part of a corrective structure, meaning that ADA may experience another decline or a final portion of Wave IV before the beginning of the main bullish market. Under this view, the 50%–61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone becomes particularly important. Price behavior around this region may help determine whether the market is forming an important long-term low or whether the corrective structure still requires more time and complexity. The $0.5173 level, followed by lower structural regions, should be monitored carefully. A breakdown of key support structures could change the short-term wave count and increase the probability of further corrective development. The Key Elliott Wave Principle In Elliott Wave analysis, forecasting price without considering structure can be misleading. It is not only about how high ADA may eventually rise—the more important question is: How does price get there? If the market develops a clear five-wave advance from a future low, followed by a three-wave correction and then nested 1–2 structures, the probability of a powerful higher-degree Third Wave would increase. However, if price continues to advance through overlapping, three-wave, and corrective movements, then the possibility that Wave IV or the larger corrective structure is still developing must remain on the table. At this stage, the analyst’s most important job is not to declare the future with certainty. The structure that price develops will ultimately determine which scenario is correct. — Mr. Nobody | Elliott Wave Principle Cardano Aug 14, 2023 Bull Market or One leg Complete Corrective