GBPUSD breaks above its 100-day moving average as Iran headlines pressure the dollarThe GBPUSD is pushing to new highs for the day as reports of a potential compromise between the US and Iran send oil prices and US yields lower, while putting pressure on the dollar.According to Al Araby Al Jadeed, Qatar and Pakistan have presented a proposal that includes a secret IAEA visit to Iranian nuclear sites and the release of $6 billion in interest on frozen Iranian funds. The proposal reportedly has US approval and some prior Iranian support, although differences remain and official confirmation is still needed.The market is responding to the prospect of reduced tensions. December crude oil futures have fallen below $96 after trading above $101 earlier. Meanwhile, the US 10-year yield is down 4.6 basis points to 5.089%, moving further away from last week’s high near 5.36%.Lower oil prices could ease some inflation concerns, while falling US yields reduce the dollar’s interest-rate support. The GBPUSD has been the biggest mover, with buyers pushing the pair above its 100-day moving average for the first time since September 16. Remember, a higher GBPUSD means a stronger pound relative to the dollar—and a weaker dollar relative to the pound.The headlines provide the catalyst. The technicals define the next steps.The break above the 100-day moving average at 1.33875 is a positive development for buyers. Staying above that level would be the best-case scenario for keeping the upside momentum intact.However, the price is moving into an area where buyers have more work to do:1.33875: The 100-day moving average and the first support level following the break.1.34056: The 50% midpoint of the decline from the August 2026 high to last week’s low at 1.3136.1.34314: The 200-day moving average and the next major topside hurdle.Today’s high has reached 1.3409, taking the price just above the 50% midpoint. Buyers have cleared that level briefly. Now they need to show they can stay above it and build toward the 200-day moving average.The midpoint matters because it divides the prior decline in half. Getting above it means buyers have recovered more than half of that move lower. Holding above it would strengthen the recovery story.Why sellers may lean against this areaEven with the bullish momentum, a rally into major technical levels can attract selling.Traders who bought earlier at lower levels may take some profit. Sellers may also lean against resistance because the levels give them a reference point for defining and limiting risk. If the price breaks above their chosen resistance level and stays above it, the reason for the trade weakens.That does not guarantee a reversal. It explains why the rally could slow as the price works through the midpoint and toward the 200-day moving average.What would weaken the bullish move?The first test is whether buyers can hold above 1.33875. A move back below the 100-day moving average would take some shine off the breakout and shift attention to 1.3371, Friday’s high and last week’s high.I would not want to see the price move below that level on a correction. A break above last week’s high followed by a move back below it would suggest buyers are struggling to sustain the breakout. That could lead to some unraveling of today’s bullish momentum.The buyers have made an important move. Now they need to defend it. Stay above the 100-day moving average, and buyers retain the stronger position. Get above—and stay above—the midpoint and then the 200-day moving average, and the bullish story gains further confirmation.In the video above I talked about the technicals driving the run in more detail. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.