Candidate Quality Shifts the Senate Map

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Cook Political Report: “In Senate races, the quality of individual candidates can be magnified in ways that defy national trends, especially in midterm years. That’s the impetus behind three moves we are making today: two in favor of Democrats in South Carolina and Mississippi, and one towards Republicans in Minnesota.”“The shifts in Democrats’ direction — South Carolina moves from Likely Republican to Lean Republican, and Mississippi moves from Solid Republican to Likely Republican — are further evidence that Democrats have expanded the map into red territory even in the Deep South. However, both races also feature unique factors that are making each more competitive than it should be.”