Monero (XMR) — Bearish Pullback Within the Larger Uptrend XMR / Tether PERPETUAL FUTURESMEXC:XMRUSDT.Psean78808Monero (XMR) — Bearish Pullback Within the Larger Uptrend | October 23–28, 2026 MARKET OUTLOOK: SELLERS CONTROL THE TACTICAL STRUCTURE; FRESH LOCATION MATTERS XMR’s larger uptrend remains intact, but the tactical decline has moved below recent accepted value. The preferred opportunity is a newly failed rebound. A countertrend long requires a demonstrably defended lower base. The initial review was completed October 23, circa 22:11–22:23 UTC, with the Plan chart updated around 23:21 UTC. All levels refer to MEXC:XMRUSDT.P, quoted in USDT per XMR. ACROSS THE TIMEFRAMES The weekly advance remains constructive, while the daily chart shows a substantial pullback from the observed 662.80 weekly high: at once, a topping tail and rejection from a pitchfork median. On 4H, price action lost the Fast Kama and weakened around and violated a rising pitchfork channel. The broader 572–585 demand region is presently being tested. The 48m and 24m charts retain lower highs and lower lows. Developing TPO value shifted lower, with the earlier October 23 distribution at 603–615 and POC at 608.50. These developing profile references require refreshing at the next daily roll. Momentum and selling pressure support the tactical bearish interpretation. Oversold readings alone do not establish a bottom. Funding, open-interest and liquidation coverage was insufficient to attribute the move confidently to forced liquidations or position covering. PRINCIPAL DECISION LEVELS 603–608.50: Higher rebound and repair area. 593–595.50: Nearer failed-rebound area. 587.25: Earlier day-low reference, subsequently broken. 584.50: Historical POC and first objective for a new lower-defense setup. 581: Lower-defense acceptance gate. 571.18: Observed weekly low and lower structural reference. CONFIRMATION AND CONDITIONAL PLANS By 'Confirmation' we mean: Two consecutive FULL, completed 24m regular-session closes strictly beyond the gate, followed by a separate, later completed 6m retest. Longs need a higher low closing above the gate; shorts need a failed reclaim/lower high closing below it. Retests inside the second 24m candle do not qualify. 1. Fresh failure at 593–595.50. After a new rebound into this area, require confirmation below 593. Place the stop above the actual rejection swing plus a buffer. The nearest current support must be identified before calculating reward. This scenario remains unpriced until current structure supplies a valid first objective and at least 2 estimated net R. 2. Separate higher rebound into 603–608.50. Require a fresh rejection, confirmation below 603 and the later failed retest. The mapped first objective is 595.50, unless a nearer obstacle forms. Illustrative geometry: entry 602.90, stop 618.49, T1 595.50. Using the observed 617.99 high plus a 0.50 buffer produces only 0.47R gross and approximately 0.37R net. A new, verified lower high is needed to improve the geometry. 3. Fresh lower defense. After a new test and defense within 571.18–581, require confirmation above 581. T1 is 584.50; 587.25 becomes relevant only after renewed acceptance higher. Illustrative geometry: entry 581.10, stop 570.68, T1 584.50. Using the observed weekly low minus 0.50 gives 0.33R gross and approximately 0.19R net. This is ineligible. The earlier rebound through T1 does not validate a later entry under that old setup. The cost assumption is 1.20 USDT per XMR round trip, deducted from reward and added to risk. At 2.40, the higher-short and lower-long examples fall to approximately 0.28R and 0.08R. Actual fees, spread, slippage and applicable funding must be checked. EVENTS, EXPIRY AND REPAIR Wednesday’s Fed decision is scheduled for 14:00 EDT, with the press conference at 14:30. This plan retires pending entries at 13:45 and requires fresh assessment after each event. A completed 24m recross resets confirmation; a structural-stop breach cancels the setup. Pending setups expire on T1 trading after the probe but before entry, six full 24m bars after the second confirming close, material news, or the next 00:00 UTC daily reset—whichever comes first. Sustained recovery through 595.50 would improve the immediate structure. Retained acceptance through 603–608.50 would require reassessing the bearish preference. NOTATE BENE MA's: Purple is Fast KAMA (10,2,30); pink is Slow KAMA (10,5,30). PITCHFORK CHANNEL: The updated descending fork supplies trend context. Light-gray lines describe the fitted path, gray fill the core, and burgundy outer areas its extensions. Sloping boundaries change price with time; warning areas do not independently confirm reversal.