Palantir (PLTR) — Recovery Attempt Inside Lower ValuePalantir Technologies Inc. Class ABATS:PLTRsean78808Palantir (PLTR) — Recovery Attempt Inside Lower Value | October 23–28, 2026 MARKET OUTLOOK: LOCAL IMPROVEMENT, WITH ACCEPTANCE STILL UNPROVEN PLTR recovered from Friday’s 190.57 low but finished immediately below a 196.95 value-area high. The rebound improved the tactical picture without restoring the higher distribution established earlier in the week. The next decision: Can buyers defend 194.85 and build acceptance higher, or will another test of 196.95–197.49 fail? Preferred action: Assess a fresh response at an edge. The 195.75–195.83 middle offers close-spaced obstacles and limited room for a new position. The review was completed October 23, circa 22:18–22:23 UTC. Friday’s daily close was 196.75 on the NASDAQ-labelled Cboe/BATS share feed. No fresh entry satisfying the full confirmation and reward requirements was verified. ACROSS THE TIMEFRAMES Weekly structure remains constructive after the rebound from 186.16. On the daily chart, however, price action remains below the Fast KAMA circa 201, with the larger rejection from 209–213 still unrepaired. The 4H chart describes recovery near the lower portion of a rising channel. On 48m and 24m, overlapping trade around 195–197 remains below the previous 199–203 resistance area. TPO points of control declined from 199.43 on October 21 to 198.53 on October 22 and 195.83 on October 23. That sequence shows lower accepted value despite Friday’s recovery. Short-term momentum improved on the 6m and 24m charts, but 4H momentum remained mixed and trading participation was subdued. PRINCIPAL DECISION LEVELS 198.53 and 199.95: Higher repair references. 196.95–197.49: Immediate upper decision area. 195.75–195.83: Congested rotational middle. 194.85: Lower defense and acceptance gate. Circa 193, then 192: Lower demand checkpoints. 190.57: Friday’s low. CONFIRMATION AND CONDITIONAL PLANS By 'Confirmation' we mean: Two consecutive FULL, completed 24m regular-session closes strictly beyond the gate, followed by a separate, later completed 6m retest. Longs need a higher low closing above the gate; shorts need a failed reclaim/lower high closing below it. Retests inside the second 24m candle do not qualify. 1. Fresh defense of 194.85. After a new lower-edge probe, require confirmation above 194.85. Place the stop below the actual defended swing plus a buffer. T1 is 195.75. The nearby 195.83 POC is the next obstacle; 196.95 requires acceptance through both. Illustrative geometry: entry 194.90, stop 190.47, T1 195.75. The fallback stop is 0.10 below Friday’s low. This produces only 0.19R gross and approximately 0.15R net. A closer, genuine higher low is needed. With that entry and target, the base-cost calculation would require a stop at 194.70 or higher to reach 2 net R. That is a feasibility limit, not permission to invent support. 2. Fresh failure at 196.95–197.49. After a new upper-edge probe, require confirmation below 196.95 and the separate failed retest. T1 is 195.83, followed conditionally by 195.75 and 194.85. Illustrative geometry: entry 196.90, stop 197.59, T1 195.83. Using Friday’s high plus 0.10 gives 1.55R gross and approximately 1.10R net: insufficient. The assumed round-trip cost is 0.15 per share, deducted from reward and added to risk. Doubling it to 0.30 reduces the lower-long and upper-short examples to approximately 0.12R and 0.78R. New swing structure requires recalculation. A reclaim of 196.95 still faces 197.49 first. Do not skip that high to calculate reward against 198.53. Conversely, accepted failure below 194.85 encounters demand around 193 before 192 and 190.57. EVENTS AND EXECUTION Wednesday’s Fed decision is scheduled for 14:00 EDT, followed by the press conference at 14:30. Retire pending setups at 13:45 under this plan and rebuild after the event response. Microsoft reports after Wednesday’s close, creating another potential AI-sector sentiment catalyst. Palantir’s own earnings are scheduled after the close on November 2, beyond the scope of this outlook. A completed 24m close back across the gate resets confirmation; breach of the structural stop cancels the setup. Pending setups expire when T1 trades after the fresh probe but before entry, six full 24m bars after the second confirming close, at material news, or at the 16:00 EDT cash close—whichever comes first. Refresh against the next cash opening range. An opening above 197.49 faces 198.53 first; an opening below 194.85 requires reassessing lower demand. Closing stub bars do not count as full 24m confirmation. NOTATE BENE MA's: Purple is Fast KAMA (10,2,30); pink is Slow KAMA (10,5,30). PITCHFORK CHANNEL: The updated descending fork supplies trend context. Light-gray lines describe the fitted path, gray fill the core, and burgundy outer areas its extensions. Sloping boundaries change price with time; warning areas do not independently confirm reversal.