CBOT Dow Futures (YM) Rolling Strategy to Position Higher ReturnE-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index FuturesCBOT_MINI_DL:YM1!JimHuangChicagoYM1! The 2026 midterm elections are on November 3rd. On Kalshi, Democrats are priced at 91 percent to control the House and 69 percent to control the Senate. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is the best long-history U.S. stock market benchmark. From 1929 to 2025 we have 97 years of data, covering 16 presidents and 24 four-year terms. We treat the midterm as the midpoint of each presidential term. That splits every term into a first half—years one and two—and a second half—years three and four, giving us 24 pairs of Dow Jones returns. The hypothesis is straightforward: if the midterms have a major impact on returns, the first-half series should show a significantly different result from the second-half series. Test result one: second-half returns are significantly higher. The average two-year Dow Jones return was roughly 8 to 10 percent in the first half and 18 to 22 percent in the second half. Test result two: there are more positive return periods after the midterm. Before the midterms we saw 15 positive periods and 9 negative periods. After the midterms the count was 21 positive periods and only 3 negative periods. The takeaways. Assuming the historical pattern holds, buying stocks after the midterms means an investor is likely to find higher Dow Jones returns in 2027 and 2028 than in 2025 and 2026. There could also be fewer chances of negative returns in 2027 and 2028, which points to less volatility and less loss exposure. I am Jim Huang, TradingView Wizard. I write institutional graded market commentary for the TradingView community. Thanks for watching. If you have any questions, feel free to drop me a note. Until next time, bye for now. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.