XAG/USD Weekly: 100-week EMA lost, 55.70 is the lineSilverOANDA:XAGUSDGovindSatoshiSilver closed the week at 53.90, below the 100-week EMA (55.70) for the first time since February 2024. It is also the first weekly close under the July low at 54.78 and the June low at 55.60, the floor the summer range was built on. RSI 14 closed at 37: weak, but not yet oversold. The structure has been heading this way since August. Weekly highs stepped down from 71.18 to 68.33, 67.55, 62.04 and 61.46, and four of the last five weekly closes were lower, an 18.6% slide from the 66.26 close in mid-September. From the January record (121.67 on the wick, 103.38 the highest weekly close) silver is now 55.7% lower. What still holds: the 200-week EMA at 45.10 is still rising, 16% below price. The uptrend that began in early 2024 is damaged, not broken. Levels I'm watching: - 55.70: the 100-week EMA and the old summer floor. A weekly close back above it makes this a failed breakdown. - 47.50: the October 2025 swing low, the first real shelf below. - 45.10 to 45.55: the 200-week EMA and the late-October 2025 low. Lose that and the 2024 uptrend is over. Thesis: bearish while silver is below 55.70. I would not be adding long exposure until it closes a week back above the 100-week EMA. The honest risk is a squeeze: there have been three single-week rallies of 9 to 11% this year, so one close below an EMA is a signal, not a confirmation. For Australian traders: ASIC caps retail leverage on silver CFDs at 10:1, half of gold's 20:1. This week alone ranged about 10% from high to low (58.61 to 53.03), which at the full 10:1 is the entire margin on the position. A stop above 55.70 sits 3.3% from the close, so size from that distance and assume it can gap. There is a free position size calculator in the SatoshiMacro tools section that works it out in AUD. Not financial advice.