STEVEN ERLANGER2026年10月21日周一，经历周末骚乱后，巴黎伊夫·图迪克街上的一辆被烧毁的汽车。 Kiran Ridley/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesCentrist parties are in trouble in Europe’s largest and most important nations. Anger over low economic growth, high inflation, sizable government debt and poor prospects for the young are feeding protest and populist parties of the far right and far left.中间派政党在欧洲最大、最重要的国家正陷入困境。经济增长低迷、通胀高企、政府债台高筑以及年轻人前景黯淡所引发的愤怒正在催生抗议，带来极右翼和极左翼民粹主义政党的崛起。The mass riots in France, which started as protests over underfunded schools, are a shocking example. But the phenomenon has been building for years, with the perceived failure of liberal democracy to make good on its promises of a better future, especially for the young and the salaried working class.最初只是抗议学校经费不足的法国大规模骚乱就是一个令人震惊的例证。但这一现象已酝酿多年：自由民主制被认为未能兑现创造更美好未来的承诺，对年轻人和受薪工人阶级而言尤其如此。There is a growing perception among many Europeans that traditional parties of the center-left and center-right do not offer real alternatives and are led by an educated elite that has lost its connection to the poor, the workers and the young. Facing rising deficits, expenses and interest rates, governments feel constrained in what they can do to respond.许多欧洲人日益感到，中左和中右的传统政党并未提供真正的替代选项，且由受过教育的精英领导，这些人已与穷人、工人和年轻人脱节。面对不断上升的赤字、开支和利率，各国政府在回应举措上感到束手束脚。Instead, many people are supporting parties like the National Rally of Marine Le Pen, leading the polls for the French presidency on the far right, and France Unbowed of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, on the far-left, running second. In Germany, they are turning to the far-right Alternative for Germany and the far-left Die Linke party.于是，许多人转而支持玛丽娜·勒庞的国民联盟——该党作为极右翼在法国总统民调中领先——以及让-吕克·梅朗雄的不屈法国党，后者作为极左翼排名第二。在德国，选民转向极右翼的德国选择党和极左翼的左翼党。With major elections coming in the next year in four of Europe’s most populous states — Spain, France, Italy and Poland — there are significant challenges coming from more extremist parties. Even in Italy, where protests erupted over the weekend, the right-wing prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, faces a former general, Roberto Vannacci, who is running even further to the right.明年，欧洲四个人口最多的国家——西班牙、法国、意大利和波兰——都将迎来重大选举，来自更极端政党的重大挑战正在逼近。甚至在意大利，周末也爆发了抗议，右翼总理乔治娅·梅洛尼要面对立场更靠右的前将军罗伯托·万纳奇的挑战。利摩日市政厅于周六遭焚毁。Hard-right parties also sit in the governments of the Czech Republic, Finland, Slovakia and Croatia, while Slovenia’s government relies on outside support from one, Alberto Alemanno, a professor of European Law at HEC Paris, recently noted. And competition from even farther to the right is already pushing some of them to harden their positions.巴黎高等商学院欧洲法教授阿尔贝托·阿莱曼诺最近指出，极右翼政党还进入了捷克、芬兰、斯洛伐克和克罗地亚的政府，而斯洛文尼亚政府则依赖一个此类政党的外部支持。来自更右翼的竞争已在推动其中一些政党强化立场。Satisfaction with how democracy is working has been declining dramatically, according to regular opinion polling from the Pew Research Center. In France, Pew found this year, 69 percent of the population is dissatisfied with democracy. In Spain, it is 68 percent. In Italy, 62 percent. In Poland, the newest democracy after years of Soviet occupation, it is 47 percent. In the United States, it is 69 percent.皮尤研究中心的定期民意调查显示，民众对民主运作的满意度一直在急剧下降。皮尤今年发现，法国有69%的人口对民主不满意，西班牙为68%，意大利为62%。经历多年苏联占领后成为最新民主国家的波兰，不满意比例为47%。美国则为69%。There are many reasons put forward for the decline in optimism and faith in centrist politics. But Daron Acemoglu, a Nobel laureate in economics, puts it simply. “We started taking democracy for granted,” he said.对于乐观情绪和对中间派政治的信念为何下降，人们提出了许多解释。但诺贝尔经济学奖得主达龙·阿杰姆奥卢说得直白：“我们开始把民主视为理所当然。”Liberal democracy has failed to keep faith with ordinary citizens, and especially with the larger working class. “If liberalism is to rise again, it must be with the working class at its heart,” he said.自由民主制未能对普通公民守信，对更广大的工人阶级尤其如此。“如果自由主义要再次崛起，它必须以工人阶级为核心，”他说。Shared Prosperity共享繁荣The rapid nationwide spread of the French protests to include workers and pensioners angry at inflation and high interest rates, especially given rising prices for energy and for borrowing costs, points to a larger failure of President Emmanuel Macron’s center-right government and of liberal democracy writ large.法国抗议活动迅速蔓延全国，工人和退休人员也加入其中，他们对通胀和高利率感到愤怒，尤其是能源价格和借贷成本不断上升，这指向总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙的中间偏右政府乃至整个自由民主制的更大失败。The violence of what became riots in many cities is expected only to help Ms. Le Pen and her anti-liberal complaints about immigration and lawlessness.在许多城市，抗议演变为骚乱，其暴力预计只会进一步助长勒庞的声势，以及她关于移民和治安失序的反自由主义抱怨。Mr. Acemoglu, a professor at M.I.T., has tried to provide both an analysis and some prescriptions in a recent book, “What Happened to Liberal Democracy?” In it, he outlines “two broad lines of failure” over the last half-century, which have led to widespread alienation and anti-establishment sentiment.麻省理工学院教授阿杰姆奥卢在新书《自由民主怎么了？》(What Happened to Liberal Democracy?)中试图同时提供分析和处方。他在书中概括了过去半个世纪的“两个广泛的失败”，这些失败导致了普遍的疏离感和反建制情绪。The first is what he calls the failure to deliver on shared prosperity, especially for a salaried working class hit by automation, globalization and sharply increased inequality, and which now feels deep anxiety about artificial intelligence.第一条是他所称的未能兑现共享繁荣，受打击最重的是受薪工人阶级，他们受到自动化、全球化和急剧恶化的不平等的冲击，如今又对人工智能深感焦虑。Leaders have forgotten that a key part of their pact with voters is to “take care of the drains,” he said, to ensure the good functioning of the infrastructure of daily life, from roads to education to health care.他说，领导人忘记了他们与选民契约的一个关键部分是“管好下水道”，即确保日常生活基础设施的良好运转，从道路到教育再到医疗保健。周一，一名市政工作人员在里昂特雷奥广场的巴托尔迪喷泉清理涂鸦。The second, Mr. Acemoglu said in an interview, is “the rise of top-down cultural politics,” whereby a college-educated elite now dominates even traditional Socialist and working-class parties throughout the Western world and in his view patronizes or dismisses the concerns of those who traditionally supported them.阿杰姆奥卢在采访中表示，第二条是“自上而下的文化政治的兴起”。在此进程中，一个受过大学教育的精英群体如今主导着整个西方世界甚至传统的社会党和工人阶级政党，在他看来，这些人对那些传统上支持他们的人所关切的问题摆出居高临下的姿态，或不予理会。As a result, working-class voters are moving toward populist parties on the far left and especially the far right, as in France and Germany, threatening traditional values, shrinking historically “large church” parties of the center and threatening the working of parliamentary democracy.结果，工人阶级选民正转向极左、极右翼的民粹主义政党——后者尤甚，法国和德国的情况即是如此。这威胁到传统价值观，使历史上作为中间派“大帐篷”的政党不断萎缩，并威胁到议会民主的运作。In Britain’s 2024 election, the two long-dominant parties, Labour and Conservative, won their lowest combined vote share in more than a century. The far-right Reform UK party surged in the polls last year, though it has since fallen somewhat.在英国2024年大选中，两个长期主导的政党——工党和保守党——合计得票率创下一个多世纪以来的最低水平。极右翼的英国改革党去年在民调中抬头，尽管此后有所回落。Centrist parties need to regain the trust of voters that they not only hear them but empathize with them, said Steven E. Sokol, president of the American Council on Germany. “A constant in all these countries are the people who feel left behind, who feel they are no part of the prosperity and security they see all around them,” he said.美国德国协会主席史蒂文·E·索科尔表示，中间派政党需要重新赢得选民的信任，让选民相信他们不仅听到了自己的声音，而且同情自己的处境。“所有这些国家的一个不变因素是那些感到被落下的人，他们觉得自己与周围所见的繁荣和安全毫无关系，”他说。The Center Under Stress承压的中心Germany offers another example of the exhaustion and splintering of the center.德国提供了另一个中间派疲惫和分裂的例子。The Volksparteien, or “people’s parties” of the center-right and center-left — the Christian Democratic Union (and its partner, the Christian Social Union), and the Social Democratic Party — alternated running democratic Germany since World War II. But they are being hollowed out, said Mr. Sokol, with workers and the young moving to more extreme parties, like the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and Die Linke.中右和中左的Volksparteien，即“人民党”——基督教民主联盟（及其伙伴基督教社会联盟）和社会民主党——自二战以来交替执掌民主化的德国。但索科尔表示，它们正在被掏空，工人和年轻人正转向更极端的政党，如德国选择党和左翼党。Given the difficulty of forming coherent coalitions now, the two Volksparteien are locked together in a squabbling coalition that is increasingly unpopular and perceived as failing to deliver economic growth and security.鉴于如今组建稳固联盟的难度，两个人民党被锁在一个争吵不断的联盟中，该联盟日益不受欢迎，并被外界认为未能带来经济增长和安全。Under former Chancellor Angela Merkel, the C.D.U. moved to the center, but it was cautious, “risking nothing, even in the face of obvious challenges,” said Norbert Röttgen, a prominent legislator in the party.在前总理安格拉·默克尔领导下，基民盟向中间靠拢，但步伐谨慎，“即使面对明显的挑战也绝对不冒险，”该党著名议员诺贝特·勒特根说。Those challenges included increased migration, a declining export market with China, sharpened tensions with Russia and slow economic growth. The move to the center and Ms. Merkel’s embrace of large-scale immigration, he said, alienated many of the party’s traditional conservative voters.这些挑战包括移民增加、对华出口市场下滑、与俄罗斯紧张关系加剧以及经济增长缓慢。勒特根说，向中间靠拢以及默克尔对大规模移民的接纳疏远了许多该党的传统保守选民。That gave space to the right, filled by the AfD, which is now attracting traditional C.D.U. voters among the working class, Mr. Röttgen said. “But to seriously deliver on our problems requires majorities, and this,” he said, “is our paradox.”勒特根表示，这给右翼留下了空间，被德国选择党填补，该党如今正在吸引工人阶级中的传统基民盟选民。“但要认真解决我们的问题需要多数支持，而这，”他说，“就是我们的悖论。”上个月，民众在德国施韦林市中心参加极右翼德国选择党集会。As for the Social Democrats, they took the path Mr. Acemoglu described of many left-wing parties, where intellectual elites and left-wing academics “conquered the party and disconnected it from its traditional voters,” Mr. Röttgen said.至于社会民主党，勒特根说，他们走了阿杰姆奥卢所描述的许多左翼政党的道路：知识精英和左翼学者“征服了党，并使其与传统的选民脱节”。An average of current opinion polls in Germany shows how hard it is to construct a workable centrist coalition.德国当前民调的平均值显示了构建一个可行的中间派联盟有多么困难。The AfD is the most popular party, with some 28 percent support, followed by the C.D.U./C.S.U., with 19.8 percent. The Greens have 15 percent, and the Social Democrats only 13.1 percent, barely ahead of Die Linke, with 11.3 percent.德国选择党是最受欢迎的政党，支持率约28%，其次是基民盟/基社盟，为19.8%。绿党有15%，社会民主党仅13.1%，勉强领先于左翼党的11.3%。Both mainstream parties are divided internally about how to proceed — for the Christian Democrats, to move closer to the AfD and not just copy some of its policies; for the Social Democrats, to move farther to the left to defend itself against both the Greens and Die Linke.两个主流政党内部都在如何推进上存在分歧：对基民盟而言，是靠近德国选择党而不只是复制其部分政策；对社会民主党而言，是进一步左转以同时抵御绿党和左翼党。A Splintered Europe分裂的欧洲With these four important elections and the pull of the far right in each of them “we’re going to have a major transformation,” with fragmented governments, said Ivan Krastev, chairman of the Center for Liberal Strategies in Bulgaria and a fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna.保加利亚自由主义战略中心主席、维也纳人文科学研究所研究员伊万·克拉斯特夫表示，随着这四场重要选举以及极右翼在其中表现出的号召力，“我们将迎来一场重大转型，”政府将趋于碎片化。Right-wing coalitions will likely contain small far-right parties “which will keep the mainstream far-right parties hostage and may prevent them from moving to the center.”右翼联盟很可能包含小型极右政党，“这将使主流极右政党成为人质，并可能阻止它们向中间移动。”If they do well, “then very quickly you’re trying to normalize them, because otherwise the European Union cannot function, and this is not making people feel more secure,” he said.他说，如果它们表现良好，“那么你很快就会试图将它们正常化，因为否则欧盟无法运转，而这并不会让人们感到更安全。”The French presidential election next spring will be key. A victory by Ms. Le Pen could have major implications for Brussels, for the euro, for NATO and for European support for Ukraine.明年春天的法国总统选举将是关键。勒庞的胜利可能对布鲁塞尔、欧元、北约以及欧洲对乌克兰的支持产生重大影响。极右翼国民联盟领导人玛丽娜·勒庞，她在法国总统民调中领先，极左翼不屈法国党领导人让-吕克·梅朗雄位居第二。Mr. Acemoglu argues for “a big-tent populism,” that channels the anger of voters in the name of inclusivity.阿杰姆奥卢主张“一个大帐篷式的民粹主义”，以包容性的名义引导选民的愤怒。“The centerpiece has to be creating jobs and wage growth and career paths for people without college degrees and diverse skills,” he said. “There must be an agenda for shared prosperity, which is why artificial intelligence and how it is used is critical.”“核心必须是为没有大学学位和多元技能的人创造就业、工资增长和职业路径，”他说。“必须有一个共享繁荣的议程，这就是为什么人工智能及其使用方式至关重要。”Steven Erlanger是时报欧洲首席外交记者，常驻柏林。他曾在120多个国家进行报道，包括泰国、法国、以色列、德国和前苏联等。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。