GBPAUD: Broke the October Ceiling. Is the Retest the Buy?Dow Jones U.S. Support Services IndexDJ_DLY:DJUSISAlgoVaultsGBPAUD has finally broken out of its October box. For three weeks it was stuck under 1.9050-1.9110. Last Thursday it ripped straight through to 1.9230. Now it's pulling back. The question is simple: is the old ceiling going to act as the new floor? As always, I start top-down: monthly and weekly for the bigger picture, daily and 4H for the zone, then the 1H for the entry. Monthly: The big trend is still down. Price fell from above 2.16 in April 2025 to 1.8550 in May this year. Since then it has spent five months basing between 1.8550 and 1.9360. Selling has slowed right down. Weekly: The weekly MACD crossed bullish at the end of September. Last week closed at 1.9183, the strongest weekly close since July. Price is now back above the weekly 20 MA around 1.9050. Daily: The 1.9000-1.9110 area capped price from 30 September to 14 October. Thursday's candle went from 1.8896 to 1.9230 in one day. That's a proper breakout, not a drift. Monday and Tuesday pulled back to 1.9024-1.9044 and buyers stepped in both times. That pullback lands right in the old ceiling. The 50% retrace of the breakout leg sits at 1.9060, the 61.8% at 1.9020, and the daily 20 MA is just under 1.9000. Old resistance, a Fib retrace and the 1.90 handle, all inside one 30 pip area. 4H: The 4H has cooled off. RSI has dropped back under 50 and price is sitting on the 50 MA around 1.9045. That's a healthy pullback in a new uptrend, not a breakdown. The backdrop helps too. UK jobs data was solid on Tuesday and a Bank of England hike in November is almost fully priced. UK CPI is out today at 13:00 Bangkok (06:00 UTC), so expect some noise around the number. 1H: My buy zone is 1.9020-1.9050. Trigger is a clean 1H rejection inside it. A long lower wick or a bullish engulfing candle. No rejection, no trade. What I'm Watching Next Hold 1.9020-1.9050 and 1.9140, Tuesday's high, is first. 1.9140 breaks and 1.9225, last week's high, is next. 1.9225 breaks and 1.9350, the July highs, is on the cards. How I'm Looking To Trade It Aggressive: buy a 1H rejection inside 1.9020-1.9050, entry around 1.9035. Stop below 1.8975. Take something off the table at 1.9225 and trail the rest towards 1.9350. Conservative: wait for the fake-out. If price spikes under 1.9020 on the CPI number and the 4H closes back above it, buy there with the stop below the spike low. Same targets. From 1.9035 that's about 60 pips of risk for 190 pips to the first target and 315 to the second. Roughly 1:3 and 1:5. What changes my mind: A daily close below 1.8990. That puts price back inside the old box and says the breakout has failed. If that happens the long is off the table and I'd rather wait than force it. Does this mean I'm calling the end of the GBPAUD downtrend? Not yet. The monthly is still bearish. This is a retest to buy, not a long-term trend call. There is the possibility that I am wrong :) What are you seeing on GBPAUD: old ceiling turning into new floor, or a failed breakout back into the box? Not financial advice, just how I'm looking at it.