SERGE SCHMEMANN2026年10月22日This essay concludes The New World Disorder, a series exploring the disintegration of the postwar international system and how countries are adjusting as America steps aside. Read more in the series below.本文是《新世界失序》系列的收尾篇。该系列探讨战后国际体系如何瓦解，以及在美国抽身而退之际各国如何调整。By now it is clear to most of America and much of the world that America and what it stands for have changed. The dominant face of that change is President Trump and his determined and deliberate efforts to accumulate greater powers than the Constitution apportioned to the president, to create a cult of personality based on grievance and vengeance and to challenge every aspect of the postwar global order, demeaning allies and courting autocrats.如今，美国乃至世界的大部分人都已清楚：美国及其所代表的一切已经改变。这一变化最突出的面孔是特朗普总统。他坚决而精心地扩充权力，使之超出宪法赋予总统的范围；他营造了基于怨恨与复仇的个人崇拜；他挑战战后全球秩序的每一个方面，贬低盟友、讨好威权者。Is that the future of America in the world? An increasingly autocratic, rude and unpredictable superpower guided by populism, rancor and whim? Or will Americans, once Mr. Trump is gone, try to restore the United States as the world’s repository of democratic values and human rights?这就是美国在世界的未来吗？一个由民粹主义、怨恨和任性驱动的日益威权、粗鲁、不可预测的超级大国？还是说，特朗普离去之后，美国人会努力把美国重新变成为世界维护民主价值观与人权的地方？It is hard to imagine that even a MAGA-minded successor to Mr. Trump (say, Marco Rubio or JD Vance) would be as petulant, inconsistent and vindictive as this president has been. Yet too much has already shifted in the world — beyond anything Mr. Trump has done — to believe that the liberal, rules-based and values-driven order shaped by America and its allies after World War II can ever fully return to what it was.很难想象，即便是特朗普的MAGA继任者（比如马尔科·鲁比奥或JD·万斯），会像这位总统一样任性、反复无常和睚眦必报。然而，世界已经发生太多变化——超出了特朗普所做的一切——使人无法相信由美国及其盟友在二战后塑造的自由主义、基于规则、以价值观驱动的秩序能够完全恢复原状。New realities have come to the fore since the Berlin Wall came down almost four decades ago: the emergence of China as a greater economic and military rival to the United States than the Soviet Union ever was; the re-emergence of Russia as a menacing police state and its starting of a European war; the global retreat of liberal democracy, led by the premier democracy, the United States; fast-evolving technology undertaking tasks once reserved for the human brain. Globalization, once promising a borderless world and worldwide prosperity, has revealed its dark side: mass migration, inequality, cybercrime, polarization.柏林墙倒塌近四十年来，新的现实已经浮现：中国崛起为美国的经济和军事对手，其程度超过当年的苏联；俄罗斯重新成为一个具有威胁性的警察国家，并发动了一场欧洲战争；自由民主在全球退却，而带头退却的正是头号民主国家美国；快速演进的技术开始承担曾经专属于人类大脑的任务。全球化曾许诺一个无边界的世界和全球繁荣，如今却暴露出阴暗面：大规模移民、不平等、网络犯罪、两极分化。There is no reboot mechanism in history; there is no way back to the conveniently binary world of the last century any more than Mr. Trump can realize the illusions of Make America Great Again. The world is moving on.历史没有重启机制；无法回到上个世纪那种省心的二元世界，正如特朗普无法实现“让美国再次伟大”的种种幻想。世界在继续前行。What lies ahead? There is no way to know. But we must consider possible scenarios, if only to prepare as best we can. The exercise is especially critical for Americans, because any coherent action against global disarray will have to begin with the return of American democracy, as Charles A. Kupchan argues in his book “Bringing Order to Anarchy: Governing the World to Come.” Though Mark Carney, Canada’s prime minister, might have articulated a widespread longing at Davos in January when he urged middle powers to join forces and “create a third path,” the power, wealth and traditions of a renewed United States would be critical for any meaningful reversal of illiberal and autocratic trends.前方是什么？无人知晓。但我们必须考虑可能的情景，至少是为了尽可能做好准备。这一推演对美国人尤其关键，因为正如查尔斯·A·库普钱在《在无政府状态中建立秩序：治理未来世界》(Bringing Order to Anarchy: Governing the World to Come)一书中所主张的那样，任何应对全球失序的一致行动都必须从美国民主的回归开始。加拿大总理马克·卡尼今年1月在达沃斯或许已经表达了一种广泛的渴望：他敦促中等强国联合起来，“开辟第三条道路。”但一个复兴的美国的实力、财富与传统对于任何有意义地扭转反自由和威权趋势的努力来说，仍然至关重要。The scenarios below, looking a dozen years or so into the future, are drawn from conversations with and the writings of people who professionally gaze into the crystal balls of politics and world affairs, as well as with people who are concerned with what we leave behind. They are meant not to be scientific or comprehensive but to reflect on this critical moment, because, as the great American sage Yogi Berra once said, “If you don’t know where you are going, you might wind up someplace else.”以下是展望未来十几年的可能情形，依据的是与那些以研判政治和世界事务为职业的人的对话和他们的著述，以及与那些关心我们留下什么遗产的人的交流。这样的展望无意保持科学或全面，而是意在反思这一关键时刻，因为正如美国的伟大智者尤吉·贝拉曾说过的：“如果你不知道要去哪里，你可能会最终到别的地方。”America Makes a Comeback美国回归This is our most hopeful scenario. A leader committed to the primacy of law, honest governance and liberal democracy across the globe is back in the White House, and the United States has begun to clamber back to its place as the “shining city on a hill.”这是我们最有希望的情景。一位致力于法律至上、诚实治理和全球自由民主的领导人回到白宫，美国开始努力恢复“光辉的山巅之城”的地位。Europeans have taken on greater responsibility for their defense and are warily coming to accept the United States as a friend and ally again. Vladimir Putin has been ousted and the conflict with Ukraine frozen, allowing Ukraine to make a rapid economic recovery and eventually have its territory returned. China has surpassed the United States economically but not militarily, and the two superpowers work to avoid conflict and find a modus vivendi.欧洲人对自己的防务承担了更大责任，并正警惕地逐渐重新接受美国作为朋友和盟友。弗拉基米尔·普京已被赶下台，与乌克兰的冲突被冻结，使乌克兰得以迅速实现经济复苏并最终收回领土。中国在经济上超越美国，但在军事上没有，两个超级大国努力避免冲突并找到一种共处方式。A reinvigorated and re-empowered United Nations, no longer undermined by Washington, is mobilizing once again to combat climate change and public health challenges and find ways to regulate artificial intelligence. The consensus formed among rich nations after World War II — that aid to poor countries builds stability, fosters growth and reduces suffering — is restored as America retreats from Mr. Trump’s “America first” use of foreign aid purely as a transactional lever.一个重新焕发活力、重新获得授权的联合国不再被华盛顿削弱，再次动员起来应对气候变化和公共卫生挑战，并设法监管人工智能。二战后富裕国家之间形成的共识——援助穷国能够建设稳定、促进增长和减少苦难——得以恢复，而美国则摒弃了特朗普将对外援助纯粹用作交易杠杆的“美国优先”做法。Before exiting, Mr. Trump called off the war in Iran, declaring victory even though Tehran retains its mullahs and its nuclear fuel. But at least the Middle East is calm, and with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel voted out of power, the new administration in Washington gets to work on beginning another peace process between Israelis and Palestinians.在离任前，特朗普叫停了伊朗战争，宣布胜利，尽管德黑兰的毛拉们和核燃料安然无恙。但至少中东平静了，随着以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡被选下台，华盛顿的新政府开始着手启动以色列人与巴勒斯坦人之间的又一轮和平进程。Its own house in order and its democratic allies behind it, the United States is able to begin guiding the world to a new order. The verities long taken for granted about the benefits of globalization, free trade, automation, digital technology and liberal democracy have given way to a far more fragmented world, with multiple centers of power competing over influence and status, but at the same time, as Mr. Kupchan writes, “more tethered together and interdependent than it was during the 20th century.” A new system of global governance begins to take shape, perhaps along the lines of what Mr. Kupchan envisions: a global concert of major nations to preserve peace and cooperation while acknowledging the ideological and cultural diversity of a complex world.自己的家事理顺了，民主盟友在身后，美国得以开始引导世界走向一个新秩序。长期以来被视为理所当然的关于全球化、自由贸易、自动化、数字技术和自由民主之益处的真理已经让位于一个远为碎片化的世界，多个权力中心争夺影响力和地位，但同时又——如库普钱所写——“比20世纪时更加相互拴系和相互依存。”一个新的全球治理体系开始成形，或许沿着库普钱设想的路线：一个由主要国家组成的全球协调机制，以维护和平与合作，同时承认一个复杂世界的意识形态和文化多样性。The recovery of America is central to this future. However great the degradation of American ideals in the MAGA era, the United States remains unique in its power, resources and embedded values and in its ability to overcome serious failings. It took fourscore and seven years and a cruel civil war before the proposition that all men are created equal was expanded to include Black people and an additional century to translate that into law. Women have had the vote for only a bit more than 100 years, and the struggle for equality is far from finished. Yet to borrow further from Abraham Lincoln, America has succeeded in “a new birth of freedom” again and again, and it can do it once more.美国的复苏对于这一未来至关重要。无论美国理想在MAGA时代经历了多大退化，美国在其力量、资源和内嵌价值观方面，以及在其克服严重缺陷的能力方面，仍然是独特的。“人人生而平等”的设定用了87年的时间和一场残酷的内战才将黑人包括在内，又花了一个世纪才将其转化为法律。女性获得投票权仅有一百多年，争取平等的斗争远未结束。然而，进一步借用亚伯拉罕·林肯的话，美国一次又一次地成功实现了“自由的新生”，它能再一次做到。We Muddle Along我们得过且过In this version of our collective future, the world carries on much as it is. A new U.S. administration ends Mr. Trump’s tariffs and tries to restore relations with allies and avoid conflicts, but a deep polarization continues to grip American politics, feeding constant tensions among the branches of government and destabilizing the executive.在我们的共同未来的这个版本中，世界大体照旧延续。美国新一届政府结束了特朗普的关税，试图恢复与盟友的关系并避免冲突，但深度的极化继续攫住美国政治，助长政府各部门之间的持续紧张，并使行政分支不稳定。America’s wealth and military power command fear and respect, but after all the back and forth of the Trump and Biden administrations, most of the world — including Europe and Canada — can no longer view the United States as either the democratic standard or a moral leader. American-led alliances and economic institutions weaken. Governments around the globe form shifting economic groupings and increasingly turn to China for trade and security.美国的财富和军事力量赢得恐惧和尊重，但在特朗普和拜登两届政府的反复之后，世界大部分地区——包括欧洲和加拿大——不能再将美国视为民主标准或道德领袖。美国领导的联盟和经济体制被削弱。世界各国政府形成不断变化的经济组合，并越来越多地转向中国寻求贸易和安全。As China surpasses the United States economically and draws closer militarily, Beijing forges ever closer economic ties to Europe and emerging economies and escalates pressure on Taiwan, though it avoids confrontations that could provoke American action. Several of the countries once relegated to the developing world — like India, Mexico, Brazil and Indonesia — approach first rank but without a shared vision for how the world should work together.随着中国在经济上超越美国并在军事上拉近距离，北京与欧洲和新兴经济体建立越来越紧密的经济联系，并升级对台湾的压力，尽管它避免了可能招致美国行动的对抗。几个曾被归入发展中国家的国家——如印度、墨西哥、巴西和印度尼西亚——接近第一梯队，但没有关于世界应如何合作的共同愿景。In the Middle East, Mr. Trump finally found an exit ramp in Iran before leaving office, restoring passage through the Strait of Hormuz, but the mullahs, with much of their enriched uranium, remain in power in Iran. Mr. Netanyahu is gone, but Gaza remains devastated, and new Israeli settlements in the West Bank continue to fan Palestinian resentment. Mr. Putin has been overthrown by a junta of siloviki — the military and security barons through whom he ruled — but the war with Ukraine remains a smoldering stalemate. Europe accepts greater responsibility for its own defense but struggles to find a unified approach to China, Russia or the problems of the world.在中东，特朗普在离任前终于在伊朗问题上找到了出口，恢复了霍尔木兹海峡的通行，但毛拉们带着大部分浓缩铀继续在伊朗掌权。内塔尼亚胡走了，但加沙仍然满目疮痍，约旦河西岸的新以色列定居点继续煽动巴勒斯坦人的怨恨。普京被一个由西罗维基——他借以统治的军事和安全寡头——组成的军政府推翻，但与乌克兰的战争仍是一场闷烧的僵局。欧洲对自己的防务承担更大责任，但难以就中国、俄罗斯或世界问题找到统一方针。Global tasks like battling climate change continue in fits and starts, without major commitments or progress. The United Nations and its major agencies, like the World Health Organization and UNICEF, remain suspect to much of America and thereby limited in reach and financing. The world is largely at peace, but this can change at any moment as China rapidly gathers force.诸如抗击气候变化之类的全球任务断断续续地进行，没有重大承诺或进展。联合国及其主要机构，如世界卫生组织和联合国儿童基金会，仍被美国大部分地区所怀疑，因而在覆盖范围和资金上受到限制。世界大体和平，但随着中国迅速积聚力量，这随时可能改变。Unchecked Decline失控的衰落Here, polarization and recriminations paralyze the United States. NATO and other American-led alliances lose meaning in a maelstrom of tariff wars and mutual rancor. Major international organizations — the United Nations, the World Trade Organization, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund — founder as countries north and south seek security and trade in shifting alliances and trading blocs. Beijing succeeds in annexing Taiwan without international military resistance, but China’s growth stalls, leaving the world without a dominant center. Unregulated A.I. leads to a host of new crises — rogue incursions and raids, proliferation of misinformation, loss of countless jobs, dangerous advances in cyberwarfare.极化和相互指责使美国瘫痪。北约和其他美国领导的联盟在关税战和相互怨恨的漩涡中失去意义。主要国际组织——联合国、世界贸易组织、世界银行、国际货币基金组织——在南北国家于不断变化的联盟和贸易集团中寻求安全和贸易之际纷纷动摇。北京成功吞并台湾而没有遭遇国际军事抵抗，但中国的增长停滞，使世界没有一个主导中心。不受监管的人工智能导致一系列新危机——擅自入侵和突袭、虚假信息扩散、无数工作岗位流失、网络战在危险地推进。An America distrusted by other nations and trapped in debilitating internal struggles leads to a deeply fragmented and unstable world, increasingly vulnerable to Chinese demands. Xenophobia and ancient grievances become the stuff of local politics and international relations, leading to flare-ups in the Caucasus, the Balkans, the Horn of Africa and other places where demagogues fan animosities.一个不被其他国家信任、陷于衰弱内斗的美国导致一个深度碎片化和不稳定的世界，越来越屈从于中国的要求。排外情绪和宿仇成为地方政治和国际关系的素材，导致高加索、巴尔干、非洲之角以及其他煽动者煽动敌意的地方爆发冲突。Unchecked global warming creates chaos the world over, from seawater sloshing through the Bowery to flooding and drought in Africa and Asia, setting off vast new migrations and conflicts. A total breakdown of alliances and international organizations leaves the world vulnerable to the full range of historical scourges, from famine to war.不受制约的全球变暖在全世界制造混乱，从海水漫过鲍厄里到非洲和亚洲的洪水和干旱，引发大规模的新移民和冲突。联盟和国际组织的全面崩溃使世界容易遭受从饥荒到战争的全方位历史性灾祸。Russia, its oil and gas fields battered by Ukrainian drones, threatens a tactical nuclear strike against Ukraine. The United States and Iran remain at a yearslong stalemate, rendering passage through the Strait of Hormuz sporadic and dangerous, pushing the price of oil ever higher and adding, most grievously, to the woes of developing countries and the poor with rising energy, transportation and food costs. Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern powers lose faith in America. Terrorist attacks multiply in Israel and the occupied territories, the threat of war hanging over the region.油气田遭到乌克兰无人机打击的俄罗斯威胁对乌克兰进行战术核打击。美国和伊朗仍处于长达数年的僵局，使霍尔木兹海峡的通航时断时续且危险，推高石油价格，并且最令人痛心地，以不断上涨的能源、运输和食品成本加剧发展中国家和穷人的苦难。沙特阿拉伯和其他中东大国对美国失去信心。恐怖袭击在以色列和被占领土上成倍增加，战争的威胁笼罩着该地区。Even in this scenario, a major clash of great powers — the United States, China, Russia or even Europe — remains unlikely, given that such conflicts tend to be over historical wrongs, artificial crises or regional borders, but the threat of regional conflicts going out of control is ever present. The strongmen in power are not above using conflict to extend control over their subjects.即使在这一情景中，大国——美国、中国、俄罗斯甚至欧洲——之间的重大冲突仍然不太可能，因为此类冲突往往源于历史仇怨、人为危机或地区边界，但地区冲突失控的威胁始终存在。当权的强人们乐于利用冲突来扩大对其臣民的控制。The world is a dark place, and America is no longer there to offer light.世界是一个黑暗的地方，那个能带来光明的美国已经不再。There are, of course, innumerable other ways things could play out in coming years and decades. As our great American sage, again, reputedly said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”当然，在未来几年和几十年里，事情还有无数其他的演变方式。再次引用我们伟大的美国智者据称说过的：“做预测很难，尤其是关于未来的预测。”The dangers are huge, but the future need not be dystopian. However the old liberal order is viewed, its achievements cannot be denied — or quickly undone. Even as autocracies spread, the yearning for freedom remains strong. Ukrainians have demonstrated an extraordinary determination to stay free; American judges still often stand up to Mr. Trump’s efforts to subvert the law; journalists the world over risk freedom and even death to report the truth; countries still rush to help others when catastrophe strikes, as they did when floods ravaged Nepal and Tibet in August.危险是巨大的，但未来不必是反乌托邦的。无论人们如何看待旧的自由秩序，它的成就无法被否认——也无法被迅速抹去。即使专制政体蔓延，对自由的渴望仍然强烈。乌克兰人展现了坚守自由的非凡决心；美国的法官们仍然经常挺身对抗特朗普颠覆法律的企图；全世界的记者冒着失去自由甚至死亡的风险报道真相；当灾难来袭时，各国仍然会紧急行动起来帮助他人，正如他们在8月份尼泊尔和西藏遭受洪水肆虐时所做的那样。Elections can reverse an extremist drift, as they did in Poland and Hungary, but they can also raise warning signals, as with the gains of the Alternative for Germany in Germany’s recent regional elections. The midterm contests in the United States next month will be scrutinized the world over, the presidential race in 2028 even more.正如在波兰和匈牙利看到的，选举可以逆转极端主义倾向，但它们也会敲响警钟，正如德国选择党在德国最近地区选举中的斩获所显示的那样。下个月美国的中期选举将受到全世界的密切关注，2028年的总统竞选更是如此。In the words of the hymn, the fate of humanity still turns on the decisions that people and nations take “in the strife of truth with falsehood.” They do not always make the wrong choice. The key is not to wait too long.用赞美诗的话说，人类的命运仍然取决于人民和国家在“真假之战”中选择站在哪一方。他们并不总是做出错误的选择。关键在于不要等待太久。Serge Schmemann于1980年加入《纽约时报》，曾任莫斯科、波恩、耶路撒冷和联合国分社社长。2003年至2013年间，他曾在巴黎任《国际先驱论坛报》社论版主编。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。