Gold Looks Like Bitcoin in 2018 GoldOANDA:XAUUSDEXCAVOGold is at $4,124. On the daily chart it has spent five months inside a descending triangle: lower highs from the 5,600 top, pressed against a flat floor at 3,930 to 4,000. I have traded this shape many times on different instruments. It breaks down far more often than it breaks up, and it usually takes liquidity off the top first. My read: one more bounce into the trendline, then the floor goes, and the next stop is the 3,090 to 3,330 zone. Roughly a quarter below the current price. Here is the reasoning, the receipts and the levels. What the chart shows The top is 5,600. From there the highs step down: 4,750 in September, lower again now, all under one yellow trendline that currently runs near 4,450. The floor has held three times since the summer, and under it sits the weekly and monthly swing-low zone at 3,800 to 3,930, which is where the stops of every dip buyer of the last five months are parked. Above the price there are three untouched supply zones: 4,700 to 4,800, 4,900, and the 5,600 top itself. Below, after the floor, the next clean support is the spring 2025 consolidation at 3,090 to 3,330, three swing-low zones stacked on top of each other. That yellow box on the right is the target. Why I trust this pattern A descending triangle with a horizontal floor is the most honest pattern in the market. Everyone can see the floor, so everyone puts their buy orders just above it and their stops just below it. The market resolves that by breaking the floor and running the stops. Before it does, it often pops above the trendline for a day or two to clear the shorts. Then it goes. I published this exact logic twice before, with dates. October 17, 2022, Bitcoin: "a short squeeze in the next two weeks, and after, a dive below 18 is possible. 13-14k strong support zone." Three weeks later the 19k floor broke and Bitcoin went to 15.5k. www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDTPERP/LQMzJAWD-Bitcoin-2018-and-2022/ September 6, 2024, Brent: "a classic triangle with horizontal support, most of the participants realize that we will break down, but not everyone believes that we will take liquidity off the top before going down." Oil swept the trendline in January, then broke the 72 floor and fell to 60. www.tradingview.com/chart/UKOIL/EgGcIjad-Crude-OIL-UKOIL-Classic-pattern/ The Bitcoin chart from 2018 sits next to the 2022 one in that first post. Same triangle, same floor at 6k, same break, same fifty percent drop after it. Gold today is the fourth chart in that series. The path First the bounce. From the floor the price has room up to the trendline, roughly 4,400 to 4,500. That is where the hammer sits on my chart: a sweep of the recent highs that pulls in the breakout buyers and clears the early shorts. I expect this leg in November and December. Then the break. A daily close under 3,930 opens the 3,800 zone, and once the monthly swing low under it is swept, there is nothing on the chart until 3,330. The red path on the chart lands in the 3,090 to 3,330 box in the first quarter of 2027. From 5,600 that is a 42 to 45 percent correction, almost exactly what Bitcoin did after its 2018 triangle. Why now In April 2025, with gold at 3,250, I wrote that 4,200 would be the signal that the fiat era is capitulating. www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/D0zKr1kC-Gold-2025-The-Asset-of-Last-Trust-Deep-Research-by-EXCAVO/ We got 5,600. The thesis worked, and then the price ran far ahead of it: from 2,665 in November 2024 to 5,600, more than double in fifteen months. That made gold the most crowded trade in the world. A crowded trade rarely corrects sideways. It corrects through the floor, once the last buyers are in. You can see the unwind starting already: the assets that ran the hardest this year are the ones being sold first, and gold has been weak while the rest of the market bounced. The triangle is simply what that distribution looks like on a chart. Invalidation A weekly close above the trendline and above the September high at 4,750 kills the triangle. In that case the 4,900 zone and the 5,600 top become the targets, and I stand aside. Until then every bounce is a bounce inside a downtrend. What I do I booked the short from the top earlier this year. I am not chasing the breakdown from here. The plan is to sell the bounce into 4,400 to 4,500 with the stop above 4,750, and to hold that position through the floor. The 3,090 to 3,330 box is where my long-term gold buying starts, in tranches. Physical silver stays in the long-term book, and I am not adding to it here. The long-term view on gold has not changed. My chart from 2017 still points to 10,000 by 2030. Corrections of 40 percent inside that path are normal, and they are where the position is built. Bottom line Descending triangle, flat floor at 3,930 to 4,000, three tests. Bounce into 4,400 to 4,500 first, then the break, then 3,090 to 3,330 by early 2027. Weekly close above 4,750 and I am wrong. Bitcoin 2018, Bitcoin 2022, Brent 2024, gold 2026. Best Regards, EXCAVO