Is the U.S. About to Issue Gold-backed Bonds To Save the Treasury Market?

Wait 5 sec.

Something unusual is happening at the intersection of the gold market and the U.S. Treasury market.For decades, proposals to restore a monetary role for gold have largely come from outside the policy establishment. Gold advocates talked about sound money; Washington talked about Treasury liquidity, interest rates and dollar reserves. The two conversations rarely intersected.That may be changing. Former Federal Reserve nominee Judy Shelton has proposed what she calls a Treasury Trust Bond: a 50-year U.S. Treasury security that she calls a Treasury Trust Bond. It would give its holder, at maturity, the right to receive either the bond’s dollar face value or a predetermined quantity of gold (link). With her very recent appointment as advisor to Scott Bessent and the U.S. Treasury, could now be the time for a gold-backed bond?The proposal is modest compared with restoring a classical gold standard. Dollars would not become generally redeemable in gold. Americans could not present Federal Reserve notes at a bank and demand bullion. Indeed, the Treasury would not face gold redemption on Shelton’s proposed bonds for fifty years.There is an obvious objection to this proposal, particularly for readers coming from the Austrian or libertarian tradition. Why should anyone interested in sound money care about preserving the Treasury market?The federal government’s ability to borrow trillions of dollars at relatively low interest rates is not necessarily a virtue. Indeed, one can reasonably argue that the extraordinary depth and liquidity of the Treasury market—combined with the Federal Reserve’s ability to create money and act as buyer of last resort—has enabled a level of federal spending, indebtedness and intervention that could never have been sustained under genuinely hard money.The choice need not be between perpetuating the present fiat system indefinitely and allowing it to collapse so that sound money can emerge from the wreckage. There may be a third possibility: use the coming monetary repricing to impose a harder constraint on the existing system while allowing its enormous stock of financial claims to migrate forward under that constraint.Gold convertibility should not be understood merely as a subsidy to federal borrowing. Properly constructed, it imposes something the existing Treasury market conspicuously lacks: an external monetary discipline. That would be a step back towards sound money.Yet the concept of a gold-backed bond is profound. Implicitly, it would enforce some measure of monetary discipline. And for the first time in generations, a U.S. Treasury obligation would contain an explicit promise denominated in gold.Macro strategist Luke Gromen has been discussing how this may be the time for Judy Shelton’s gold bonds (link, link, link). In fact, it may be the only thing that can save the Treasury market specifically, while looking to balance trade with China. His concern is not primarily sound money. It is the sustainability of the Treasury market itself.He argues that at today’s debt levels, substantially higher rates themselves become destabilizing. Rising interest expense increases deficits, which requires more Treasury issuance, which can require still higher yields to attract buyers.The solution cannot indefinitely be “pay bondholders more interest.” He states that either rising interest rates or cutting rates from here will have disastrous gamma effects on the markets and currency. Gromen believes that gold could absorb some of the risk that otherwise has to be compensated through Treasury yields. He is pointing specifically to Shelton’s gold-bond concept and has speculated about gold prices far above today’s levels—potentially around $20,000 to $22,000 per ounce—as part of a broader monetary restructuring. Several monetary analysts have speculated that a gold revaluation has to be in the works, but only as a currency peg, not a backstop to save Treasury yields. (link, link, link) The $20,000 number sounds sensational until one considers the mechanics.The United States officially owns approximately 261.5 million ounces of gold. At $3,000 per ounce, that gold is worth less than $800 billion. At $10,000 it is worth approximately $2.6 trillion. At $22,000, America’s gold reserve becomes an asset worth roughly $5.75 trillion.Nothing physical has changed. Fort Knox contains exactly the same gold. What has changed is the monetary scale of the asset. The purpose of revaluing gold would not be to “pay off the national debt.” Even dramatically higher gold prices could not accomplish that. The more interesting possibility is to use America’s gold reserve to recapitalize confidence in the securities through which that debt is financed.This is where Shelton’s and Gromen’s ideas begin to converge.Shelton supplies the instrument: a Treasury security containing a contractual gold claim.Gromen supplies the macroeconomic rationale: if Treasury yields cannot rise indefinitely without worsening America’s fiscal position, gold can potentially provide investors with protection against monetary depreciation without requiring the government to provide all of that compensation through interest.There is, however, a missing piece between those two ideas.A gold option exercisable fifty years from now does not by itself create a functioning monetary anchor. Nor does revaluing the Treasury’s gold stock, by itself, create greater demand for Treasury securities. One proposal creates the instrument; the other explains why gold may need to be repriced dramatically higher.The proposal that follows attempts to merge the two.Instead of viewing gold revaluation and gold-linked Treasury bonds as separate policies, consider them components of a single monetary architecture.Treasury could create a new class of gold-linked securities convertible according to a defined gold value. Rather than attempting to make ordinary dollars redeemable in gold, convertibility would attach specifically to these Treasury instruments. Gold would provide the monetary anchor; Treasury securities would retain the liquidity, yield, collateral utility and enormous market infrastructure that have made them the foundation of the international financial system.This distinction also changes the geopolitical implications.China and the BRICS nations have made no secret of their desire to reduce dependence on the dollar. Central banks have accumulated gold at extraordinary rates, while proposals for trade settlement systems involving gold or other commodities have become increasingly serious.Washington could attempt to resist that trend. Or it could incorporate gold into the dollar-based financial architecture.The United States possesses something its geopolitical competitors cannot easily reproduce: the deepest and most liquid sovereign securities market in the world. China may accumulate enormous quantities of gold. BRICS may devise new settlement mechanisms. But neither development automatically creates a replacement for the Treasury market’s role as the world’s principal reserve, collateral and liquidity asset.Gold-linked Treasuries could bridge those two monetary worlds.Gold could regain an explicit role as international monetary collateral without requiring the United States to abandon the dollar. Foreign central banks concerned about long-term dollar depreciation could hold a U.S. security carrying a credible gold claim. Treasury could potentially reduce the yield premium required to compensate investors for monetary risk. And the Treasury market could remain central to global finance even as gold assumes a larger role in the international monetary system.The objective, therefore, is not a nostalgic return to the gold standard.It is almost the opposite.The United States would remonetize gold not to dismantle the dollar system, but to preserve its most important institution: the U.S. Treasury market. For investment purposes, I’m not saying this WILL happen, but it’s the only approach that I can see to stabilize our debt markets and preserve America’s role as an issuer of globally accepted reserve assets.Shelton has proposed the instrument. Gromen has increasingly described the monetary and fiscal pressures that might make such an instrument necessary. What follows is an attempt to connect those ideas into a workable system—and to ask a larger question:Could gold, rather than being the asset that ultimately replaces the Treasury standard, become the asset that saves it?Link to full policy proposal for a Gold-linked Treasury InstrumentThe post Is the U.S. About to Issue Gold-backed Bonds To Save the Treasury Market? appeared first on LewRockwell.