XAUUSD Oct 22: Sell 4138–4143 first, buy dips at 4105–4112GoldOANDA:XAUUSDToan_AlphaDAILY PLAN | XAUUSD Oct 21 plan review: Scenario 1 SELL 4140 triggered at 7:30 AM ET, hit TP1 4126 and TP2 4112; the 4105 low stopped about 5 points short of TP3 4100. Thursday Oct 22, 2026 – H1 chart – Price at plan time (7:15 PM ET, Oct 21): 4128 1. Market structure - D1: Gold is still ranging inside the broad 4066–4228 box since late September, and the highs inside the range keep getting lower: 4227 → 4217 → 4199 → 4190 → 4155 → 4142. The Oct 21 daily candle swept down to 4105 and closed at 4141 with a long lower wick, showing buyers defending 4105–4112, but price has still not broken the lower-high sequence. - H4: The range is compressing between 4105 and 4142: H4 highs keep falling 4190 → 4155 → 4142 while lows 4111 → 4106 → 4105 are almost flat. This is a tug-of-war inside a short-term downtrend. - H1/M15: Price has been rejected several times at 4141–4142 (from 7:30 AM to 4:45 PM ET on Oct 21). The overnight sweep to 4105 was bought straight back, then price was sold again from 4142 and is now easing back to 4125–4128. 2. Key price zones - Resistance 4150–4156: top of the Oct 20 evening spike (4155), clear rejection wick on H1/H4. - Resistance 4138–4143: the double/triple top on H1 on Oct 21 (4141–4142), the nearest SELL zone. - Support 4121–4125: the Oct 21 H1 lows (4121–4124) and the current early-Asia low (4125). - Support 4105–4112: the Oct 21 lows (4105–4106) and the Oct 20 low (4111), the in-range BUY zone. - Strong support 4066–4085: the D1 range floor (Oct 7 and Oct 14). 3. Main scenarios Scenario 1 – SELL at resistance 4138–4143 (preferred, with the lower-high sequence) - Entry zone: 4138–4143, Entry 4140 - Trigger: price pulls back into 4138–4143 and prints a rejection candle on H1/M15 (long upper wick, bearish engulfing) - SL: 4148 - TP1: 4126 | TP2: 4113 | TP3: 4106 - R:R: 1:1.8 / 1:3.4 / 1:4.3 Scenario 2 – BUY at support 4105–4112 (range bounce) - Entry zone: 4105–4112, Entry 4109 - Trigger: price reaches 4105–4112 with a false break or a bullish pin bar/engulfing on H1/M15, and no H1 close below 4105 - SL: 4100 - TP1: 4124 | TP2: 4138 | TP3: 4150 - R:R: 1:1.7 / 1:3.2 / 1:4.6 4. Alternative scenarios - If H1 closes above 4143 and price holds on a retest of 4138–4143: drop the 4140 SELL; a breakout BUY is possible, targets 4150 then 4156, SL below 4133. - If H1 closes below 4105 and a pullback into 4105–4110 is rejected: a breakout SELL is possible, targets 4090 then 4085, SL above 4114. 5. Invalidation - Scenario 1 is invalid on an H1 close above 4148, or if price hits 4113 before pulling back to 4138–4143. - Scenario 2 is invalid on an H1 close below 4100 (opening the way to 4066–4085), or if price reaches 4138 before reaching the entry zone. - No new entries within 15 minutes of high-impact news. 6. Conclusion Gold is coiling inside a tight 4105–4142 H4 range and the highs are still falling, so SELL on a pullback into 4138–4143 with a rejection candle is preferred. The long lower wick on D1 shows buyers still defending 4105–4112, so a BUY there is the second scenario when holding signals are clear. A decisive break of either edge will set the next direction. News to watch (ET): 8:30 AM US initial jobless claims, 10:00 AM CB Leading Index. No new entries from 8:15 to 8:45 AM ET. Check spread before entering. Note: This is personal analysis for reference only, not investment advice. Gold trading carries high risk; manage your capital and take responsibility for your own decisions.