On Oct. 25, Brazilians will return to the polls for the second round of the presidential election. The results will matter not only for the future of country itself, but also for the region and the world. Alongside Canada and Mexico, Brazil, under the leadership of current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, is one of the few countries in the region that has stood up to Donald Trump’s meddling and interference attempts.The rise of the far rightUnder Lula, Brazil still serves as a bulwark against the imposition of right-wing populist agendas critics say run counter to the broader interests of local societies, but cater to the interests of certain domestic elites. It is within this context that we must consider the Brazilian election alongside other electoral processes in the democratic world.Many Trump-style leaders have recently come to power in the continent. The Economist compiled descriptive statistics to try to capture the trend. According to the publication, in 2023 there were two or three presidents aligned with Trump in the region. Today there are 11. If elected, Flávio Bolsonaro — son of jailed former president Jair Bolsonaro — would be the 12th. Should that happen, the alignment of South and Central America with the current U.S. administration would be further advanced.Peripheral realismOne theoretical school of thought in international relations that attempts to explain this phenomenon is “peripheral realism.” According to this theory, by being realistic in their assessment that they possess few resources and limited economic, military, institutional or diplomatic capacity, countries assume a subordinate position. In other words, they become merely a wagon on the U.S. locomotive.There are people advocating along these lines today in Colombia and Argentina. And the prevailing thinking within Flávio Bolsonaro’s inner circle also appears to align with peripheral realism. Publicly sympathetic to Donald Trump, the candidate himself has already stated at rallies that, if elected, he will join Trump’s regional security initiative, the Shield of the Americas, “to fight narco-terrorism.”Some articles and campaign materials from Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign already make this clear. If there is a changing of the guard — with the challenger defeating the incumbent in Brazil — the country is likely to join this group of nations aligned with the White House that includes Argentina and Colombia – respectively the second and third largest countries in South America, after Brazil by far.Peripheral realism is, therefore, the idea of accepting one’s peripheral status and acting in the most pragmatic way, normalizing submission to the interests of the most powerful country. In doing so, one relinquishes the concept of sovereign equality among peoples — a pillar of international law — in order to acknowledge the asymmetry between nations and, from there, attempt to extract some advantage. Brazil right-wing presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro (left) with President Donald Trump at the Oval Office in May 26, 2026: days after the meeting the U.S. government imposed a 25% extra tariff on imports from Brazil, a move largely attributed to an alleged requests by him, his brother Eduardo Bolsonaro (right) and far right blogger and influencer Paulo Figueiredo (center). Eduardo Bolsonaro/X The problem is that these advantages are, almost invariably, directed toward the ruling elite of the submissive country. Society, in general, ends up having to bear the cost of this foreign policy choice. And this is not a theory that is being made up now; it already has a history. In the 1990s, for example, the famous Argentine theorist, Carlos Escudé — a mentor to then Argentine President Carlos Menem — advocated for this school of thought.There are other examples. Costa Rica, for example, has no army having relinquished it and handed over the security function to the United States. It is a classic example of how a central tenet of sovereignty – having an armed force to protect the territory and the population – can be sacrificed under peripheral realism.Scenario projectionsIn the event of a victory for Flávio Bolsonaro on Oct. 25, I believe one of the first steps would be for Brazil to join Trump’s Shield of the Americas, an alliance formed under the pretext of fighting organized crime in the Americas. This could pave the way for more U.S. foreign intervention in areas related to international security.In the economic sphere, there will likely be a slowdown in the country’s economy. In a recent article for the Project Syndicate, leading Brazilian economist Laura Carvalho and American Nobel Prize winner Joseph Stiglitz say that Flávio Bolsonaro’s plans to slash public spending by as much as 1.5% of GDP could push Brazil into recession, hurt workers and small businesses, and drain tax revenue — all without solving the country’s debt problem.Also, judging by the composition of the coalition supporting Flávio Bolsonaro — leading figures in the financial markets and the agribusiness as the main ones — I predict his victory would hurt the country’s reindustrialization process. These two sectors would certainly receive more attention, and industry — one of Worker’s Party President Lula’s priorities — would suffer. But I’m making this prediction based only on what I see around me, since Flávio Bolsonaro’s government plan is full of gaps. There’s nothing very concrete in it — what really drives Flávio Bolsonaro’s voters, in fact, is an anti-Worker’s Party sentiment.Another important point would be a greater presence of major foreign tech platforms in the country. Currently, they are under restraint, especially by Brazil’s Federal Supreme Court. These companies would certainly find more room to operate and face fewer obstacles in the Brazilian market if Flávio Bolsonaro wins.This trend is already on the horizon, with arguments in favor of freedom of expression and the invocation of individual freedoms — which clearly serve the interests of these major digital platforms. This has already happened in the United States, with Donald Trump offering Elon Musk a government position, in addition to making several gestures toward Big Tech tycoons.The AI RevolutionThere is a recent article published in Brazilian daily Gazeta do Povo by Marcos Degaut, a professor of International Relations who served in the former presidents’ Michel Temer and Jair Bolsonaro administrations, and Lindolpho Cademartori, a diplomat who belongs to Flávio Bolsonaro’s inner circle, offering a glimpse of what the roadmap will look like.According to them, we are living through an “Artificial Intelligence Revolution” that is comparable to the Industrial Revolution of the 18th and 19th centuries. It is a new revolution in modes of production, in social relations and in all areas of human life. And right now, international alliances are being redrawn as a result.The United States leads the field in artificial intelligence, robotics and cutting-edge technology, followed by China. Since Brazil lacks the effective means to enter this contest for digital sovereignty, the authors say, it should align itself with the United States, which they view as more trustworthy than China.On this issue, Donald Trump has already signaled that whoever is not with the United States is against it. He even went so far as to decree that the most advanced AI models from the company Anthropic (specifically “Claude”) could not be used by the rest of the world, and would be restricted to U.S. companies and citizens, arguing that this is a matter of national security. Essentially, this is simply the policy of delaying or impeding Chinese technological development being put into practice.Degaut and Cademartori’s argument is that if Brazil does not align itself with the United States, it will not have access to the AI Revolution. It will be segregated — cut off from the world. But how would Brazil contribute to this Western AI alliance? To put it quite bluntly: with water for data centers and rare earth elements for producing the metals needed to make the revolution happen.Brazil would, once again, remain a reliable supplier of critical minerals and water resources. It’s the same old formula, just digitally revamped. It’s the Big Tech companies embracing peripheral realism to keep Brazil trapped in a model of extractivism that we’ve known all too well for 500 years.Dawisson Belém Lopes não presta consultoria, trabalha, possui ações ou recebe financiamento de qualquer empresa ou organização que poderia se beneficiar com a publicação deste artigo e não revelou nenhum vínculo relevante além de seu cargo acadêmico.