郭莉莉, PEI-LIN WU2026年10月23日周四，随着台风“蔷琵”逼近该地区，台湾北部基隆市海岸涌起巨浪。 Chiang Ying-Ying/Associated PressIn Taiwan, typhoons are not just tropical storms that cause flooding and damage. They can make or break a mayor’s chance at re-election for reasons one might not expect.在台湾，台风不仅是造成洪涝和破坏的热带风暴。出于一些意想不到的原因，台风甚至能决定一位市长能否连任成功。Several times a year between summer and fall, when the subtropical island is hit by cyclones, city and county mayors must decide whether to order a “typhoon day off,” when government offices, schools and most businesses will close.每年夏秋之交，当这座亚热带岛屿遭受气旋袭击时，各县、市长必须决定是否下令放“台风假”，届时政府机关、学校和大多数企业都将关门停业。Taiwan has been bracing for Typhoon Champi, which was at one point a super typhoon and the strongest storm of 2026. On Thursday, the mayor of Taipei, Chiang Wan-an, called a typhoon day off for Friday, and urged residents to be careful. The storm is expected to pass the northeastern part of Taiwan, bringing heavy rain and winds of 141 miles per hour.台湾一直在积极应对台风“蔷琵”，它曾一度发展为超强台风，也是2026年最强劲的风暴。周四，台北市长蒋万安宣布周五放台风假，并提醒市民注意安全。预计该风暴将经过台湾东北部，带来暴雨和每小时约226公里的强风。The decision did not come as a surprise to many, not least because of the weather forecast. Mr. Chiang faces re-election in late November, and typhoon days are popular with residents, who often spend the day at home. If the storm turns out to be weaker than forecast, many go shopping, to the movies or to sing karaoke. (Mr. Chiang, a member of the Nationalist Party, also called the Kuomintang, is in a close race with Puma Shen, a popular legislator from the governing Democratic Progressive Party.)对许多人来说，这一决定并不意外，这不仅是因为天气预报的缘故。蒋万安面临着11月下旬的连任选举，而台风假很受市民欢迎，他们通常会在家中度过这一天。如果风暴最终比预报的要弱，许多人会去逛街、看电影或唱卡拉OK。（蒋万安是国民党成员，目前正与执政的民进党中颇具人气的立法委员沈伯洋进行激烈竞争。）Almost all cities and counties across Taiwan’s main island had suspended work and class on Friday.周五，台湾本岛几乎所有的县市都已停班停课。Because typhoons are such a common part of daily life in Taiwan, decisions like whether or not to call a typhoon day matter to voters. Between 2001 and 2023, Taipei had 40 typhoon days off, an average of almost two days a year, according to The News Lens, a local publication. Other cities like Yilan on the northeastern coast, which is often hit badly by storms, had 45 days off in that period.正因为台风在台湾日常生活中十分常见，是否宣布放台风假这样的决定对选民来说至关重要。据当地媒体关键评论网报道，在2001年至2023年期间，台北放了40天台风假，平均每年近两天。而经常遭受风暴严重袭击的东北海岸城市宜兰等其他城市在该时期内放了45天假。According to Austin Wang, an associate professor at the University of Nevada who has studied the electoral politics of typhoon days, the likelihood that a mayor announces closure of work and school increases 31 percent during an election year.曾深入研究台风假选举政治的内华达大学副教授王宏恩表示，在选举年，市长宣布停班停课的可能性会增加31%。Unlike other policies that can take months or years to evaluate, he said, it is clear within a day or two whether an official made the correct call. For instance, if a typhoon day is called and the storm turns out to be severe, the official made the right decision. The fact that the mayor’s office alone determines whether to call a day off also means that the decision is entirely the mayor’s responsibility.他指出，与可能需要数月或数年才能评估的其他政策不同，官员的决策是否正确，在一两天内就能见分晓。例如，如果宣布了台风假且风暴确实很严重，那么官员就做出了正确的决定。而仅由市长办公室来决定是否停班停课这一事实，也意味着该决定完全由市长承担责任。“It is a very easy criteria for people to evaluate whether their incumbent was doing a good job or a bad job,” Mr. Wang said. When it comes to re-election, he said, “people will remember if the mayor made the right or wrong decision.”“对于人们来说，这是一个非常简单直观的标准，可以评估现任官员做得好还是不好，”王宏恩说。谈到连任时，他表示：“人们会记住市长做出的决定是正确还是错误。”Tickets for many high-speed trains leaving Taipei during working hours on Friday were fully or almost fully booked on Thursday. Supermarkets stocked extra supplies of water, produce and instant noodles, a common staple during typhoons.周四，许多周五工作时间离开台北的高铁车票已被预订一空或接近售罄。超市增补了饮用水、农产品和方便面等额外物资，方便面是台风期间常见的日常主食。On social media, residents discussed their plans to spend the four-day weekend binge watching television shows and sleeping. (Monday is a public holiday in Taiwan.) Earlier in the day, residents left comments on Mr. Chiang’s Facebook page, asking him to announce a day off.在社交媒体上，居民们讨论着利用这个四天长周末追剧和睡觉的计划。（下周一也是台湾的公休假日。）当天早些时候，居民们在蒋万安的Facebook页面上留言，要求他宣布放假。Despite the popularity of such days, unnecessarily calling one can come back to haunt a candidate. Business groups often oppose typhoon days off because of the cost to companies, most of which still pay their employees for the day. Taiwan’s stock market also closes for the day if work and school are suspended in Taipei.尽管这类假期很受欢迎，但无必要地宣布放假可能会给候选人带来负面影响。商业团体往往反对台风假，因为这会增加企业的成本，其中大多数企业仍然需要支付员工当天的工资。如果台北停班停课，台湾股市当天也会休市。In July, when Typhoon Bavi approached Taiwan, Mr. Chiang ordered a day off on a Friday for residents to prepare for the storm’s arrival on the weekend. Commentators and his political rivals accused him of inventing the concept of a “typhoon preparation day” just to pander to voters.今年7月，当台风“巴威”逼近台湾时，蒋万安下令在周五放假一天，以便居民为周末风暴的到来做准备。评论员和他的政治对手指责他炮制“防台准备日”的概念，纯粹是为了讨好选民。But not calling one quickly enough may be even worse. When Typhoon Mikra passed over central Taiwan in June, the mayors of the city of Hsinchu and the county of Hsinchu, home to Taiwan’s largest semiconductor companies, were criticized for not issuing a typhoon day off. The next day, as the storm arrived, the county mayor, Yang Wenke, issued an apology and announced the suspension of work and school. That storm left two people dead.但不够迅速宣布放假可能会更糟。今年6月，当台风“米克拉”横扫台湾中部时，台湾最大半导体公司所在地新竹市和新竹县的市长及县长因未发布台风假而受到批评。第二天，随着风暴到来，县长杨文科发表道歉声明并宣布停班停课。那场风暴造成两人死亡。Lai Ching-te, the president of Taiwan, has been both praised and derided for his weather-related decisions. In 2012, when Typhoon Tembin approached the southern city of Tainan, Mr. Lai, then that city’s mayor, decided it would be business as usual.台湾领导人赖清德曾因与天气相关的决定而同时获得赞扬和嘲讽。2012年，当台风“天秤”逼近南部城市台南时，时任该市市长的赖清德决定照常上班上课。When the storm proved to be light, he earned the nickname “God Lai.”当风暴后来证明较轻时，他赢得了“赖神”的绰号。But the next year, when once again he resisted pressure to declare a day off during another typhoon, the storm caused severe flooding in his city. He issued a public apology.但到了第二年，当另一场台风来袭时，他再次顶住压力拒绝宣布停工，结果风暴在他的城市引发了严重的水灾。他为此公开道歉。郭莉莉(Lily Kuo)是《纽约时报》报道中国记者，常驻台北。Pei-Lin Wu是《纽约时报》记者/研究员，报道台湾和中国新闻。翻译：晋其角点击查看本文英文版。