Morning Kickstart: Dollar mixed as oil tops $100 and European stocks retreat

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In the morning video above, I take a look at the three major currency pairs—EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD—from a technical perspective. For each pair, I outline the bias, the risk-defining levels and the targets that would give either the buyers or sellers more control. It is important to have a roadmap technically. I help provide your roadmap. The North American session gets underway with the dollar mixed but mostly lower, crude oil above $100, and US and European equities are under pressure. Treasury yields are split, with the 2-year yield edging higher while longer-term yields decline.That combination deserves attention. Higher oil keeps the inflation discussion alive, but the decline in longer-term yields shows that the bond market is not responding with a uniform move higher in borrowing costs.Housing is the main focus on the U.S. economic calendar. Building permits and housing starts arrive first, followed by pending home sales. Those reports will give traders another look at how the housing market is handling elevated financing costs.Dollar mixed, with gains concentrated in the Canadian dollar and Swiss francThe dollar is lower against six of the seven major currencies, although the euro is effectively unchanged.From the dollar’s perspective:Against the CAD: down approximately 0.39%, with USDCAD at 1.4055.Against the CHF: down approximately 0.33%, with USDCHF at 0.8238.Against the GBP: down approximately 0.28%, with GBPUSD at 1.3339.Against the NZD: down approximately 0.26%, with NZDUSD at 0.5677.Against the JPY: down approximately 0.21%, with USDJPY at 158.14.Against the AUD: down approximately 0.07%, with AUDUSD at 0.6983.Against the EUR: marginally higher, with EURUSD down approximately 0.01% at 1.1209.The Canadian dollar is outperforming the greenback as oil advances. The euro is the exception to the broader dollar softness, with EURUSD trading near the lower end of its overnight range.Currency ranges: EURUSD still has room to roamUsing the displayed session highs and lows and the 22-day average ranges (around a month of trading):EURUSD: 1.1205 to 1.1235 — approximately 30 pips, or 46% of its 65-pip average.USDJPY: 158.04 to 158.59 — approximately 55 pips, or 59% of its 94-pip average.GBPUSD: 1.3301 to 1.3363 — approximately 62 pips, or 85% of its 73-pip average.USDCHF: 0.8239 to 0.8271 — approximately 32 pips, or 62% of its 52-pip average.USDCAD: 1.4046 to 1.4110 — approximately 64 pips, or 102% of its 63-pip average.AUDUSD: 0.6971 to 0.6998 — approximately 27 pips, or 56% of its 48-pip average.NZDUSD: 0.5662 to 0.5689 — approximately 27 pips.EURUSD has completed less than half of its average daily range, leaving meaningful room for an extension. AUDUSD and USDJPY also have room to roam.GBPUSD has already covered most of a normal day’s range, while USDCAD has slightly exceeded its average. That does not prevent either pair from extending farther. The average provides context; the technical levels determine where traders can define and limit risk.Oil above $100 as Middle East risks persistCrude oil is higher:WTI futures: $101.01, up $2.47 or 2.51%.The separate USOIL quote: $100.56, up $2.33 or 2.37%.InvestingLive’s “Crude oil surges further amid Houthis attacks on Saudi energy targets and stalled US-Iran negotiations” reports that stalled negotiations and continued Saudi-Houthi hostilities are keeping the geopolitical risk premium elevated. Reports of a possible diplomatic breakthrough remain unconfirmed.For traders, that leaves oil sensitive to the next headline. A confirmed agreement could change the supply-risk outlook quickly. Continued attacks or another setback in negotiations would keep those risks in focus.European data show an uncomfortable mixThe European releases combined stronger producer-price inflation with weaker expectations:German PPI: up 1.9% month over month versus 1.5% expected and 1.1% previously.German ZEW economic sentiment: 28.1 versus 30.2 expected and 34.7 previously.Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment: 18.5 versus 23.6 expected and 25.8 previously.Eurozone current-account surplus: €8.7 billion versus €29.2 billion expected and €27.2 billion previously.The combination is difficult: price pressures increased while the forward-looking sentiment readings disappointed.European equities are lower:Germany’s DAX: down 0.75%.France’s CAC 40: down 0.80%.U.K. FTSE 100: down 0.52%.Spain’s IBEX: down 0.62%.Euro Stoxx 50: down 0.54%.Italy’s FTSE MIB: down 0.97%.China holds ratesChina left its loan prime rates unchanged overnight. InvestingLive’s Asia-Pacific market wrap also highlighted a stronger yuan fixing alongside weaker Asian equities.US stocks are lower led by the Nasdaq 100:The major US stock indices are trading lower across the board. The snapshot of the major indices implied by futures shows:Dow -38 pointsS&P -15.25 pointsNasdaq 100 -122 pointsTreasury yields: Longer maturities lead the decline2-year: 4.7676%, up approximately 0.7 basis point.5-year: 4.9219%, down approximately 0.7 basis point.10-year: 5.1105%, down approximately 2.6 basis points.30-year: 5.4330%, down 4.0 basis points.The larger declines are at the longer end of the curve. Even with those declines, the 10-year yield remains above 5%, keeping financing costs an important part of the housing-market backdrop.Gold lower; Bitcoin below $82,000Gold: approximately $4,124.35, down $15.75 or 0.38%.Silver: $57.137, up approximately 0.13%.Bitcoin: $81,381, down $459 or 0.56%.Gold is lower despite the generally softer dollar and declining longer-term Treasury yields. Bitcoin is also lower, trading below $82,000.North American calendarAll times are Eastern.8:15 a.m. — ADP weekly employment update. The prior reading was approximately 24.8K. This measures the average weekly change in private employment over a rolling four-week period.8:30 a.m. — Building permits: 1.39 million expected versus 1.40 million previously.8:30 a.m. — Housing starts: 1.30 million expected versus 1.28 million previously. The Census Bureau confirms the release time for the September construction report.10:00 a.m. — Pending home sales: down 0.6% expected versus a 0.3% increase previously. The National Association of Realtors confirms the release time.Starts measure construction getting underway. Permits provide a look at the potential construction pipeline. Pending home sales track signed contracts for existing homes. Together, they help show whether housing activity is stabilizing or losing momentum.EURUSD: Sellers press toward the session lowEURUSD is trading near 1.1209, just above the session low at 1.1205. The euro has failed to participate in the gains seen in most other major currencies against the dollar.The immediate question is whether sellers can break below 1.1205 and stay below. A sustained break would extend the session range and give sellers more intraday control. A break that quickly reverses would show that sellers had their shot and failed to keep the move going.The session high at 1.1235 is the upside reference. With the range still relatively narrow, there is room for the next technical break to extend.[Insert EURUSD chart here.]USDJPY: Buyers need to defend the session floorUSDJPY is trading near 158.14 after declining from a session high of 158.59. The low is 158.04.That puts the price closer to the session floor, with 158.00 just below it. Sellers have the stronger intraday hand while the pair remains near those lows. A sustained break below 158.04 and then 158.00 would extend that control.For buyers, holding the low is the first step. They would then need a recovery through the resistance levels outlined in the video to show that the downside pressure is easing.[Insert USDJPY chart here.]GBPUSD: Buyers hold a gain, but the high remains a hurdleGBPUSD is trading near 1.3339, above its session low at 1.3301 but below the high at 1.3363.Buyers have the gain on the day. The next question is whether they can build on it. A break above 1.3363—and the ability to stay above—would extend their control.The pair has already completed about 85% of its average range. Further gains remain possible, but buyers need to show follow-through. A rotation back toward 1.3301 would put the day’s recovery under pressure.In my book Attacking Currency Trends, I emphasize using the technical tools to define risk. The daily range gives traders perspective. A moving average, swing area or retracement level gives them a place to lean, with risk defined and limited. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.