Skip to contentHome page Seeking Alpha - Power to InvestorsInterest RatesOct 21, 2026, 4:46 AM ETiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)IEFNicolas Bolsinger111 FollowersI rate iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF a BUY, citing an unsustainably high term premium and a likely catalyst from the upcoming Treasury refunding.TLT’s sell-off is driven by real yields and uncertainty, not inflation expectations, with the term premium at its highest since 2010.The November 4 Treasury refunding could trigger a reversal, as seen in 2023, especially if coupon sizes remain unchanged and buybacks increase.Key risks include a hawkish Fed, inflation broadening beyond energy, adverse supply surprises at the refunding, or Japanese selling of longer-term Treasuries if the yen weakens enough to force another.Greggory DiSalvo/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesThe iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has had a rough year. It's down about 5% in 2026, at $80, having hit its year-low of $77 on October 5, as the 10-yearThis article was written byNicolas Bolsinger111 FollowersI write macro and single-name equity research from Buenos Aires. My core coverage is rates, mortgage finance and housing, where policy expectations, the curve and credit meet, and emerging markets, with a focus on South America, where I bring a local read on politics and policy that is hard to get from New York. I extend into commodities, AI infrastructure and tech when they drive the cycle.My method is the part I’d want judged. Every call comes with an explicit falsification test and a date: I publish what would make me wrong before the outcome is known, then grade it publicly. My rate-path calls on the Fed, ECB, BoE and BoJ are graded in my published papers in my Linkedin. Every figure is reproducible from my own tooling: factor models, Monte Carlo DCFs, seasonal-placebo tests and a self-built macro terminal.Economics student, Universidad de Buenos Aires.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.CommentsTo ensure this doesn’t happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser.Is this happening to you frequently? Please report it on our feedback forum.If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh.