Brent prices are above $116 and more than 2.5% on the day as the market sniffs out a weekend attack on Iran.The war hasn't gone to Trump's plan and Republican polling and approval numbers are dismal. In addition, Israeli PM Netanyahu is unlikely to remain Prime Minister after Tuesday's vote (odds around 30% of him remaining PM). Trump himself outlined the playbook 14 years ago:The reports seem to indicate this will be a short-lived attacked perhaps aimed at pickaxe mountain and some missile sites. My best guess is that Trump attacks and then tries to declare victory early next week in order to reset the talking points in a deeply unpopular war. The problem is that oil prices aren't exactly cooperating at the moment and that's a tough sell.The big complication is that we don't know what Iran has in reserve and how far it will go in retaliation. There were all kinds of warnings this week about cutting subsea cables, attacking data centers, attacking US bases in the region and attacking gulf energy infrastructure. US attacks might cross that line and result in the escalation spiral we've been in for awhile.What makes me a bit more optimistic is that this attack appears to be leaking. That means it's leaking to Iran too, or could have even been telegraphed. In short, it could all be for show, like so many of the Iran-Israel attacks in the prior few years.Brent daily:In any case, all of this is speculation. We've learned from Trump this year that there really isn't a plan, it's just all improvisation and the analysis doesn't need to go any deeper than his tweet from 14 years ago. His aim -- if he attacks -- is likely to simply reshuffle the deck and try to find a way out of a quagmire.In better news for oil bears, a trilateral meeting between Ukraine, Russia and the US is planned for early November. The tone from Zelensky in the past few days appears to have changed and maybe there's an opening for peace. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.