Israelis head to the polls on October 27 for a general election that will pit the right-wing bloc of current prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu against a bloc consisting of centre and left-wing parties. The governing parties and the opposition grouping both look set to fall short of an outright majority.Everything may now hinge on the performance of the two small Arab parties, Ra’am and the Joint List, whose seats in the Knesset (parliament) could provide the opposition with an opportunity to unseat Netanyahu.There are about 2.1 million Arab-Israelis, making up roughly 21% of the country’s population. Their interests tend to be represented by Ra’am and the Joint List, both of which have played a more prominent role in Israeli politics in recent years. In the aftermath of the 2021 election, the Ra'am party leader, Mansour Abbas, joined with opposition leaders from across the political spectrum to unseat Netanyahu. This made Ra’am the first independent Arab party to join an Israeli coalition. Naftali Bennett’s government collapsed after one year, opening the door for Netanyahu to return. But the episode shattered the conventional political wisdom that Arab parties in the Knesset should be excluded from government based on ideological, political and security factors. Despite this breakthrough, Arab-led parties have struggled to maintain legitimacy and trust from Israeli Jews since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7 2023. Arab citizens, often critical of Israeli military actions in Gaza, have been treated with increased suspicion and hostility by many right-wing and centrist Israelis. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, for example, has spoken during his election campaign of his desire to “judaize” the Negev region in the south and Galilee in the north where many Arabs live. Ahmad Tibi, an Arab-Israeli politician, has also spoken of receiving hundreds of threats to his wellbeing since 2023.In September, Israel’s Central Elections Committee – a body controlled by the Netanyahu government – went as far as barring both Ra’am and the Joint List from running in the election. The committee alleged the parties supported armed struggle against Israel and seek to negate Israel’s character as a Jewish state. The decision was quickly overturned by the Supreme Court. But the effort nevertheless demonstrated the Israeli right’s hostility to the Arab community.The campaign trailBoth Ra’am and the Joint List have sought to reassure Jewish-Israeli voters and have stressed their commitment to Israelis of all backgrounds. Abbas and Joint List leader, Yousef Jabareen, have condemned the October 7 attacks. Abbas has also moved Ra’am away from its traditional Islamic roots and recently appointed Jewish-Israeli Yoav Segalovitz, a centrist politician and former senior police figure, to the number two seat in his party. This move has widely been seen as an attempt to make the party palatable to the Jewish electorate and ensure Ra’am is seen as a serious partner to a wary opposition bloc.Among Arab-Israelis, voting at national elections has often been a contentious issue. Turnout among this community in the last two decades has oscillated between 45% and 65% in a country where the average overall turnout that tends to hover around 70%. Many Arab-Israelis have felt frustrated over their perception that, at best, Jewish-Israeli lawmakers do not care about the issues affecting them and, at worst, are actively hostile to the community. Some have boycotted elections altogether.But this election seems likely to see a high turnout from Arab-Israelis. There is a sense of anger in the community with how the most right-wing government in Israel’s history has treated Arab citizens. And with Arab parties now having formed part of a government, many feel hopeful they could have a significant influence on policy.In this regard, Abbas’s move to bring in Segalovitz will not only reassure some Jewish-Israelis. It also demonstrates to Arab voters that Ra’am means to tackle the issues most important to them. Formerly as part of the centrist Yesh Atid party, Segalovitz was involved in a parliamentary group focused on tackling violence in Arab society during the Bennett government. This period saw declining rates of violent crimes in Arab-majority areas of Israel.The rate of violent crimes has since climbed. According to a recent poll by the Israel Democracy Institute, over 50% of Arab-Israeli respondents believe that rampant gang violence is the most important issue which will influence their decision of who to vote for. Ra’am has made it clear that Segalovitz would be its nominee for national security minister in any new government they were part of. With these issues likely to drive turnout, the two Arab-led parties could receive as many as 15 seats, according to some polls. Even if this number turns out to be less, in a gridlocked and deeply polarised parliament where neither bloc have the seats to form a government on their own, Arab parties would hold the balance of power.However, it remains to be seen if opposition parties would be willing to form a government that includes one or more Arab parties. An anti-Netanyahu coalition would include parties from across the Israeli political spectrum. This ranges from the hawkish Yisrael Beiteinu to the leftist Democrats.Such a coalition unseated Netanyahu in 2021. But the post-October 7 political atmosphere means many parties have ruled out including Arab parties in a new government. Among those to reject power sharing with Arab parties is prime ministerial frontrunner Gadi Eisenkot, a political newcomer and the former IDF chief of staff. His centrist Yashar party looks likely to become the biggest party in the Knesset.One option would be to form a minority government and rely on Arab parties for support from outside. This approach has precedent. When Yitzhak Rabin’s government fractured in 1993, he relied on Arab parties outside of government to keep his administration alive and pass legislation.The Joint List has already stated its willingness to support the formation of an anti-Netanyahu government from outside if it meets their conditions. These include a budgeted plan to fight crime in Arab communities. However, several opposition parties have already stated they would not wish to rely on Arab support.The opposition bloc may be forced to chose between two options it finds deeply unpalatable: work with the Arab parties to remove Netanyahu and his government or face the risk of deadlock and new elections. This latter option could allow Netanyahu – an inveterate political survivor – to emerge victorious.James Sunderland does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.