Gold under 4,000: down, up or sideways from here?GoldOANDA:XAUUSDRizq-FXGold (XAUUSD) closed the week at 3,995.81, down from the 4,697 high in late August and now at the bottom of its six-month range (low 3,942). Below 4,098 the daily structure stays down; above 4,217 it flips. Key levels - 3,942: the six-month low. The floor the chart has not broken yet. - 3,995: where price closed Friday, right on the 4,000 round number. - 4,098: the Fibonacci "wrong if" line. A close above it weakens the down read. - 4,124 / 4,142 / 4,160: the 61.8%, 50% and 38.2% retracement lines of the fall. A close over 4,124 puts price back in the halfway zone. - 4,190 to 4,217: the last lower high. A close above 4,217 breaks the falling structure. If it goes down: (most likely) What would show it: daily closes under 4,000 with RSI staying below 50 (it is 33 now). Lower highs and lower lows are still printing. Where to act: short from 4,020 to 4,060 on a bounce that fails; out above 4,098; first target 3,942, then the area under it. Odds: likely. If it goes up: What would show it: a close above 4,124, then above 4,142, with RSI climbing back over 50. Momentum already showed a small lag earlier, so a bounce is not a surprise. Where to act: long from 3,950 to 3,990 if the 3,942 low holds; out below 3,925; first target 4,124, then 4,160. Odds: possible. If it goes sideways: What would show it: price stuck between 3,942 and 4,100 with small daily candles and RSI flat near 35 to 45. Where to act: stay patient until a daily close settles it. Wait for a close outside the range, or fade the edges only with a tight out level. Odds: less likely. Intermarket read: gold falling here is gold reacting to its own trend, not a risk signal for stocks. If oil or gold rises while stocks fall, that is risk or supply pricing, not a warning by itself. Market Structure drew the swing highs and lows and the breaks, Fibonacci drew the retracement lines, and RSI drew the momentum turns and the divergence line. Not financial advice.