Dow Jones 30 Rises Moderately to Test Resistance LevelUS Wall Street 30 IndexPEPPERSTONE:US30NouzTraderBased on the price structure on the H4 timeframe, the Dow Jones has shown a change in character—shifting from bearish to bullish—following a significant decline throughout September and into early October. US30 After reaching a demand area, the price staged a robust recovery and began forming a new bullish structure. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Market Structure Identification - ⚡Bullish Change of Character (CHoCH): Between October 9 and 13, the price initiated an impulsive rise from the 50,800–51,000 zone. This move broke through several minor swing highs in the 51,600–51,900 range, signaling that selling pressure is waning and buyers are gaining control over the short-term structure. - ⚡Bullish Break of Structure (BOS): The price subsequently cleared the 51,950–52,000 resistance zone, which had previously hindered any rebound. This breakout serves as an initial confirmation of a bullish BOS within the H4 structure. - ⚡Resistance Test: The price is currently hovering around 52,606, just below the 52,749 resistance level. While this indicates that bullish momentum remains intact, there is a potential risk of profit-taking or a rejection as the price tests this resistance. Price Action Interpretation: The H4 structure has shifted into a bullish recovery. As long as the price holds above the 51,950–52,000 support zone, the potential for further upside remains open. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Elliott Wave Analysis From an Elliott Wave perspective, the decline from the September peak down to 50,583 may represent the completion of the preceding bearish structure. The rise observed since early October could be interpreted as the beginning of a new bullish impulse or an ABC correction against the broader downtrend. Primary Elliott Wave Scenario — Bullish Impulse Wave 150,583 → 51,650Initial bullish impulse Wave 251,650 → 50,750Bullish correction Wave 350,750 → 52,450Bullish expansion Wave 452,450 → 51,950Correction / consolidation Wave 551,950 → 52,749+Potential extended impulse This count is a tentative Elliott Wave scenario, not a confirmed five-wave sequence. The chart structure contains several overlapping swings, so detailed validation on the H1 timeframe is required. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Elliott Wave Projection - 🎯Primary scenario — Bullish Wave 5: If the price successfully breaks above 52,749.3 with a strong H4 candle, the upward movement could potentially continue toward 53,000–53,200. This area serves as the next resistance target, rather than a confirmed Fibonacci-derived level. - 🎯Alternative scenario — ABC corrective decline: If the price faces rejection at 52,749 and breaks back below the 51,950 support level, the recent rise may represent an ABC correction nearing its conclusion. A decline could then test the 51,600–51,400 range. From an Elliott Wave perspective, the price’s ability to maintain a "higher low" is a crucial factor in distinguishing the start of a new bullish trend from a mere corrective rebound. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ RSI & Momentum Confirmation The RSI (14) on the chart is currently around 62.09, while the RSI moving average sits at approximately 56.55. These conditions suggest the following: - The RSI is above the 50 level, indicating that bullish momentum is relatively dominant. - The RSI is above its moving average, indicating that buyers still hold the momentum advantage. - The RSI has not yet crossed above 70, meaning it does not yet signal an extreme overbought condition. - The RSI is trending upward in line with the price strengthening, supporting a bullish recovery structure. Nevertheless, a bullish RSI does not guarantee that resistance will be broken. The price reaction at 52.749 remains the primary confirmation.