XAUUSD — Gold Is Running Out of Room. Who Breaks First? GoldOANDA:XAUUSDFelix_MacroTrade Gold is trading around 4,123, and the market is approaching an interesting turning point after several sessions of selling pressure. The recovery attempts have become weaker, but sellers are also struggling to push price below the immediate demand area. What catches my attention is not the current consolidation. It's the fact that gold is being squeezed between a descending resistance line and a rising support structure. This compression is taking place beneath a broader bearish market structure, making the next breakout particularly important. For me, 4,110–4,155 is the range that could determine the next meaningful move. Macro Perspective — The Dollar Remains an Obstacle Gold continues to face a challenging macroeconomic environment as the US dollar maintains its relative strength against several major currencies. Following the Fed's September 25-basis-point rate increase, expectations of additional monetary tightening have remained an important factor influencing market sentiment. The possibility of further rate hikes supports the argument for elevated US Treasury yields, which can reduce the appeal of holding non-yielding assets such as gold. However, expectations are not policy decisions, and the direction of the dollar and bond yields will remain sensitive to upcoming economic data and Fed commentary. My interpretation: The macro backdrop continues to limit gold's upside potential, but the market may still produce a technical recovery before sellers regain control. That is why I prefer to let price structure determine my next decision rather than rely on monetary-policy expectations alone. SMC Structure — Buyers Are Defending, but Have They Taken Control? Looking at the chart, gold previously developed a series of bearish Changes of Character (CHoCH), confirming that sellers were gradually weakening the bullish structure. The decline accelerated before finding significant demand near 4,073–4,080. From that low, buyers produced a sharp recovery, but the rebound failed to establish a convincing bullish continuation above the 4,185–4,190 area. The market subsequently formed lower highs and returned toward 4,105–4,112, where demand has once again appeared. This is the detail I find particularly important. Sellers have maintained the broader bearish structure, but they have not yet succeeded in breaking the buyers' immediate defensive zone. From an SMC perspective, a liquidity sweep below the recent lows followed by bullish displacement could create the conditions for a short-term recovery. However, I would still need a confirmed bullish structural shift before treating that move as anything more than a corrective bounce. Trendline Compression — Why the Next Break Matters Gold is currently trading inside a tightening triangle. The descending trendline connects the previous lower highs, while the ascending trendline originates from the strong demand reaction near 4,073. Both boundaries are approaching one another around the current price. The first obstacle for buyers is the descending trendline near 4,128–4,135. A confirmed breakout, followed by a successful retest, could allow gold to recover toward 4,155–4,156. This is the first important bullish breakout target on my chart. If buyers can reclaim this level and establish a bullish Break of Structure (BOS), the next recovery objective becomes 4,183–4,190. But that is where I would become more cautious again. The 4,183–4,190 region represents major recovery resistance, followed by the stronger higher-timeframe supply zone near 4,194–4,200. A short-term bullish breakout does not automatically erase the larger bearish structure. A rejection from either resistance zone could attract sellers and initiate another downward rotation. My Trading Perspective Primary Scenario — Bullish Recovery Into Major Resistance My immediate preference is to watch for a possible bullish breakout, provided gold continues defending 4,105–4,112. If price breaks above the descending trendline and confirms the move with bullish displacement, I would initially focus on 4,155. A sustained reclaim of this level could open the path toward 4,183–4,190. However, I would treat that region as a major decision area rather than assume the recovery will continue without interruption. A bearish CHoCH or liquidity sweep followed by rejection could signal that sellers are returning. Alternative Scenario — Demand Breaks and the Downtrend Resumes If gold loses the ascending trendline and breaks below 4,105, the short-term recovery structure would weaken significantly. A failed attempt to reclaim that support would strengthen the bearish continuation scenario. In that case, attention would shift toward 4,073–4,080, the previous major liquidity area. A decisive breakdown below 4,073 would further undermine the recovery outlook. Key Price Zones to Watch Current price: 4,120–4,125 Immediate trendline resistance: 4,128–4,135 First bullish breakout target: 4,155–4,156 Major recovery resistance: 4,183–4,190 Higher-timeframe supply: 4,194–4,200 Immediate defensive demand: 4,105–4,112 Major downside liquidity: 4,073–4,080 Bullish confirmation: Break above the descending trendline, successful retest, and a bullish structural shift toward 4,155. Stronger bullish confirmation: A confirmed BOS above 4,155. Bearish confirmation: Sustained break below 4,105 followed by a failed reclaim. Felix's Perspective A market that stops falling isn't necessarily bullish. Sometimes, it's simply preparing for the next liquidity move. Gold has entered a compression phase where buyers are defending support while sellers continue controlling the larger structure. I see potential for a short-term recovery, but I am not ready to call it a trend reversal. My first focus is whether gold can break the descending trendline and reclaim 4,155. If that happens, 4,183–4,190 becomes the next area where I expect the market to reveal whether sellers still have control. If the triangle breaks lower instead, 4,105 becomes the key level protecting buyers from another decline toward 4,073. My view: The triangle may trigger the move, but the reaction at 4,155 and 4,190 will tell us whether the recovery has real strength. What's your view? Will gold break above the triangle and challenge 4,190, or is this consolidation just another pause before sellers return?