VALERIE HOPKINS2026年10月23日去年，特朗普总统与俄罗斯总统普京在阿拉斯加的安克雷奇会面。 Doug Mills/The New York TimesLast October, President Trump imposed significant sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies, complaining that negotiations with President Vladimir V. Putin over ending the war in Ukraine “just don’t go anywhere.”去年10月，特朗普总统对俄罗斯两家最大的石油公司实施了重大制裁，并抱怨与普京总统就结束乌克兰战争的谈判“就是毫无进展”。A red-carpet welcome for the Russian leader in Alaska had done nothing to bring peace. A planned summit in Budapest had fallen apart. Mr. Trump had started to acknowledge that Mr. Putin might just be playing him, with no intention of making peace. Faint Ukrainian hopes glimmered of a Trump-Putin break.在阿拉斯加迎接这位俄罗斯领导人的红毯仪式并未带来和平。计划中的布达佩斯峰会告吹。特朗普已开始承认，普京可能只是在耍他，并无意实现和平。乌克兰方面对特朗普与普京决裂抱有微弱的希望。But the Russian president was playing a longer game.但这位俄罗斯总统在下更长远的棋。Now, exactly a year after the oil sanctions, Mr. Putin has never been so close to his goal of normalizing relations with Washington without having to make any compromises on Ukraine.如今，恰好在石油制裁一年之后，普京距离他的目标从未如此接近——在不就乌克兰问题作出任何妥协的情况下，与华盛顿实现关系正常化。Over the past week and a half, Mr. Trump has set aside years of U.S. foreign policy by openly embracing Mr. Putin and easing the economic pressure on the Kremlin. At the same time, Mr. Trump has vilified President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, the putative American ally trying to defend his nation against a Russian invasion.过去一周半里，特朗普抛开了美国多年的外交政策，公开拥抱普京，放松了对克里姆林宫的经济压力。与此同时，特朗普诋毁乌克兰总统泽连斯基，这位被视为美国盟友的领导人正竭力抵御俄罗斯的入侵。On Oct. 9, Mr. Trump announced that the United States would buy Russian diesel, asking for no concessions from Mr. Putin in return. The Trump administration went on to pressure Ukraine to stop striking oil refineries — Kyiv’s most powerful lever — and suspended Russia sanctions that Mr. Trump had just signed into law. Mr. Trump declared that “Russia, frankly, has been fine on Ukraine.”10月9日，特朗普宣布美国将购买俄罗斯柴油，且不要求普京作出任何让步作为回报。特朗普政府随后向乌克兰施压，要求其停止袭击俄罗斯炼油厂——这是基辅最有力的筹码——并暂停了特朗普刚刚签署成法的对俄制裁。特朗普宣称，“坦率地说，俄罗斯在乌克兰问题上一直还好。”The diesel deal was in part a political calculation by Mr. Trump before the midterm elections, as he tries to lower fuel prices. But that action and others that followed also reflect the president’s long-evident affinity for Mr. Putin, which the Russian leader has assiduously cultivated even while continuing the war and denying Mr. Trump a coveted prize.柴油协议一定程度上是特朗普在中期选举前为降低燃油价格而做出的政治考量。但这一行动以及随后的其他行动也反映出总统长期以来对普京显而易见的亲近，而这位俄罗斯领导人在继续战争、并且让特朗普得不到他所渴望的成果的同时，一直在精心培植这种亲近。Ever since Mr. Trump returned to office, Russia has sought to separate the conflict in Ukraine from potential business agreements and closer diplomatic ties with the United States. The Trump administration held back, even as it slashed aid to Ukraine, largely continuing a Biden administration policy of refraining from economic deals with Russia until Mr. Putin stopped the war.自特朗普重返白宫以来，俄罗斯一直试图将乌克兰冲突与潜在的商业协议以及与美国的更紧密外交关系区分开来。尽管特朗普政府大幅削减了对乌克兰的援助，但仍保持克制，基本上延续了拜登政府的政策：在普京停止战争之前，不与俄罗斯做经济交易。8月，俄罗斯的燃油短缺导致佩列斯拉夫尔-扎列斯基市郊外出现了排长队等加油的现象。The White House now says such deals will help Russia see the benefits of peace. The Kremlin said on Wednesday that Mr. Putin, meeting with Mr. Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, had agreed to talks with Ukraine and the United States next month. But they would involve relatively low-level representatives, and a Russian official played down the Kremlin’s openness to forging a comprehensive agreement now.白宫现在表示，此类协议有助于让俄罗斯看到和平的好处。克里姆林宫周三表示，普京在会见特朗普特使史蒂夫·威特科夫时，同意下个月与乌克兰和美国举行会谈。但会谈将由相对低级别的代表参加，且一名俄罗斯官员淡化了克里姆林宫现在愿意达成全面协议的可能性。Newly emboldened, Moscow is moving to assert itself as a global power equal to the United States and China, promoting a trilateral summit among them in November.莫斯科新近受到鼓舞，正采取行动，将自己定位为与美国和中国平起平坐的全球大国，推动在11月举行三方峰会。“In my personal view, victory has already been achieved,” the pro-Putin journalist Marina Akhmedova wrote on social media on Wednesday. “It is not just a matter of the 20 to 25 percent of territory we have liberated,” she added, referring to Russian-occupied land in Ukraine. “It is also about how the United States now engages with Russia.”“在我看来，胜利已经实现，”亲普京的记者玛丽娜·阿赫梅多娃周三在社交媒体上写道。“这不仅仅关于我们解放的20%到25%的领土，”她还说，她指的是俄罗斯占领的乌克兰土地。“还关于美国现在如何与俄罗斯打交道。”Many analysts call the economic incentives offered by Mr. Trump the wrong solution to a war being waged over political and security questions. Still, during his visit to St. Petersburg, Russia, on Wednesday, Mr. Witkoff said that the diesel deal was “another example of what we can achieve by working together.” Mr. Putin, in turn, suggested a deal on Russian fertilizer.许多分析人士认为，对于这场因政治和安全问题而爆发的战争来说，特朗普提供的经济激励措施并非正确的解决方案。不过，威特科夫周三在俄罗斯圣彼得堡访问期间表示，这一柴油协议是“我们通过合作能够取得成果的又一个例子”。普京则提议就俄罗斯化肥达成协议。Other potential agreements are on the horizon. Russia and the United States have discussed the sale of the international assets of the Russian energy giant Lukoil to an investor group that includes the U.S. government, The New York Times reported. The Times also reported that American negotiators have pitched the idea of Europe resuming purchases of large quantities of Russian gas piped through Ukraine.其他潜在协议也初现端倪。据《纽约时报》报道，俄罗斯和美国已讨论将俄罗斯能源巨头卢克石油的国际资产出售给一个包括美国政府的投资者集团。《纽约时报》还报道，美国谈判代表已提出让欧洲恢复通过乌克兰管道大量购买俄罗斯天然气的构想。After the St. Petersburg meeting, Mr. Putin’s economic envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, said that there was “no question” that Russian-U.S. economic cooperation “will strengthen.” He said that Mr. Putin had talked not only about a potential fertilizer deal with Mr. Witkoff, but also about “different projects such as data centers, many projects in energy and energy cooperation.”圣彼得堡会晤后，普京的经济特使基里尔·德米特里耶夫表示，俄美经济合作“必将加强”，这“毫无疑问”。他说，普京不仅与威特科夫谈到了潜在的化肥协议，还谈到了“数据中心等不同项目、能源领域的许多项目以及能源合作”。Playing to Mr. Trump’s style of personal diplomacy, Mr. Putin has portrayed actions that benefit Russia — like selling diesel to the United States — as favors to the American leader. That includes the release on Wednesday of Stephen James Hubbard, 74, a Michigan teacher whom the State Department called “wrongfully detained” by Russia.普京迎合特朗普的个人外交风格，将有利于俄罗斯的行动——比如向美国出售柴油——描绘成给这位美国领导人的恩惠。这包括周三释放74岁的斯蒂芬·詹姆斯·哈伯德，美国国务院此前称其被俄罗斯“错误拘留”。莫斯科市法院新闻处发布的视频截图，显示史蒂芬·哈伯德于2024年在俄罗斯首都出席听证会。Mr. Trump described the release — which was not part of any prisoner swap — as a sign of Mr. Putin’s high regard for him. Referring to himself in the third person, Mr. Trump wrote on social media that “the United States, out of respect for President Trump, was not required to give anything in return.”这次释放并非任何囚犯交换协议的一部分，特朗普将其描述为普京对他高度尊重的体现。特朗普在社交媒体上用第三人称指代自己，写道，“出于对特朗普总统的尊重，美国无需提供任何回报。”But later on Wednesday, Mr. Trump told reporters that Russia would not have let Mr. Hubbard go if sanctions had remained in place. The stage was also set, analysts said, by the diesel agreement and the potential for other business deals, giving Mr. Putin the sort of diplomatic victory he is craving after Western nations piled sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.但周三晚些时候，特朗普告诉记者，如果制裁仍然有效，俄罗斯就不会释放哈伯德。分析人士说，柴油协议和其他商业交易的可能性也为这一局面铺平了道路，在西方国家因俄罗斯入侵乌克兰而对其实施大量制裁后，给普京带来了渴望的那种外交胜利。“Even this small amount of normalization helped Putin to really deactivate Trump and the U.S. as potential helpers or enablers of Ukraine,” said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin.“即便是这种小规模的关系正常化，也确实帮助普京将特朗普和美国从乌克兰潜在的援助者或支持者角色中剔除，”柏林卡内基俄罗斯欧亚中心主任亚历山大·加布耶夫说。The diesel deal bolstered an argument Moscow has made that the Western countries that imposed sanctions on Russia would suffer without cheap Russian energy and other business ties. Mr. Putin has sought to engage with Washington to prove that Russia has too much heft to be ignored, analysts said.柴油协议强化了莫斯科一直以来的主张：对俄罗斯实施制裁的西方国家，如果没有廉价的俄罗斯能源和其他商业联系，将会遭受损失。分析人士说，普京寻求与华盛顿接触，是为了证明俄罗斯的分量太重，不容忽视。Russia “tried all of last year to establish the idea that you can do stuff bilaterally with the U.S. short of settling the war in Ukraine,” said Hanna Notte, the author of “We Shall Outlast Them,” a book about Russia’s wartime foreign policy.“俄罗斯去年全年都在试图确立一个想法：在不解决乌克兰战争的情况下，仍可与美国开展双边合作，”《我们将比他们坚持得更久》(We Shall Outlast Them)一书的作者汉娜·诺特说，该书讲述俄罗斯战时外交政策。“It wasn’t just the economic deals,” she added. “They also wanted to talk about the Middle East. They wanted to talk about the Arctic. They wanted to talk about nuclear arms control.”“这不仅仅是经济交易，”她补充说。“他们还想谈中东。他们想谈北极。他们想谈核军控。”Russia’s goal, she said, was to advance “this whole idea that you can compartmentalize the relationship with the United States and do stuff together even while you’re still prosecuting the war.”她说，俄罗斯的目标是推进“这样一种整体想法：你可以把与美国的关系分门别类地处理，在继续战争的同时，在某些领域开展合作”。周三，乌克兰基辅一栋公寓楼在俄罗斯空袭中受损。The Trump administration’s offering of carrots to end the war is likely to fail, Ms. Notte predicted.诺特预测，特朗普政府以胡萝卜策略结束战争的做法很可能失败。Sam Charap, a Russia analyst at the RAND Corporation, and other analysts noted that an irony of Russia’s rapprochement with Washington was that it may no longer be a silver bullet to a settlement of the war on Moscow’s terms.兰德公司的俄罗斯问题分析师萨姆·查拉普和其他分析人士指出，俄罗斯与华盛顿改善关系的一个讽刺之处在于，这种缓和可能不再是让战争按照莫斯科的条件得到解决的灵丹妙药。Europe has taken on a bigger role in providing Kyiv with economic and political support, and relations between Mr. Putin and many European leaders have completely broken down.欧洲在向基辅提供经济和政治支持方面发挥了更大作用，而普京与许多欧洲领导人的关系已完全破裂。“Winning the Americans isn’t the prize it once was,” said Jeremy Shapiro, research director at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “It was the whole game two years ago. Now it’s a much smaller piece.”“赢得美国人的支持已不再像过去那样重要，”欧洲对外关系委员会研究主任杰里米·夏皮罗说。“两年前这曾是整个局势的关键。现在它只是其中小得多的一部分。”The Kremlin is also aware that Mr. Trump could change tack again after the midterms, Mr. Shapiro said. Russian decision makers, he said, see the U.S. president as “very inconsistent” and feel little security about his approach to Russia.夏皮罗说，克里姆林宫也意识到，特朗普可能在中期选举后再次改变路线。他说，俄罗斯决策者认为这位美国总统“非常反复无常”，对他的对俄方针缺乏安全感。Ivan Nechepurenko自莫斯科对本文有报道贡献。Valerie Hopkins驻莫斯科，报道乌克兰战争和这场冲突正在如何改变俄罗斯、乌克兰、欧洲和美国。翻译：晋其角点击查看本文英文版。