LISA LERER, RUTH LGIELNIK2026年10月22日数据基于《纽约时报》/锡耶纳于10月12日至19日对全美3494名潜在选民开展的民调。 Jillian Vordick/The New York TimesPresident Trump’s approval rating hit a new low just a few weeks before the midterm elections, driven down by broad disapproval of his handling of the economy, the war in Iran and high gas prices, according to a new national poll from The New York Times and Siena University.据《纽约时报》与锡耶纳学院联合发布的最新全国民调，特朗普总统的施政满意度在距离中期选举仅数周之际跌至新低，主要拖累因素为选民普遍不认可其对经济、伊朗战争和高油价问题的处理。Just 36 percent of likely voters said that they approved of Mr. Trump’s performance, while 59 percent said that they disapproved. That is his lowest approval rating recorded in any Times/Siena poll. More than two-thirds of independent voters said that they disapproved of the way he has handled his job as president.仅36%的潜在选民认可特朗普的执政表现，59%表示不认可。这是他在《纽约时报》/锡耶纳民调中的最低纪录。超过三分之二的无党派选民不认可他的履职表现。Likely voters said that they preferred Democratic candidates over Republicans by 11 percentage points in their congressional districts in the final Times/Siena national poll before the midterm elections, a slight improvement for Democrats since last month. The metric is widely seen as a strong indicator of political momentum.在中期选举前《纽约时报》/锡耶纳的最后一项全国民调中，可能投票的选民表示在其国会选区更支持民主党候选人，领先共和党11个百分点，这一差距比上个月略有扩大。该指标被广泛视为衡量政治势头的重要风向标。The national political environment is bleak for Republicans. Americans broadly disapprove of economic conditions under the Trump administration, with three-quarters rating the economy as fair or poor. A majority of voters blame Mr. Trump for the decline: 69 percent disapprove of his handling of the cost of living, 65 percent disapprove of his handling of the war in Iran and nearly three-quarters disapprove of his handling of gas prices, which are above $4 a gallon.全国政治环境对共和党而言颇为黯淡。美国民众普遍不认可特朗普政府治下的经济状况，四分之三的人将经济评为“一般”或“差”。多数选民将经济下滑归咎于特朗普：69%不认可其对生活成本问题的处理，65%不认可其伊朗战争应对，近四分之三不认可其油价应对——目前油价已超过每加仑4美元。But Democrats still face serious challenges, particularly as they seek to win control of the Senate. To do so they are trying to flip seats in Republican-leaning states including Texas, Iowa, Alaska and Ohio, which Mr. Trump won by double digits in 2024. Other polls show that Democrats and Republicans are locked in tight races in several key Senate contests.但民主党仍面临严峻挑战，尤其是在争取参议院控制权方面。为此，民主党正试图在倾向共和党的州翻转席位，包括得克萨斯、艾奥瓦、阿拉斯加和俄亥俄——特朗普2024年在这些州均以两位数优势获胜。其他民调显示，两党在几场关键参议院选战中势均力敌。[Follow all of the latest polls heading into November’s elections.][关注11月选举前的所有最新民调。]Still, the deep economic frustration has even broken into the coalition that elected Mr. Trump to his second term. Over the past year, Democrats have improved their standing among men, young voters and Hispanic voters — winning back some voters in those groups who helped propel Mr. Trump to victory two years ago.然而，深重的经济挫败感甚至已波及将特朗普送入第二任期的选民联盟。过去一年，民主党在男性、年轻选民和西班牙裔选民中的支持率有所回升——赢回了部分两年前助推特朗普获胜的选民。Paul Gettings, a Republican who lost his job running a logistics company in June, said that he supported Mr. Trump in 2024 but plans to back Democrats this year. He cited frustration with high gas prices, the war in Iran and what he sees as harsh immigration enforcement in Simi Valley, Calif., where he lives.共和党人保罗·盖廷斯6月因所在物流公司裁员而失业。他表示自己在2024年支持了特朗普，但今年计划转投民主党。他列举的原因包括对高油价、伊朗战争以及加州西米谷严厉移民执法的不满。“I’m very disillusioned with the Republican Party and how they can continue to support Trump,” said Mr. Gettings, 62, who is unemployed. “He’s turned into a politician just like the rest of them and it’s a lot of empty promises.”“我对共和党很幻灭，他们怎么能继续支持特朗普，”62岁、目前失业的盖廷斯说。“他已经变成了一个和其他政客没有两样的人，尽是空头承诺。”Among all registered voters, including those who are less likely to vote, Mr. Trump’s approval rating was even worse, with 34 percent approving of his job performance. Mr. Trump built his 2016 and 2024 wins partly on the strength of his support among white voters without a college degree, but the poll found that group is about evenly split in its approval of his job, with 48 percent approving and 46 percent disapproving.在包括投票意愿较低的选民在内的所有登记选民中，特朗普的满意度更低，仅34%认可其执政表现。特朗普2016年和2024年的胜利部分得益于没有大学学历的白人选民的支持，但本次民调发现，该群体对其执政表现的态度大致持平：48%认可，46%不认可。[See all of the latest polls measuring President Trump’s approval rating.][查看所有衡量特朗普总统满意度的最新民调。]As views of Republicans have declined, public perceptions of Democrats have grown increasingly positive over the last two years on an array of measures.随着选民对共和党的看法转差，过去两年公众对民主党的评价在一系列指标上持续改善。数据基于《纽约时报》/锡耶纳于10月12日至19日对全美3494名潜在选民开展的民调。统计不包含未作答或回答“不知道”的受访者。A majority of likely voters now see the Democratic Party as the party of the working class — a shift from 2022, when voters gave the Republican Party the edge. Voters also see Democrats as more likely to keep their promises than Republicans, a striking reversal from two years ago, when Republicans held an advantage on that question.多数可能投票的选民如今将民主党视为工薪阶层的政党——这与2022年选民偏向共和党的情况形成反转。选民还认为民主党比共和党更可能信守承诺，这与两年前共和党在该问题上占优的局面相比是一次显著逆转。And majorities across nearly every demographic group now view Democrats as more understanding and able to fix the problems of average Americans.几乎所有人口群体中的多数人现在都认为，民主党更理解普通美国人，并能解决他们的问题。“The Republican Party is, if anything, causing more problems for people like me: being Latino, feeling the weight of that kind of prejudice that I think the Republican Party tends to kind of portray," said Vince Cordero, 25, an independent in Oak Lawn, Ill., who said he plans on voting for Democrats this year. “I also think the Democratic Party deserves an opportunity to see if they’re really up to snuff.”“要说的话，共和党反而在给像我这样的人制造更多问题：作为拉丁裔，感受到那种偏见的压力，我觉得共和党往往在助长这种偏见，”25岁的文斯·科尔德罗说，他是伊利诺伊州奥克朗的无党派人士，表示今年计划投票给民主党。“我也认为应该给民主党一个机会，看看他们是否真的够格。”By a 15-point margin, more voters trust the Democratic Party over the Republican Party to tackle the cost of living, the single most important issue to voters. The party holds an 8-point advantage on the economy, an area that has historically been a strength for Mr. Trump. Democrats have also grown their lead since September on who voters trust to handle foreign wars and artificial intelligence.在生活成本这一选民最关心的议题上，更多选民信任民主党而非共和党，前者领先15个百分点。在经济议题上民主党也领先八个百分点，而这一领域历来是特朗普的强项。自9月以来，民主党在选民信任谁处理对外战争和人工智能方面的优势也有所扩大。数据基于《纽约时报》/锡耶纳于10月12日至19日对全美3494名潜在选民开展的民调。But even amid his declining numbers, Mr. Trump has held on to strong support from his base. The vast majority of Republicans, 82 percent, still approve of his job performance and his signature policies, including the Iran war and tariffs.但即便民调数字下滑，特朗普仍牢牢掌握基本盘的支持。高达82%的绝大多数共和党人仍然认可他的执政表现及其标志性政策，包括伊朗战争和关税。“People are upset, ‘Oh, Trump put these tariffs on people and now our food costs go up,’” said Sheila Murdock, a retired nurse from Shelley, Idaho, who has already voted absentee for Republicans this year. “Well, yes, but if you look at the bigger picture and what it eventually does, it makes things better.”“人们很不满，‘哦，特朗普加征了这些关税，现在食品价格涨了，’”爱达荷州谢利的退休护士希拉·默多克说，她今年已经为共和党人投了缺席票。“是的，但如果你看大局以及最终的效果，它会让事情变得更好。”The poll also found immigration re-emerging as a defining concern for voters. Ten percent of voters now say it is their top issue this fall, up from 6 percent in September. Among Republicans, almost 20 percent now say it is their top priority — nearly double the percentage who said the same last month.民调还发现，移民问题重新成为选民的关键关切。10%的选民现在将其列为今年秋天的首要问题，高于9月的6%。共和党人中近20%持此看法——几乎是上个月的两倍。While Democrats still hold an edge over Republicans in who voters trust to handle immigration — which had long been a Republican strength — that advantage has shrunk since September. Now, 46 percent of voters say they trust Republicans on immigration, 50 percent say the same of Democrats.尽管民主党在移民问题上仍比共和党更受选民信任——这长期以来是共和党的强项——但这一优势自9月以来已经收窄。目前46%的选民在移民问题上信任共和党，50%信任民主党。Still, the survey indicates that even as Democratic candidates gain support, there is lingering discontent with their party. Just 28 percent of voters said they are satisfied with the Democratic Party, eight points lower than the share who express satisfaction with the Republican Party.然而，调查表明，即便民主党候选人获得更多支持，选民对该党仍存在不满。仅28%的选民对民主党表示满意，比对共和党的满意度低八个百分点。Much of the unhappiness stems from Democratic voters themselves. Forty-three percent of Democrats said they are unsatisfied with their party, compared to just 16 percent of Republicans who said the same about the G.O.P.不满主要来自民主党选民自身。43%的民主党人对本党不满意，而共和党人中仅16%对本党不满。Lisa Lerer是时报美国政治记者，常驻纽约。她报道美国政治已有20多年。Ruth Igielnik是时报投票新闻编辑，对民意调查进行报道和分析。翻译：经雷点击查看本文英文版。