XAUUSD Week Oct 26-30: SELL 4055-4070, BUY 3942-3960GoldOANDA:XAUUSDToan_AlphaWEEKLY PLAN | XAUUSD 1. Market structure Gold closed the week of Oct 19–23 at 3995.81 (O 4167.55 | H 4190.42 | L 3975.65, -4.07%). Price broke down out of the two-week 4066–4228 range and closed the week below 4000. - W1: the lower-high sequence 4891.54 (Apr 13) – 4773.58 (May 11) – 4697.10 (week of Aug 24) remains intact. The Oct 19 weekly candle is a strong bearish candle: a 172-point body on a 215-point range (10-week average 183), closing near its low. Price broke the 4066–4074 base that long lower wicks had defended for two weeks, and also closed below the 4019–4024 cluster of weekly lows (June–August). Sellers are clearly in control. - D1: lower highs 4227.53 (Oct 2) – 4217.40 (Oct 12) – 4190.42 (Oct 19). The Oct 22 candle had a 115-point bearish body (average daily range about 71), broke the range low 4066.54 and closed at 4024.51. Oct 23 printed a new low at 3975.65 and closed at 3995.81, with no reversal signal yet. - H4: after breaking 4066, price pulled back into the former support 4016–4035 and was rejected several times on Oct 23 (highs 4032.79, 4028.56, 4032.59, 4034.08), then dropped to 3975.65. The last H4 candle of Oct 23 left a lower wick of about 25 points, showing some short-term buying around 3975–3987. Weekly view: bearish. Prefer SELL on a pullback into the broken range low. BUY only at the deeper weekly support and only with confirmation. 2. Key price zones Resistance: 4103–4120: D1 lows 4103.44, 4103.52 and H4 lows 4105.02–4113.38 on Oct 20–22. 4055–4074: former range lows 4066.54 (Oct 7) and 4073.54 (Oct 14), H1 lows 4054.18 and 4057.55 on Oct 22. 4016–4035: former weekly lows 4019.24 – 4021.82 – 4023.87, now resistance with H4 highs 4028–4034 on Oct 23. Support: 3975–3987: low 3975.65 (Oct 23), H1 low 3986.73 and weekly low 3982.63 (week of Jul 20). 3942–3960: weekly lows 3942.10 (week of Jun 29), 3959.08 (week of Jun 22) and 3959.80 (week of Jul 13). 3886–3929: weekly lows 3928.68 (week of Nov 3, 2025) and 3886.46 (week of Oct 27, 2025). 3. Main trade scenarios – SELL the pullback, BUY weekly support Scenario 1: SELL at 4055–4070 - Confluence: on W1 the 4066–4074 base has just broken; on D1 it is the breakdown point of the Oct 22 bearish candle; on H1 the 4054–4058 lows came before the next leg down. Wait for a retest from below and a rejection. - Confirmation: Pin Bar or bearish Engulfing on H4, or an H4 candle closing back down after tagging the zone. - Reference plan: Entry: 4055–4070 Stop Loss: 4092 TP1: 4000 | TP2: 3962 | TP3: 3945 R:R: 2.1 / 3.4 / 4.0 - No SELL if D1 closes above 4092. Scenario 2: BUY at 3942–3960 - Confluence: on W1 three weekly lows at 3942–3960 held price in June–July; it is the nearest weekly support below the 3975.65 low. BUY only if price rejects this zone, never catch a falling knife. - Confirmation: H4/D1 long lower wick or bullish Engulfing, with price closing back above 3960. - Reference plan: Entry: 3942–3960 Stop Loss: 3922 TP1: 4000 | TP2: 4022 | TP3: 4055 R:R: 1.7 / 2.4 / 3.6 - No BUY if D1 closes below 3922. Between the two zones (3975–4035), use the daily plans, no weekly entries. 4. Alternative scenario – break of 3942 support - A D1 close below 3922 breaks the 3942–3960 weekly lows and opens the way to 3886–3929. Wait for a retest of 3942–3960 from below and a rejection to SELL, targets 3929 then 3886–3890. - Do not chase after a long bearish candle, wait for the retest. 5. Invalidation and opposite scenario - A D1 close above 4092 puts price back inside the old range, turns the 4066 break into a false break, and cancels the SELL view. - In that case wait for a successful retest of 4066–4074 to BUY, targets 4103–4120 then 4140–4155. 6. Conclusion - Bias for Oct 26–30: bearish. SELL 4055–4070 on a pullback into the old range low, BUY 3942–3960 only with confirmation at weekly support. - News calendar (New York time, ET): Mon Oct 26 no major US data; Tue Oct 27 8:30 US durable goods orders, 10:00 Conference Board consumer confidence; Wed Oct 28 8:30 US trade balance, 14:00 FOMC rate decision, 14:30 Fed Chair press conference; Thu Oct 29 8:30 US Q3 advance GDP and September PCE; Fri Oct 30 8:30 US Q3 Employment Cost Index. - Volatility can be very high around the FOMC decision, check the spread before placing orders. Wait for price action confirmation at the zones, do not trade between them. Note: This is a personal technical analysis view, not investment advice. Entry, SL and TP zones are for reference only. Traders should assess their own risk, manage their capital and wait for confirmation before making decisions.