Gold Strategy Report for Monday, October 25:GoldOANDA:XAUUSDKa_GOLDGold Strategy Report for Monday, October 25: Although the price of gold has reclaimed the 4000 level, the bearish structure remains unchanged. On the 2-hour chart: Gold is currently in a "pullback confirmation" phase following a breakdown. This signifies a fundamental shift in the technical structure: the 4070–4080 range, previously acting as support, has now turned into resistance. The 3915 level, indicated by the white arrow on the chart, serves as the next key reference point. Unless gold can decisively climb back above 4080 in the near term, this should be viewed merely as a "retest" by the bears, rather than a reversal of the trend. The Federal Reserve’s path toward "slowing the pace of rate hikes" has become increasingly clear. With Warsh maintaining a deliberately vague stance in Bangkok, the market-implied probability of a rate hike in October has dropped to just 10%. However, a crucial point remains: the market still anticipates a potential rate hike in December. This leaves gold in a position of "short-term relief, but medium-term pressure." Recent PMI data further reinforces this outlook. The preliminary U.S. manufacturing PMI for October, released on Friday, came in at 56.0—exceeding expectations and reaching a 53-month high. Meanwhile, the services PMI hit 57.9, in line with expectations, though it also revealed the fastest growth in price pressures in over four years. Economic resilience, combined with persistent price pressures, further limits the scope for a rebound in gold. Technical Outlook: For this Monday, focus should be placed on the 3950–3970 range. Key levels to the downside: 3950–3970: This is the first significant support zone below the 20-period moving average (SMA20) and sits near the June low of 3942.7. 3942.7: A low from 2026. A decisive break below this level would open the door for further declines toward the 3915–3900 range (or even lower). Upside Resistance: 4000–4010: This serves as both a psychological level and the closing price from last weekend; a return to this zone would be the first step toward market stabilization. 4070–4080: Previously the lower boundary of the trading range—following the breakdown below this level, it has now shifted into a zone of strong resistance. Focus on the support level at 4000; look toward 4150 for upside resistance. Monday Trading Framework Core Assessment: Avoid blindly chasing short positions below 4000. A rebound into the 4050–4080 range would present a more favorable opportunity to go short. On Monday, the market may look to establish a clear direction within the 3950–4050 range. With the breakdown of the 4070–4080 range and the breach of the 4000 level, a bearish structure is now firmly established. The key for Monday is whether the 3950–3970 area can provide effective support during the initial retest of the lows: If support holds, watch for a potential rebound toward 4030–4050; if support fails, keep an eye on key levels at 3950, 3915, and 3900. Should a rebound encounter resistance within the 4050–4080 zone, it would serve as an ideal entry point to go short in line with the prevailing trend.