ETHUSDT | H1 | TESTING THE CLOUD BOTTOM AT LOW VOLATILITYEthereum / USDTMEXC:ETHUSDTTerminator_Crypto_Analyst🎯 TP1: $2,455.56 (+0.57%) │ TP2: $2,441.46 (+1.14%) 🛑 SL: $2,495.27 (-1.04%) │ R/R: 1 : 1.1 ⚠️ SL placed beyond the nearest candle wicks to reduce the risk of accidental stop-out FUNDAMENTAL BACKGROUND Ethereum maintains moderate fundamental support due to news about the Glamsterdam testnet preparation (October 6) and ongoing institutional integrations, including the launch of spot ETH trading for institutions in the UAE. However, signs of cooling emerged at the end of the week through outflows from spot ETH-ETFs, which slowed buying. In the absence of a fresh project catalyst, Ethereum moves primarily in line with the general crypto market and technical levels — against this backdrop, the asset found itself under the Ichimoku cloud with sellers dominating. TECHNICAL PICTURE The price has settled below the Ichimoku cloud and below the moving lines Tenkan ($2,487.73) and Kijun ($2,497.36), indicating selling pressure. The cloud rays Senkou A ($2,492.55) and Senkou B ($2,491.86) form dense resistance very close to the current price — a break above would signal a change in tone, but for now the market is testing it from below. CCI at -178.3 is in the extreme oversold zone, which technically allows for a bounce, but in the absence of a strong bullish catalyst, this is more a signal of maintaining a bearish bias. VWMP at $2,492.8 and ATR of only 16.01 points confirm low volatility ahead of the Fed decision on 09/16/2026. PROBABILITY MODEL The market is in a sideways trend with a bullish model bias (current mode: bullish), but this bias is nominal: the probability of continued growth is only 39% versus 33% for sideways and 27% for a bearish pullback. In the field of low ADX (14.9) and oversold CCI, a short-term bounce is possible, but sellers maintain control as long as the price is below $2,490 — this is a zone of both demand and resistance. DIRECTION 🔴 SELL — the price has settled below the Ichimoku cloud with sellers having the advantage according to ADX and maintains a negative attitude towards the Tenkan/Kijun lines.