The NAB survey is the most important release of this batch, and the profitability collapse is the number worth watching most closely given the survey's own note that it tends to lead broader labour market conditions, a signal that would matter more to the RBA than the confidence or conditions headline reads on their own. That creates some tension in the AUD story: cost pressures and elevated inflation are still pushing swap pricing toward a fourth RBA hike this month, currently near 69%, even as the underlying business survey points to slowing growth and margin compression that would normally argue for caution. The ASX's slide below 9,000 and the sharp drop in consumer sentiment reinforce that same theme of a domestic economy losing momentum under the weight of both rates and energy-driven inflation. For NZD, the RBNZ comment suggesting the OCR may already sit in neutral territory is a modestly dovish repricing input, tempering expectations for further tightening and adding to the softer tone across both currencies today, though neither move looks large enough yet to represent a decisive shift.---China data still to come:Preview: China trade data due today, a beat could firm up AUD as a demand proxy trade---The AUD is caught between a central bank leaning toward another hike and a business survey that's starting to look genuinely worried, while the NZD just got a small neutral-rate nudge lower.Summary:NAB business conditions index fell five points to -1 in August, its first move into negative territory since the pandemic, while business confidence slipped to -8, well below the long-run average of +5Profitability sank 10 points and sales fell 5 points to post-COVID lows, with NAB flagging the profitability decline as worth watching given its leading relationship with labour market conditionsCost pressures remained elevated, with fuel costs rising again as Middle East tensions intensified, and the gap between purchase costs and product prices at historically high levelsThe ASX 200 fell 0.4% to 8,979.70, dropping below the 9,000 level, dragged by financials and healthcare, with Commonwealth Bank down 1% and roughly 8% lower since flagging weaker mortgage volume growth last monthSwaps imply a 68.8% probability of an RBA rate hike this month, which would be its fourth of the year, as HSBC forecasts a 13% national fall in house prices by mid-2027Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment fell 5.2% to 84.4 in September, reversing most of August's gain, with family finances down 9.2% and mortgage-holder sentiment down 13%RBNZ Monetary Policy Committee member Prasanna Gai said it's plausible the key rate is already in the neutral zone, a comment that has weighed modestly on the NZDThe Australian and New Zealand dollars are both trading a touch softer, with the most significant input by far coming from National Australia Bank's August business survey, which showed conditions falling to a six-year low. NAB's business conditions index dropped five points to -1, the first move into negative territory since the pandemic struck in 2020, while its confidence index slipped a point to -8, well below the long-run average of +5. The deterioration was broad-based across industries, with profitability sinking 10 points and sales down 5 points to reach post-COVID lows. NAB said the decline in profitability bears watching given its leading relationship with broader labour market conditions, and characterised the overall signal from the survey as slowing growth against a backdrop of persistent cost and price pressures, with fuel costs rising again in August as Middle East tensions intensified.That combination of slowing growth and sticky inflation is creating a genuine tension in the outlook. Swaps currently imply a 68.8% probability the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise its cash rate this month, which would mark a fourth hike this year, even as the NAB survey points toward an economy that is losing momentum. Australian equities reflected some of that unease, with the ASX 200 falling 0.4% to 8,979.70, dropping below the 9,000 level as financials and healthcare stocks led the decline, and Commonwealth Bank falling another 1% to extend an roughly 8% slide since flagging weaker mortgage volume growth in its results last month. HSBC has forecast a 13% national decline in Australian house prices by mid-2027 as property tax changes and higher rates weigh on demand.Consumer sentiment added to the soft tone, with the Westpac-Melbourne Institute index sliding 5.2% to 84.4 in September, reversing almost all of August's gain and sitting nearly 12% below year-ago levels. Westpac's Matthew Hassan said fuel prices and interest rates were again the main drivers, also likely adding to unease about weakening housing markets. Family finances fell a steep 9.2%, and sentiment among mortgage holders dropped 13%, compared with a much smaller 0.6% decline for renters.Across the Tasman, NZD found a modest headwind of its own after RBNZ Monetary Policy Committee member Prasanna Gai said it's plausible the central bank's key rate is already sitting in neutral territory, a comment that tempers expectations for further tightening and has weighed slightly on the currency. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.