USD/JPY Under Pressure, Maintaining Bearish MomentumUSD/JPYOANDA:USDJPYNouzTraderUSD/JPY USDJPY continued its sharp downward trend for the second consecutive day—marking its fourth day of decline in the last five sessions—and fell to the 153.50 range (its lowest level since February 18) during Tuesday's Asian session. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Japanese Macro Factors: Real Wage Surge (2.4%), GDP Revision (1.4%), & Risk of a BoJ "Jumbo" Rate Hike The Japanese Yen (JPY) is experiencing its strongest appreciation, supported by key domestic fundamentals: - ⚡Surge in Japanese Real Wages (2.4% YoY): A report from Japan's Ministry of Labor showed real wages rose 2.4% year-on-year in July—the largest increase since May 2021 and the seventh consecutive month of growth. Wage inflation exceeding 2% provides a solid foundation for a positive wage-price spiral. - ⚡Upward Revision of Q2 GDP (1.4% Annualized): The Cabinet Office revised Japan's economic growth for the April–June period to 1.4% (annualized) from the initial estimate of 1.1%, confirming the resilience of domestic demand. - ⚡Probability of a BoJ "Jumbo" Rate Hike (September 17–18): Markets have fully priced in a 25-basis-point (bps) benchmark rate hike at next week's BoJ meeting, with some institutional analysts beginning to factor in the risk of a "jumbo" hike (+50 bps) to anchor inflation expectations; this is compounded by lingering speculation regarding Ministry of Finance (MoF) forex intervention (rate checks). --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Price Action Analysis (H4 Timeframe) The H4 structure has undergone an extreme shift toward a "Strong Bearish Expansion." The vertical drop from the consolidation peak area (~160.000) aggressively broke a series of structural "Higher Lows" and three key "green line" support levels: 156.696, 155.271, and most recently, 154.090 (representing a bearish Break of Structure / BOS). At the 153.514 price level, the most recent H4 candle displays intense selling momentum (a bearish Marubozu) with no significant bullish rejection. The price decline is targeting the base of the historical Major Demand Zone in the 152.800 – 153.000 range. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Key Zones: - ⚡Resistance / Supply Zone (SBR): The 154.090 green line range (nearest Support-Turned-Resistance/SBR area) and the 155.271 green line range (upper major SBR barrier). - ⚡Support / Demand Zone: The 152.800 – 153.000 range (the lower floor of the Major Demand Zone toward which the price is heading). --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Order Flow / Volume Profile (VPVR) Analysis The Volume Profile histogram on the right side of the chart provides a highly precise map of institutional liquidity: - ⚡High Volume Node (HVN) / Upper Point of Control: Major concentrations of volume were left far behind in the 159.000 – 159.500 and 156.000 – 156.500 ranges. Institutional sellers are in full control of the market through the release of large-scale sell orders (aggressive market sell orders). - ⚡Low Volume Node (LVN) / Volume Vacuum Area: The price range between 153.500 and 154.000 shows a lack of volume distribution (volume vacuum) resulting from an unrelenting vertical drop. As the price moves through this thin LVN area, the decline has the potential to continue freely until it hits the next area of heavy volume around the 152.800 psychological level. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Elliott Wave Analysis Mapping the wave cycle movements on the H4 timeframe: - ⚡Wave Structure: The gradual upward rally within the channel, culminating at a peak of ~160.400, is calculated as the completion of the primary Wave 5. The massive vertical drop following that peak confirms the onset of a large-scale A-B-C corrective cycle (or a bearish impulsive Wave 3/C). - ⚡Current Status: The sharp decline—breaking through the 154.090 level toward 153.514—is currently within the peak expansion phase of a highly aggressive Sub-Wave C (or micro Wave 3). - ⚡Projection: Price action is projected to retain enough impulsive downward momentum to complete the expansion target toward the 152.800 demand floor, before this bearish cycle enters a phase of oversold exhaustion and undergoes a corrective pullback.