MARK LANDLER2026年9月8日周日投票结束后，德国极右翼政党德国选择党首席候选人乌尔里希·西格蒙德（中）在庆祝。 Matthias Schrader/Associated PressWhen a far-right party won a landslide victory on Sunday in a small state in eastern Germany, its reverberations could be felt from Downing Street in London to the Élysée Palace in Paris. Rarely has the result of a regional election been viewed with such portent for the fate of democracy in Europe.周日，当一个极右翼政党在德国东部一个小州赢得压倒性胜利时，其冲击波从伦敦唐宁街一直回荡到巴黎爱丽舍宫。一次地方选举的结果很少会被如此视为关乎欧洲民主命运的预兆。This wasn’t just any European country; it was Germany, a country that has relentlessly isolated far-right political parties since the calamity of Nazism. And it wasn’t just a strange outlier, but rather the latest step in a steady, decade-long march that has brought the far right ever closer to the fulcrum of power in Europe.这不是普通欧洲国家，而是德国——一个自纳粹主义浩劫以来一直不遗余力孤立极右翼政党的国家。这也不是一次反常的例外，而是极右翼在过去十年中稳步推进、日益接近欧洲权力中心的最新一步。With elections scheduled across Europe next year, the striking success of the party, Alternative for Germany, could be a harbinger of further far-right victories, according to analysts, as well as a template for how they can be engineered. Its populist, anti-immigrant message echoes those of nationalist leaders in Britain, France, Italy and Spain, all countries where voters harbor many of the same grievances as those in Germany.明年欧洲各国将相继举行选举，分析人士表示，德国选择党此次引人注目的成功可能预示着极右翼将取得更多胜利，并为此提供了可资借鉴的范本。该党的民粹主义、反移民论调与英国、法国、意大利和西班牙的民族主义领导人如出一辙，这些国家的选民有许多与德国选民同样的不满。French voters will elect a new president next spring. An election is due in Spain by August, and in Italy by the end of next year. Far-right candidates are surging in all of them, threatening incumbents blamed for systemic problems with their countries’ economies.法国选民将于明年春天选出新总统。西班牙最晚将于8月举行选举，意大利则是在明年年底。极右翼候选人在所有这些国家都迅猛崛起，对因本国经济出现系统性问题而备受诟病的现任领导人构成威胁。“Developed Europe is going through a version of sophisticated state failure,” said Mujtaba Rahman, an analyst who specializes in Europe at Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy. “Governments are unable to address cost-of-living concerns. They are not able to deliver for their voters.”政治风险咨询公司欧亚集团专门研究欧洲事务的分析师穆杰塔巴·拉赫曼表示：“发达欧洲正在经历某种复杂的国家失灵。政府无法解决生活成本问题，无法回应选民的诉求。”周日，德国东部，一块屏幕上显示着德国选择党领先的选情。In Germany, rising prices and high unemployment helped win the far-right party, known by its German initials, AfD, more than twice the number of votes as Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s center-right incumbent party.在德国，物价上涨和高失业率帮助这个以其德语缩写AfD闻名的极右翼政党赢得了比现任总理默茨领导的中右翼执政党多出一倍以上的选票。The result laid bare a divide between Europeans who see the far right as a threat to democracy, and a growing number who see it as democracy’s savior. The former warn that the far right will dismantle checks and balances, while treating minorities as second-class citizens. The latter see it as a bulwark against an out-of-touch elite that has eroded their national identity and endangered their livelihoods.这一结果清楚地揭示出欧洲人的分歧：一些人将极右翼视为对民主的威胁，越来越多的人则将其视为民主的救星。前者警告说，极右翼将拆除制衡机制，同时将少数群体视为二等公民；后者则将其视为抵御脱离实际的精英阶层的堡垒，这些精英侵蚀了他们的民族身份认同并危及了他们的生计。Because the AfD appeared to fall just short of an outright majority, according to near-final results, it may not end up governing Saxony-Anhalt, the state where the election was held. Rival parties have vowed that they would not form a coalition government with the AfD, whose leaders have used Nazi slogans and minimized the Holocaust. The AfD is designated as a “suspected” extremist group by German intelligence, partly because the group portrays Germans of immigrant backgrounds as second-class citizens.根据接近完成的计票结果，由于AfD似乎仅以微弱差距未能获得绝对多数，因此最终可能无法在选举所在的萨克森-安哈尔特州执政。竞争对手政党誓言不会与AfD组成联合政府，AfD的领导人曾使用纳粹口号并淡化大屠杀。德国情报机构将其列为“疑似”极端主义组织，部分原因是该党将移民背景的德国人描绘成二等公民。Still, the result could hobble Mr. Merz if members of his party blame him for the loss, at a time when Germany’s leadership in Europe was already faltering. Mr. Merz’s standing has deteriorated so badly that political analysts talk openly of his ouster, a once-far-fetched scenario in German politics.不过，这一结果仍可能让默茨陷入困境——如果他的党内成员将这次失利归咎于他，尤其是德国在欧洲的领导地位本已日渐式微之际。默茨的政治地位已经严重恶化，以至于政治分析人士开始公开讨论他下台的可能性，这在德国政坛曾经几乎是难以想像的。“It’s a big concern in Europe,” said Mr. Rahman, who previously worked for the European Union’s civil service. “A weak Germany, with a chancellor who is coming unstuck and being forced to deal with domestic problems, is bad and will ultimately subtract from Europe’s ability to confront its challenges.”“这令欧洲深感忧虑，”曾任职于欧盟公务员体系的拉赫曼表示。“一个虚弱的德国，一个陷入困境、被迫处理国内问题的总理，这对欧洲是坏事，最终将削弱欧洲应对挑战的能力。”Worries among centrists about France, where President Emmanuel Macron will step down next spring, are no less acute. Marine Le Pen, the candidate of France’s main far-right party, the National Rally, holds a commanding lead in first-round polls, and has even finished first in recent second-round matchups. That puts her closer to power than at any time in her 14 years of seeking the presidency.中间派对法国的担忧也同样紧迫。法国总统马克龙将于明年春天卸任。法国主要的极右翼政党国民联盟的候选人玛丽娜·勒庞在首轮民调中遥遥领先，甚至在最近的第二轮模拟对决中也排名第一。在14年来寻求总统之位的过程中，如今她比任何时候都更接近权力中心。法国的一座前矿业小镇上，极右翼政党领袖玛丽娜·勒庞的支持者，摄于去年。A far-right government in Paris, Mr. Rahman said, would destabilize the European Union in a way that no other national election has, given France’s size, nuclear arsenal and founding role in the European project. It might also bring an end to the so-called cordon sanitaire, under which mainstream parties in France, as in Germany, have refused to enter governing coalitions with the far right.拉赫曼表示，鉴于法国的体量、核武库及其在欧洲一体化中的创始角色，一个极右翼政府出现在巴黎对欧盟的破坏力将是其他任何国家选举都无法比拟的。这还可能终结所谓的“警戒线”(cordon sanitaire)——法国和德国的主流政党一直拒绝与极右翼组成执政联盟。“In both countries, the antifascist front that had prevailed since the end of the Second World War seems on the verge of collapse,” said Philippe Marlière, a professor of French and European politics at University College London.伦敦大学学院法国和欧洲政治学教授菲利普·马里耶尔表示：“在这两个国家，自二战结束以来一直占主导地位的反法西斯阵线似乎处于崩溃的边缘。”In Spain, analysts said the far-right Vox Party could elbow its way into the next coalition government, with the current Socialist-led government tarnished by corruption scandals and an immigration crisis. In Britain, the governing Labour Party ousted its unpopular prime minister, Keir Starmer, in July to try to regain traction against a fast-rising far-right party, Reform U.K.在西班牙，分析人士称，极右翼的呼声党可能挤入下一届联合政府——目前由工人社会党领导的政府因腐败丑闻和移民危机而蒙尘。在英国，执政的工党于7月罢免了不受欢迎的首相斯塔默，试图重新站稳脚跟，以对抗快速崛起的极右翼政党英国改革党。Still, the rise of the far right is not inexorable. Reform’s success has been rudely interrupted by a series of financial scandals involving its firebrand leader, Nigel Farage. That has given the Labour government, under a new prime minister, Andy Burnham, some unexpected breathing room.尽管如此，极右翼的崛起并非不可阻挡。英国改革党的势头已被一系列涉及其煽动性领袖奈杰尔·法拉奇的金融丑闻狠狠打断。这给了新任首相安迪·伯纳姆领导的工党政府一些意想不到的喘息空间。In April, the far-right leader of Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orban, was swept out of power after 16 years, a casualty of widespread perceptions that his government was corrupt, inattentive to the economy, and had picked needless battles with the European Union. The defeat of his Fidesz party gave hope to mainstream politicians that the far right, too, is vulnerable.今年4月，匈牙利极右翼领导人、总理欧尔班·维克托在执政16年后被赶下台，导致他下台的一个重要原因，是公众普遍认为他的政府腐败、对经济问题漠不关心，而且还与欧盟进行了许多不必要的对抗。他的青民盟败选给了主流政治家希望，即极右翼同样并非不可撼动。上月，西班牙极右翼政党呼声党领导人圣地亚哥·阿瓦斯卡尔在休达举行的一场新闻发布会上。 Finbarr O'Reilly for The New York TimesThe extent to which those mainstream politicians “need to worry” about the AfD’s success, said Timothy Bale, a professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London, “is going to depend on whether, if it ends up in office, it behaves relatively normally, and whether or not it’s able to run things competently.”伦敦玛丽女王大学政治学教授蒂莫西·贝尔表示，主流政治人物对AfD成功的“担忧程度将取决于，如果它最终上台是否会表现得相对正常，以及它是否有能力胜任治理”。Italy’s prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, whose populist party has neofascist roots, offers a playbook to other like-minded leaders. Having modulated her tone on issues like Ukraine and the European Union, she recently celebrated her government’s becoming the longest continuously serving in the history of the Italian Republic.意大利总理梅洛尼的民粹主义政党有新法西斯主义渊源，她为其他立场相近的领导人提供了行动范本。在乌克兰和欧盟等问题上调整了语气后，她最近庆祝自己的政府成为意大利共和国历史上连续执政时间最长的政府。Ms. Meloni is in a decent position to extend that run when she faces voters next summer. But the rising profile of a rival even further to her right, Roberto Vannacci, has led her to harden her positions on issues like immigration. Ms. Meloni heaped criticism on Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, after a sudden influx of migrants from Morocco into a Spanish territory in late July.梅洛尼在明年夏天面对选民时处于有利位置，有望延长这一任期。但比她更右翼的竞争对手罗伯托·范纳奇日益上涨的人气促使她在移民等问题上立场趋于强硬。7月下旬，在摩洛哥移民突然涌入西班牙领土后，梅洛尼对西班牙首相桑切斯大加抨击。Mr. Farage risks being similarly outflanked in Britain. Rupert Lowe, a disaffected member of his party, defected to start an even more right-wing group that is siphoning votes from Mr. Farage. Given that competition, and the proliferating questions about Reform’s finances, Professor Bale said it was difficult to see how Mr. Farage could cobble together enough votes to form a government.法拉奇在英国面临类似的风险。他所在政党一名心怀不满的成员鲁珀特·洛脱离该党，组建了一个更右翼的团体，正在分流法拉奇的选票。考虑到这种竞争，以及关于英国改革党财务状况层出不穷的质疑，贝尔教授表示，很难看出法拉奇要如何拼凑出足够的选票来组建政府。In France, Ms. Le Pen’s path to power is more plausible. Her poll numbers are more than double those of the leading centrist, Edouard Philippe, or the leading far-left candidate, Jean-Luc Mélenchon.在法国，勒庞上台的可能性更大。她的民调支持率是中间派阵营中领先的爱德华·菲利普或极左翼阵营中领先的让-吕克·梅朗雄的两倍多。周六，英国改革党在英格兰伯明翰举行党大会。The big question in France is whether Mr. Philippe or anyone else will be able to gather enough support from the center right and left to emerge as the consensus mainstream candidate. In a second round of voting, analysts said, such a candidate would stand a chance of beating Ms. Le Pen.法国的最大悬念是，菲利普或其他任何人能否从中间偏右和偏左阵营中争取到足够的支持，成为主流共识候选人。分析人士称，在第二轮投票中，这样的候选人仍有机会击败勒庞。But if France’s center remains fractured, as it is now, that would give Mr. Mélenchon a shot at making the second round, likely facing off against Ms. Le Pen. In that scenario — one that France’s political establishment views as a nightmare — Ms. Le Pen would be the odds-on victor.但如果法国的中间派继续保持目前的四分五裂状态，那么梅朗雄就有机会进入第二轮，很可能与勒庞对决。在这种情况下——法国政治建制派视之为噩梦，勒庞将是大热门赢家。Like other far-right leaders in Europe, Ms. Le Pen has kept her distance from President Trump. But she and other populist candidates could be buffeted by him anyway, according to analysts. Mr. Trump remains deeply unpopular in Europe and is fast losing popularity in the United States as well.与欧洲其他极右翼领导人一样，勒庞与特朗普总统保持着距离。但分析人士称，她和其他民粹主义候选人仍可能受到他的波及。特朗普在欧洲仍然极不受欢迎，在美国的支持率也在迅速下滑。The lesson that Europe’s beleaguered centrists hope voters will take from America’s turmoil, Mr. Rahman said, is that “if you experiment with non-mainstream parties, you risk making mistakes.”拉赫曼表示，欧洲受困的中间派希望选民从美国的动荡中吸取的教训是：“如果你想尝试非主流政党，你就有犯错的风险。”Mark Landler是时报巴黎分社社长，报道法国以及美国在欧洲和中东的外交政策。他从事新闻工作已超过30年。翻译：杜然点击查看本文英文版。