Financial markets are notoriously prone to mistaking a fundamental institutional shift for a temporary liquidity crisis. The futurist Roy Amara is often credited with the observation that people tend to overestimate the short-term effect of a transformation while underestimating its long-term impact. China’s real-estate sector is furnishing a textbook case of an analogous dynamic.On August 28, Chinese housing authorities and financial regulators announced a package to overhaul the commercial...