MSTR: Elliott Wave roadmap and the 144.92 recovery testStrategy Inc Class ABATS:MSTRpricewerkMSTR is testing whether its rebound from the June low can develop into a more durable recovery. The first checkpoint is a daily close above 144.92 USD followed by holding that level. Until then, the latest advance can still be corrective. This is a neutral daily-chart roadmap, not a confirmed bullish impulse call. The chart uses NASDAQ MSTR, the displayed Cboe One feed, and USD. The latest completed session reviewed is September 10, 2026, with a close of 128.56. This analysis is dated September 11; premarket quotations are separate. The larger Elliott context The study begins at 9.00 on March 19, 2020. The working Cycle I count reaches 131.50 on February 9, 2021, with Primary subdivisions shown. A provisional complex W–X–Y correction then reaches 13.26 on December 30, 2022, labeled Cycle II. From that low, the advance to 543.00 on November 21, 2024 is treated as candidate Primary 1 within a developing Cycle III. Its Intermediate 1–5 anchors include 47.51, 30.71, 200.00 and 101.00 before the final high. The decline to 81.81 on June 26, 2026 is candidate Primary 2. The question mark matters: the June bottom remains unconfirmed. There is a structural reason for this hierarchy. The 2026 low lies below the 2021 high. A simple conventional Cycle I–II–III–IV interpretation would therefore introduce first/fourth-wave overlap. The proposed hierarchy avoids that particular conflict, but it still needs valid internal subdivisions and confirmation from subsequent price action. What remains unresolved The chart connects the major historical sections and carries the latest movement forward. The decline from 543 is provisionally labeled A–B–C, with A at 231.51, B at 457.22 and candidate C at 81.81. Selected Minor detail is included within this correction. The rebound is provisionally organized as A–B–C through 105.50, 91.67 and 144.92, followed by the developing September pullback. Its overlapping swings do not yet establish a new bullish impulse. This is not an exhaustive validation of every internal wave. The 2021–2022 complex structure, smaller subdivisions of the first advance and the 2024 fifth-wave internals remain open. Key prices were checked in the data window; some secondary drawing anchors are visual estimates. The labels are a working interpretation rather than proof that the correction has ended. The decision framework A daily close above 144.92, followed by a successful hold or retest, would strengthen the recovery case. A brief breakout followed by rejection would weaken it. The next important obstacle is the May high at 197.00; higher recovery zones require reclaiming that area. R1: 190–200 USD surrounds that historical resistance. R2: 255–261 USD surrounds the 38.2% recovery of the decline from 543.00 to 81.81: 81.81 + 0.382 × (543.00 − 81.81) = 257.98. R3: 310–316 USD surrounds the 50% recovery of the same decline, calculated at 312.41. These are arithmetic retracements despite the logarithmic chart display. They are not extensions of a confirmed new impulse. The dotted paths and horizontal zone lengths are schematic, not timing forecasts. The alternative Below 91.67, the rebound weakens. Below 81.81, the June-bottom hypothesis fails. The alternative 73–75 zone contains the 88.6% retracement of the 13.26–543.00 advance, calculated at 73.65. Below 13.26, the selected developing Cycle III interpretation fails. Those distant structural levels are not automatic trade stops. Any eventual trade needs a setup-specific invalidation and enough room to the next resistance to justify its risk. The value of this count is the sequence of tests it creates: reclaim 144.92, then negotiate 197. Price must provide those confirmations. A plausible wave label or Fibonacci relationship alone does not establish a trading edge or a probability. Educational technical interpretation, not a personalized investment recommendation.