ZEC/USDT | H1 | ZEC ON THE CREST OF THE ETF WAVEZcash / USDTMEXC:ZECUSDTTerminator_Crypto_Analyst🎯 TP1: $1301.98 (+2.22%) │ TP2: $1336.27 (+4.91%) 🛑 SL: $1211.44 (-7.50%) │ R/R: 1 : 0.61 ⚠️ Stop is wider than TP2 target (R/R < 1) — the closer target is taken more often, but calculate your position size based on the stop size FUNDAMENTAL BACKGROUND Zcash seized the initiative thanks to the launch of the first spot Zcash ETF in the US through the conversion of the Grayscale trust into ZCSH on NYSE Arca — this ensured a direct inflow of institutional demand and record open interest in ZEC perpetuals. Short position liquidations amplified the upward momentum, turning ZEC into a leading story within the altcoin segment against a generally favorable backdrop for risk assets. No significant macro releases for the asset are expected in the coming days, and the Fed's rate decision on 16.09.2026 remains beyond the horizon for short-term dynamics. TECHNICAL PICTURE ADX at 44.1 indicates a strong trend with a clear advantage for buyers — the market is in an active impulse phase. The price is trading above the Bollinger Band midline ($1,226.37) and approaching the upper band ($1,303.16), signaling a continuation of bullish pressure while the channel width is maintained. The CCI 20 indicator at 95.1 is entering the overbought zone but has not reached critical levels — this is more a confirmation of trend strength than a reversal signal. ATR at 26.37 indicates high intraday volatility, consistent with the strong nature of the expected move. PROBABILITY MODEL The market is in a bullish mode with a 51% probability of continuation versus 35% for a bearish reversal — the buyers' advantage persists but is not overwhelming. Model confidence is moderate: the ETF catalyst and technical structure support the bullish scenario, but the overbought zone and proximity to the upper Bollinger Band limit the potential without a new driver. DIRECTION 🟢 BUY — strong trend according to ADX and trading above the Bollinger Band midline confirm buyer dominance.