A satellite closeup of Hurricane Lowell on Sept. 8, 2026, after it passed just west of Kauai in the Hawaiian Islands. NASAThe Hawaiian Islands rarely see significant hurricane damage, but they just experienced the effects of their second hurricane in a year as Hurricane Lowell’s eyewall brushed Niihau, west of Kauai, on Sept. 8, 2026.The hurricane brought heavy downpours, high surf and hurricane-force wind gusts that pounded both islands, knocking out power and flooding roads. Tropical storm conditions reached as far as Honolulu on the island of Oahu. A video from Kauai shows the damage during Hurricane Lowell. ABC News. Lowell was the 14th named Pacific storm of 2026 and the fifth hurricane. The one that formed right after it, Hurricane Marie, sent big waves to Southern California, eroding coastal areas, and the Pacific hurricane season doesn’t end until Nov. 30. By some metrics, the season has had the most active start since 2021.In August, a near-miss by Hurricane Lala brought hurricane-force winds to the Hawaii’s Big Island for the first time since 1871.People joke that the Hawaiian Islands have a force field keeping hurricanes away. But this year, a few things are keeping that force field down. I’m one of the few atmospheric scientists whose research focuses on Pacific hurricanes. Here’s what I’m seeing in the eastern and central Pacific basins this year.2 reasons Hawaii is typically sparedFor decades, Hawaii was thought of as a special place that somehow dodged hurricanes despite its tropical location. While it lies at a similar latitude to other hurricane-prone regions, such as the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico or the Bahamas, significant hurricane damage is rare there.Hurricanes Dot (1959), Iwa (1982), Iniki (1992) and Lane (2018) were the most notable storms in the islands’ recorded history.Iniki is often considered the worst: Its 145 mph wind gusts damaged about 70% of Kauai’s homes and businesses and more than 550 buildings on Oahu. The paths of four notable hurricanes that directly impacted Hawaii. Matthew Fibbi, CC BY-ND There are two reasons for Hawaii’s lack of more frequent hurricane impacts.First, Hawaii is a pretty small target over the vast Pacific Ocean. The probability of a hurricane passing over any particular point is low, especially farther from the Mexican coast, since most Pacific hurricanes tend to stay closer to Mexico. Second, the ocean itself forms a hurricane shield of sorts for the islands. The ocean has cooler water temperatures to the east, where most storms approaching the islands come from. Without warm oceans to provide fuel, hurricanes tend to weaken and fizzle out as they approach the islands. The cooler waters to the east of Hawaii are evident in this map of average ocean temperature differences. It shows temperatures in Celsius at water depths between 20 meters and 1,000 meters (65 feet and 3,280 feet) for the two years from July 1, 2007, through June 30, 2009. Gerard Nihous with data from HYCOM and U.S. Navy, CC BY Hawaii is often affected by weaker and decaying tropical systems, but their impacts are typically limited to localized flooding and large waves. That’s what Hawaii saw from Hurricane Kiko in 2025 as it weakened passing north of the islands.In 2026, Lala also approached the islands from the east, but it stayed at a lower latitude, which allowed the storm to intensify over warmer-than-normal waters. Most of the storms that approach the islands from the east are forced to battle the normal “shield” of cooler ocean temperatures located to the east of the islands. Lowell, like Dot, Iniki, and Lane, took a different journey this year. While all four of those storms developed to the east-southeast of the islands, they all tracked south of the islands before making a sharp turn toward the north or northwest to head toward Hawaii.Dot and Iniki made landfall on Kauai, one of the westernmost islands. Iniki was the only known landfall of a major hurricane – a Category 3 storm or higher – in the state.In 2018, Hurricane Lane turned toward Oahu, but it weakened due to increasingly hostile atmospheric conditions – including increased vertical wind shear, with faster winds near the top of the storm than the bottom, making it harder for the storm to keep its organized structure – and a drier, more stable air mass. While it didn’t make landfall, Lane still brought record-breaking rainfall to the islands, with as much as 58 inches (1.47 meters) falling on the Big Island.Why Lowell made a sharp turn south of HawaiiIn the eastern and central Pacific, the most common tropical storm track is a nearly straight line toward the west, driven by an atmospheric feature known as the Hawaiian High or subtropical ridge. This semipermanent high-pressure system sits to the northeast of Hawaii. A map of tropical storms that were in the vicinity of Hawaii at some point in 2026, as of Sept. 8. Hurricane Lowell (12) made a sharp turn to the north before passing Kauai. Hurricane Lala (1) passed to the south of the islands. Storms originating in the Central Pacific and Eastern Pacific are named from separate lists, which is why 2026 had two Pacific hurricanes starting with ‘L’. NOAA The Hawaiian High’s sinking air makes it harder for hurricanes to draw heat and moisture from the ocean. The result is pleasant conditions for the islands while hurricanes are steered around the edge of the high-pressure system.The typical pattern around the high directs storms to the west, missing the islands. However, occasionally, low-pressure troughs can migrate southward and turn a storm toward the north, increasing its acceleration in the process, as happened with Lowell.The role of El NiñoAnother important player on the Pacific hurricane scene is El Niño.During strong El Niño years, like 2026, the tropical Pacific is much warmer than normal. The ocean tends to be busier with hurricanes during El Niño, while the Atlantic is typically quieter – as we’re seeing in 2026.Researchers at the University of Hawaii-Manoa identified a significant increase in the frequency and likelihood of tropical cyclones in the vicinity of Hawaii during El Niño years compared with other years. They hypothesize that El Niño years favor more Hawaiian systems due to increases in atmospheric humidity and favorable wind patterns in the region. Three hurricanes – Lowell, Karina and Marie – in the Pacific Ocean at the same time was a rare sight. Lowell reached Category 5 strength; Karina Category 4; and Marie was a tropical storm at the time the satellite image was captured on Sept. 6, 2026, but reached Category 2 strength. Lauren Dauphin/NASA Earth Observatory The most notable change during El Niño years is the warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures, particularly to the south and east of Hawaii. These warmer temperatures supported Lala intensifying into Category 1 hurricane as it approached the Big Island from the east and passed just south of the chain. Multiple studies have also noted that increases in hurricane activity across the western portion of the eastern Pacific and the central Pacific generally are seen during El Niño years as well, such as in 2015.What’s likely for the rest of the Pacific season?Generally, as the season progresses into fall, hurricanes near Hawaii become less likely, while the risk of hurricane landfalls rises for the Pacific coast of Mexico.In recent years, several powerful Pacific storms have made landfall in Mexico, including Hurricanes Willa (2018), Roslyn (2022) and Otis (2023), all of which hit during the last third of October. The Atlantic, meanwhile, is forecast to remain much less active than normal, even through the peak months of its 2026 hurricane season.Nicholas Grondin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.