Prediction: Nvidia Will Overtake Apple in Stock Buybacks and Dividends Under New Apple CEO John Ternus

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Skip to navigationSkip to main contentSkip to right columnADVERTISEMENTDaniel Foelber, The Motley FoolSat, September 12, 2026 at 12:36 PM GMT+2 5 min readOver his 15-year tenure as CEO, Tim Cook grew Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) from a market cap of around $350 billion to well over $4 trillion. The strategy was fairly straightforward.Apple regularly releases new versions of its winning products like iPhone, Mac, and iPad; penetrates a few key product categories in wearables and headphones/earbuds; and expands its services (like app store revenue, advertising, iCloud, Apple Music, Apple TV, Apple Pay, etc.) to complement its hardware ecosystem.Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »That strategy unlocked steadily rising profits and free cash flow (FCF), which Apple used to reinvest in its core business, grow its dividend, and buy back gobs of its own stock.For years, Apple has had by far the largest buyback budget of any U.S. company. But that all could change under new CEO John Ternus.Image source: Getty Images.Cook's specialty was operations, but Ternus served as vice president of hardware engineering before becoming CEO. Hiring Ternus as CEO sends a clear signal to Wall Street that Apple is gearing up for a period of innovation rather than relying on its growing services network, marginal product upgrades, and stock buybacks to fuel earnings growth.Even under Cook's leadership, Apple has already been pulling back on buybacks as it geared up for major product upgrades and new releases discussed during Apple's latest Sept. 9 event.Data byYCharts.As you can see in the chart, Apple's trailing-12-month buybacks peaked at $100 billion but have since declined to $82.2 billion. Meanwhile, Nvidia's (NASDAQ: NVDA) buybacks have been surging in lockstep with its FCF, while major tech stocks like Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Alphabet -- which used to be buyback leaders -- have since pulled back in buybacks as they invest heavily in artificial intelligence (AI).Data byYCharts.For years, Apple's services sales were growing faster than its product revenue. But that trend has changed, as Apple reported its best third quarter in five years on July 30, which included an 18.1% year-over-year increase in product sales.Granted, some of that jump could have been due to consumers anticipating price increases in response to rising memory chip costs. But it's still encouraging to see Apple's earnings growth pick up after years of sluggish results.Terms and Privacy PolicyEU DSA contactPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore Info