Skip to navigationSkip to main contentSkip to right columnADVERTISEMENTDaniel Sparks, The Motley FoolSat, September 12, 2026 at 9:54 AM GMT+2 5 min readQuantum computing companies are finally starting to generate real revenue. IonQ (NYSE:IONQ), for instance, raised its full-year 2026 revenue outlook to a range of $450 million to $460 million ahead of its first joint investor day on Tuesday -- helped by the addition of SkyWater Technology, the chipmaking business it acquired at the end of July.D-Wave Quantum (NASDAQ:QBTS) is at a much earlier stage. The quantum computing specialist's revenue for the first half of 2026 fell 67% year over year to $5.9 million.Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »Even so, I predict the company's revenue triples before 2030. The case doesn't rest on D-Wave's recent growth rate -- there isn't one to lean on. It rests on what customers have already contracted to spend.To be clear, I'm predicting what the business does, not what the stock does. The growth stock trades near $18 as of this writing, less than half its 52-week peak of $46.75, and I think even a tripled top line would leave shares expensive.Image source: Getty Images.A lumpy revenue baseD-Wave's full-year 2025 revenue was $24.6 million, up 179% from $8.8 million in 2024. That jump, however, leaned heavily on a single event. The company's first-ever sale of an annealing quantum computing system contributed $12.6 million to first-quarter 2025 revenue. So when 2026 lapped that deal, the comparisons turned ugly. Revenue fell 81% year over year in the first quarter of 2026, and revenue in the second quarter was essentially flat at $3.1 million.Set the system sale aside, and the ongoing business (mostly selling access to D-Wave's machines over the cloud) still generates only a few million dollars a quarter. Any credible forecast has to start there, with a base that is tiny and bumpy.The order book is soaringBookings, which capture the value of contracts customers signed during the period, totaled $35.5 million in the first half of 2026. A year earlier, that figure was just $2.9 million. Notably, that six-month figure topped the company's revenue for all of last year.The haul included a $20 million system purchase by Florida Atlantic University and a $10 million, two-year cloud-access agreement with a Fortune 100 company.Signed contracts pile up in remaining performance obligations (revenue customers have signed for but D-Wave hasn't yet delivered). A year ago, that backlog was just $5.3 million. As of June 30, it stood at $40.7 million. And the company expects about 57% of that backlog to become revenue over the next 12 months, with 72% arriving inside two years.Terms and Privacy PolicyEU DSA contactPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore Info