[BTC Outlook] 2021-2022 Fractal & Liquidity Sweep: Watch for theBitcoin / U.S. dollarBITSTAMP:BTCUSDkuruto_exe■ Macro Context & Thesis Bitcoin is currently staging a strong relief rally from recent swing lows. However, looking through the lens of market structure and institutional liquidity, this move closely resembles the dead-cat bounce / bear-market rally witnessed during the 2021-2022 cycle rather than an authentic macro trend reversal. We anticipate a textbook institutional "Bull Trap": sweeping aggressive breakout buy-side liquidity while triggering short stop-losses (BSL sweep) to build downward momentum before the broader structural decline continues. --- ■ Key Confluences 1. Resistance & Role Reversal (Breaker Block / IFVG Re-test) The former macro key support zone between $82,222 and $89,087 has now flipped into formidable resistance. Price is actively retesting this confluent Breaker Block and Inverted Fair Value Gap (IFVG) area, where overhead supply remains heavy. 2. 2021-2022 Fractal Analogy The current wave structure mirrors the mid-cycle liquidity trap of the previous bear phase—luring retail participants back into the market under the illusion of a full recovery before forming a decisive lower high. 3. MTF RSI & Momentum Divergence - Daily RSI has entered extreme overbought territory (>80). - Weekly and Monthly RSIs hover near equilibrium (~50). This divergence indicates short-term exhaustion into a high-timeframe supply block, providing high-probability short-side confluence. --- ■ Downside Target & Invalidation Levels - Downside Target: Major liquidity pools resting along the multi-year macro ascending trendline ($35,000–$40,000 zone). - Invalidation Level: A sustained daily or weekly candle body close firmly above $89,500 invalidates this bearish thesis. Disclaimer: For educational and chart-tracking purposes only. Not financial advice. Always practice strict risk management and capital preservation.