XAUUSD — Medium-Term Bearish Wave Toward 3,836GoldOANDA:XAUUSDKelly_Koou_Gold Gold is showing a medium-term bearish Elliott Wave structure after failing to recover above the descending channel resistance. From Kelly’s view, the chart suggests that XAUUSD is still moving inside a broader downside trend, and the current rebound may only be a correction before the next bearish wave continues. The key idea is simple: gold may retest support first, then create a short recovery, but as long as price stays below the descending trendline and resistance structure, the priority scenario remains bearish for next week. ⟡ Market structure Gold is currently trading around 4,349, still below the main descending channel. The previous bullish trendline has already been weakened, and price is now moving under bearish pressure. The first important level to watch is the 4,282–4,300 strong support area. If gold breaks below this zone, the next downside path may open toward 4,230, then the 4,090–4,110 Buy zone wave 4. For the medium-term structure, if sellers continue to control the market, gold may extend lower toward the final Done wave 5 area near 3,836–3,850. ➤ Key levels ◌ Current price area: 4,349 ◌ Short-term resistance: 4,360–4,390 ◌ Strong support: 4,282–4,300 ◌ Next downside level: 4,230 ◌ Buy zone wave 4: 4,090–4,110 ◌ Main bearish target: 3,836–3,850 ◌ Bearish invalidation: above 4,430–4,450 ⌁ Elliott Wave view The chart is showing a possible bearish continuation structure. Wave (1) started after price rejected from the upper zone. Wave (2) created a corrective rebound but failed below the descending resistance. Wave (3) may now continue lower toward 4,230 and 4,096. Wave (4) could later create a short recovery from the lower buy zone. Wave (5) may complete the larger bearish cycle near 3,836–3,850. This is why Kelly does not treat the current bounce as a confirmed bullish reversal. The recovery is still under resistance, and the market needs a strong breakout above the trendline before the bearish wave count becomes weaker. ▸ Trading scenario Preferred bearish scenario Entry: Sell on rejection around 4,360–4,390, or after price breaks below 4,282 and retests weakly Stop Loss: Above 4,450 Take Profit 1: 4,282–4,300 Take Profit 2: 4,230 Take Profit 3: 4,090–4,110 Take Profit 4: 3,836–3,850 Alternative scenario If gold breaks above 4,430–4,450 and holds above the descending trendline, the bearish setup becomes weaker. In that case, price may attempt a stronger recovery before the next sell setup appears. ◌ Invalidation The bearish view becomes weaker if gold reclaims 4,430–4,450 with strong bullish momentum. A clean hold above this zone would suggest that the current downside wave is losing strength. ⌁ Kelly’s view Kelly’s main view for next week remains bearish while gold stays below the descending channel resistance. The structure still favors selling rebounds rather than chasing buys. If sellers break 4,282–4,300, gold may continue toward 4,230, then 4,090–4,110. The larger Elliott Wave target remains near 3,836–3,850 if bearish momentum extends. Do you think gold will break strong support next week, or create one more rebound before wave (5) continues lower?