SPY Losing Momentum - Approaching a Larger CorrectionState Street SPDR S&P 500 ETFBATS:SPYKellerMellowitzSPY has spent the past several months trending higher within a well-defined ascending channel dating back to the April 2025 low. Price recently tested the upper boundary of that channel near 775 and has since reversed, printing consecutive lower closes down to the current 764 level. This kind of rejection at established trendline resistance is a classic signal that the advance may be losing steam in the near term. More notably, the move to new highs was not confirmed by momentum. RSI(14) formed a lower high even as price posted a higher high — a textbook bearish divergence that suggests buying pressure has been fading beneath the surface, even as headline price action stayed strong. The RSI moving average has also flattened out just above the midline (50.31), reinforcing the picture of momentum stalling rather than accelerating. Price is also extended relative to trend. The 200-day SMA sits at 714.23, roughly 50 points below spot — a wide deviation that has historically preceded some degree of mean reversion. Macro backdrop adds to the case. Inflation data has come in hotter than expected in recent months (CPI ~3.4% YoY, core PCE running higher still), and market pricing ahead of the September 16 FOMC meeting has shifted meaningfully — from expectations of a rate cut toward real odds of a hike. A hawkish surprise or hold-with-hawkish-guidance from the Fed would be a logical catalyst to accelerate a pullback in an index that is already technically stretched and showing weakening momentum. Target: 730 This level aligns with the midline of the ascending channel and with a prior consolidation shelf from earlier in the summer, making it a reasonable near-term downside objective over the coming weeks. A break below 730 would put the 200-day SMA (714) back in play as the next area of interest.https://www.tradingview.com/chart/f3v0Axb9/ SPY