H2 Bullish Recovery From Major DemandGoldOANDA:XAUUSDMason_Drake XAUUSD is trading around 4,349 after another volatile session around the lower H2 structure. Price remains inside a broader descending channel, but the current location is close to a major demand cluster where a recovery setup may begin to develop. The macro backdrop remains challenging for gold. U.S. August CPI rose 0.4% MoM and 3.4% YoY, while core CPI increased 0.3% MoM and 2.4% YoY. Markets now price roughly an 85% probability of a Fed rate hike next week, keeping pressure on non-yielding gold. However, the U.S. 10-year yield eased back toward 4.93% after nearly touching 5%, providing some short-term relief. Technical View The broader structure remains below the descending channel resistance, so the recovery is not confirmed yet. Price is currently holding around the 4,335–4,360 Demand / Reclaim Zone. This area may support a short-term bounce, but the cleaner bullish location remains lower at the 4,275–4,300 Major Demand / Bullish OB. A liquidity sweep into that major demand followed by a strong reclaim, bullish MSS or higher-low confirmation would support the recovery path shown on the chart. The first upside obstacle is 4,385–4,405 Resistance / Bearish OB. Acceptance above this area would strengthen the recovery and expose the larger 4,475–4,490 Major Resistance / Supply zone. Key Zones Current Price: 4,349.420 Demand / Reclaim Zone: 4,335–4,360 Buy Priority: 4,275–4,300 Resistance / Bearish OB: 4,385–4,405 Major Resistance / Supply: 4,475–4,490 Trading Plan Buy Priority: 4,275–4,300 Condition: wait for a liquidity sweep into Major Demand followed by bullish rejection, reclaim, MSS or clear higher-low confirmation. TP1: 4,335–4,360 TP2: 4,385–4,405 TP3: 4,475–4,490 Invalidation: sustained acceptance below 4,275. Buy/Sell View The preferred setup is to wait for a deeper pullback into Major Demand rather than chase the current bounce. Shorts also become less attractive near 4,300 because price would already be entering a major bullish OB. The cleaner decision is to let demand confirm whether buyers can absorb the remaining sell-side pressure. Important Note Inflation remains the main macro risk. With CPI and PPI both firm, Fed tightening expectations remain elevated, while oil above $100 continues to reinforce inflation concerns. Any renewed rise in Treasury yields could pressure gold again. Final View Gold remains structurally weak, but 4,275–4,300 is the key H2 area where the risk/reward begins to shift toward a recovery setup. My main scenario is a liquidity sweep into Major Demand followed by bullish confirmation, targeting 4,385–4,405 first and potentially 4,475–4,490 if the recovery strengthens. Will gold sweep Major Demand before starting the next H2 recovery?