XAUUSD — Sell the H1 Fibonacci Retest

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XAUUSD — Sell the H1 Fibonacci RetestGoldOANDA:XAUUSDXAU_Macro_PulseFundamental Analysis Gold is trading around the $4,400 area as geopolitical risk supports safe-haven demand, but the macro backdrop remains difficult. Oil has moved above $100 as Middle East tensions intensify, increasing inflation concerns and keeping markets alert to another Fed hike. Futures currently price roughly a 60% probability of a 25 bp increase at the September 15–16 meeting. Before the Fed decision, Thursday’s PPI and Friday’s CPI will be critical. Softer inflation could reduce tightening expectations, while another hot print would reinforce the bearish pressure from higher rates. Technical Analysis On H1, XAUUSD is trading near 4,393 after rebounding from the 4,341 demand zone. However, the broader structure remains corrective bearish below the descending trendline. The key area for next week is 4,408–4,426, where Fibonacci 0.618–0.786, the marked sell zone, and descending trendline resistance converge. If price retraces into this zone and sellers defend it, downside pressure could return toward 4,382, then 4,366, with 4,330–4,341 as the main liquidity objective. A deeper extension exposes the 4,295–4,310 support zone. Important Key Levels 4,449–4,465 — Major supply 4,408–4,426 — Main sell zone 4,382–4,398 — H1 FVG 4,366 — Short-term support 4,330–4,341 — Demand zone 4,295–4,310 — Major support Trading Scenario Main Sell Setup Entry: 4,408–4,426 Stop Loss: 4,452 Take Profit 1: 4,382 Take Profit 2: 4,366 Take Profit 3: 4,330–4,341 Sell Condition Wait for bearish confirmation inside the sell zone: rejection wick, bearish engulfing candle, failed trendline breakout, or an H1 close back below 4,408. A sustained break above 4,449–4,465 would invalidate the immediate bearish idea. Overall View The H1 bias remains bearish while price stays below the descending trendline and 4,408–4,426 resistance. The preferred plan is to avoid chasing shorts around current price and wait for a Fibonacci retest. A confirmed rejection could reopen 4,366, followed by 4,330–4,341. Will gold retest 4,408–4,426 before sellers attack 4,341 again?