NVDA: Elliott Wave roadmap — the $240 confirmation testNVIDIA CorporationBATS:NVDApricewerkNVIDIA is approaching a decision area, not an automatic buy signal. With the September 8 daily close at $225.73, the first question is whether price can establish acceptance above $236–240. The higher projections on this chart only become useful if that resistance is cleared and the breakout holds. This daily roadmap begins on October 13, 2022 and uses regular-session data through September 8, 2026, checked before publication on September 9. Prices are in USD on the displayed TradingView feed, using a linear scale. Key pivot prices were read from the Data Window; the count remains an interpretation of those prices. The working structure The higher-degree hypothesis places Cycle at the January 7, 2025 high of $153.13, following the advance from $10.81 in October 2022. The blue Primary 1–5 sequence outlines that advance. The subsequent correction is provisionally labeled A–B–C into $86.62 on April 7, 2025, potentially completing Cycle . Purple Intermediate waves provide selected internal detail within the historical Primary 3 and the proposed first Primary wave of the new advance. That later sequence ends at $212.19 on October 29, 2025. The March 30, 2026 low of $164.27 is the working Primary 2 reference, leaving a possible Primary 3 within Cycle developing. There is an important qualification: the internal structure of the 2024–25 fifth wave is ambiguous. The correction has also not been validated swing by swing at every smaller degree. This is a provisional roadmap, not a claim that every label has a unique or fully confirmed solution. What the wave count contributes The useful part of Elliott analysis is the hierarchy of questions. A pullback can damage a local continuation setup while leaving a larger trend intact. Conversely, a bullish higher-degree label does not make every entry attractive. Here, the price levels should govern the interpretation. If the market refuses to confirm the bullish path, the count must adapt. Fibonacci relationships provide reference points; they do not establish the probability of a target being reached. Confirmation and target ladder I would look for a daily close above $240, followed by a retest that holds and a higher low. The May 14, 2026 high at $236.54 sits inside the first resistance band. An intraday push above resistance followed by a close back below it would be weaker evidence. • $236–240: the prior-high area and initial breakout test. • $258–264: a conditional projection cluster. Projecting the March-to-May 2026 advance from the June 29 low gives $189.80 + ($236.54 − $164.27) = $262.07. Separately, $86.62 + 1.236 × ($153.13 − $10.81) gives approximately $262.53. • $312–320: a distant Cycle reference. The arithmetic projection $86.62 + 1.618 × ($153.13 − $10.81) gives approximately $316.89. This requires sustained strength through the lower zones; it is not a near-term promise. Even after a breakout, an entry needs enough room to the next resistance zone to justify its stop distance. Waiting is reasonable if confirmation is incomplete or the reward-to-risk relationship is unattractive. When the bullish interpretation weakens Below $189.80, the local continuation thesis needs reassessment. Below $164.27, the proposed Primary 2 low fails and a larger correction may still be developing. A break below $86.62 would invalidate the hypothesis that the new advance launched from the April 2025 low. Below $10.81, the entire displayed Cycle I/II interpretation must be rejected. These are different structural thresholds, not interchangeable trade stops. A practical stop belongs to the actual entry setup and position sizing, with allowance for gap risk. For now, the next useful evidence is NVIDIA's behavior at $236–240. The teal and orange paths illustrate conditional alternatives; their horizontal spacing is for readability, not a forecast of timing. Educational technical analysis. No trade or position is implied. Wave counts and projections should be reassessed as price develops.