MICHAEL CROWLEY2026年9月10日1961年5月17日，约翰·肯尼迪总统在渥太华向加拿大议会联席会议发表讲话。 Associated PressThe invasion of Canada was to be swift and overwhelming.对加拿大的入侵本应迅速而且势如破竹。U.S. forces would take the port city of Halifax before seizing power plants near Niagara Falls. More American troops would storm across the border to capture Montreal, Quebec and other key cities. The secret U.S. military plan, known as War Plan Red, even authorized the use of poison gas.美军先夺取港口城市哈利法克斯，然后占领尼亚加拉瀑布附近的发电厂。更多美军越过边境，攻占蒙特利尔、魁北克和其他关键城市。这项名为“红色战争计划”的秘密美军计划甚至授权使用毒气。The assault was never seriously considered. Drafted in 1927 and declassified decades later, it was a contingency plan for a highly unlikely war.这次进攻从未被认真考虑过。它起草于1927年，数十年后被解密，是针对一场极不可能发生的战争的应急预案。History took the opposite path: In the century since, the United States and Canada have been two of the friendliest and most integrated nations ever to share a border.历史走上了相反的道路：在此后一个世纪里，美国和加拿大成为了有史以来关系最为友好、融合程度最高的两个接壤国家。Until recently, that is.直到最近为止。President Trump has thrown the U.S.-Canada relationship into its greatest crisis since his country’s northern neighbor became self-governing in 1867. Accusing Canada of unfair trade practices, Mr. Trump has instigated a trade war that on Tuesday led Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada to retaliate with tariffs targeting roughly $20 billion in U.S. imports. Mr. Trump in turn escalated with bans on imports of some Canadian motorcycles, alcoholic beverages, dairy products and molasses.特朗普总统将美加关系推入自这个北方邻国1867年实现自治以来最严重的危机。特朗普指责加拿大采取不公平贸易做法，挑起了一场贸易战，这导致加拿大总理马克·卡尼于本周二采取报复措施，对约200亿美元的美国进口商品加征关税。特朗普随后升级行动，禁止进口部分加拿大摩托车、酒精饮料、乳制品和糖蜜。Mr. Trump is hardly the first U.S. president to feud with Canada, especially on economic matters. Trade disputes shook relations for much of the 20th century, though they became far less common once the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement came into force.特朗普远不是第一个与加拿大发生争执的美国总统，尤其是在经济问题上。贸易争端在20世纪大部分时间里动摇了两国关系，但在1994年《北美自由贸易协定》生效后，这类争端变得少得多。Other heated cross-border disputes have flared on matters ranging from Alaska’s Yukon border to whether Canada would allow American nuclear weapons on its soil.还有其他激烈的跨境争端，包括从阿拉斯加育空边界到加拿大是否允许美国核武器进入其领土等各种问题。But Mr. Trump’s hostility toward Canada features a nationalist streak that goes well beyond economics. He has taunted its leaders as weaklings, denigrated its military as ineffective and even challenged its sovereignty. In particular, his talk of claiming its 3.9 million square miles of territory as a “51st state” has inflamed longtime Canadian anxieties about American domination, and even invasion.但特朗普对加拿大的敌意带有一种远超出经济范畴的民族主义色彩。他嘲讽加拿大领导人软弱，贬低其军队无能，甚至质疑其主权。尤其是他声称要将加拿大998万平方公里的领土变为“第51个州”，这点燃了加拿大人长期以来对美国支配甚至入侵的担忧。At times he even intimates violence, as in a recent Truth Social post depicting himself and Mr. Carney in hockey gear, with Mr. Trump standing over a fallen Mr. Carney as though he has just body-checked the Canadian leader.有时他甚至暗示会诉诸暴力，比如他最近在Truth Social上发布的一条帖子，描绘自己和卡尼穿着冰球装备，特朗普站在倒地的卡尼上方，仿佛刚刚对这位加拿大领导人进行了身体冲撞。“I think it’s actually impossible to find a period where things were as bad,” said Robert Bothwell, a professor emeritus at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs who specializes in U.S.-Canada relations. “There’s never been an occasion, ever, where an American president has said the annexation of Canada was his objective.”“我认为实际上不太可能找到比现在更糟的时期，”多伦多大学蒙克全球事务学院专门研究美加关系的荣休教授罗伯特·博思韦尔说。“从来没有过，从来没有过美国总统说吞并加拿大是他的目标。”Before Mr. Trump came along, the popular American image of Canada was one of a friendly, harmless and perhaps somewhat dull junior partner to the United States. The notion of cross-border conflict was the stuff of satire. The 1995 Hollywood comedy “Canadian Bacon” imagined an unpopular U.S. president who whips up popular resentment toward Canada to distract from his domestic struggles. Now Canadians ask whether the movie was prescient.在特朗普出现之前，美国人对加拿大的普遍印象是一个友好、无害、或许有些乏味的美国小伙伴。跨境冲突的想法是讽刺作品的素材。1995年的好莱坞喜剧《加拿大培根》(Canadian Bacon)设想了一位不受欢迎的美国总统，他煽动民众对加拿大的不满，以转移对国内困境的注意力。如今，加拿大人不禁要问，这部电影是不是一种先见之明？Canadians have always been warier of the United States, according to Christopher Sands, the director of the Center for U.S.-Canada Relations at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies.约翰斯·霍普金斯大学高级国际研究学院美加关系中心主任克里斯托弗·桑兹说，加拿大人一直对美国持更谨慎的态度。Canada was formed by several British colonies that had never broken with London, unlike their American counterparts. Seeing the growth of U.S. economic and military power as a potential threat, they joined together in the name of collective strength while remaining part of the British Empire well into the 20th century. (War Plan Red did not reflect such a threat: It imagined a U.S. attack on Canada as a defensive response to war with Britain.)加拿大由几个英国殖民地组成，与美国的殖民地不同，这些殖民地从未与伦敦决裂。它们将美国经济和军事实力的增长视为潜在威胁，于是以集体力量的名义联合起来，同时直到20世纪仍留在英帝国之内。（“红色战争计划”并未反映这种威胁：它设想美国对加拿大的攻击是对与英国开战的防御性回应。）Quarrels over a common 5,525-mile border were largely settled in a 1908 agreement, one that Mr. Trump has called invalid.围绕两国8891公里边界的争端主要在1908年的一项协议中得到解决，特朗普曾称该协议无效。But economics still roiled the relationship. After Congress approved a 1911 agreement to drop tariffs on major Canadian imports, conservatives in Canada attacked it as a threat to the country’s independence — not entirely without justification.但经济仍然搅动着两国关系。1911年，美国国会批准了一项取消加拿大主要进口商品关税的协议后，加拿大的保守派抨击该协议威胁加拿大国家独立——这并非完全没有道理。“I look forward to the time when the American flag will fly over every square foot of British North America up to the North Pole,” Representative Champ Clark, a Missouri Democrat who would soon become speaker, declared during a House debate on the measure. “我期待美国国旗飘扬在英属北美直到北极每一平方英尺的土地上，”密苏里州民主党众议员钱普·克拉克在众议院就该措施辩论时宣称。他不久后就成了众议院议长。A backlash resulted in Canada. According to Mr. Bothwell, some Americans were stopped on the street and forced to sing “God Save the King.”这在加拿大产生了强烈反弹。据博思韦尔说，一些美国人在街上被拦下，被逼着唱《天佑国王》。Cold War politics produced more clashes. Canada fought alongside the United States in both world wars and joined the United States as a founding member of NATO. And President John F. Kennedy celebrated the relationship in a grandiloquent 1961 address to Canada’s parliament: “Those whom nature hath so joined together, let no man put asunder,” he declared.冷战政治产生了更多冲突。加拿大在两次世界大战中与美国并肩作战，并作为创始成员与美国一起加入北约。1961年，约翰·肯尼迪总统在加拿大议会发表了一篇气势恢宏的演讲，颂扬两国关系：“自然使其结合的，人力不可使其分离，”他宣称。But Mr. Kennedy lashed out at Canada’s prime minister when he resisted the placement of certain U.S. nuclear weapons on Canadian soil that were intended to deter the Soviet Union, and when he hesitated to place Canada’s military on heightened alert during the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962.但加拿大总理抵制在加拿大领土上部署旨在威慑苏联的某些美国核武器，1962年古巴导弹危机期间，他又犹豫是否应让加拿大军队进入高度戒备状态，这两次，肯尼迪都猛烈抨击了这位总理。An even greater shock came in the form of Richard Nixon’s 1971 move from the gold standard and imposition of 10 percent tariffs on all imports, including Canadian ones. While many countries were affected, none were quite so dependent on the U.S. economy as Canada.更大的冲击来自理查德·尼克松1971年放弃金本位，并对包括加拿大在内的所有进口商品征收10%的关税。虽然许多国家受到影响，但没有哪个国家像加拿大那样依赖美国经济。After a heated December 1971 meeting at the White House between Mr. Nixon and Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, Mr. Nixon declared the Canadian a “pompous egghead” and a “son of a bitch.” Mr. Trudeau later responded that he had “been called worse things by better people.”在1971年12月尼克松与皮埃尔·特鲁多总理在白宫的一次激烈会晤后，尼克松称这位加拿大人是“自命不凡的书呆子”和“混蛋”。特鲁多后来回应说，他“曾被更优秀的人骂过更难听的话”。Mr. Nixon abandoned the plan months later. Mr. Sands said the economic disruption it created wound up driving support for greater free trade across the border, culminating in the 1994 NAFTA agreement. (Mr. Trump has derided that Clinton-era pact as a “nightmare,” and renegotiated it during his first term under the rubric of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or U.S.M.C.A.)尼克松几个月后放弃了该计划。桑兹说，该计划造成的经济动荡最终推动了跨境自由贸易的支持，最终促成了1994年的北美自由贸易协定。（特朗普嘲笑这个克林顿时代的协定是“噩梦”，并在第一个任期内以美墨加协定的名义对其进行重新谈判。）The shock of Mr. Nixon’s economic gambit also boosted Canadian mistrust of U.S. economic intentions. In 1973, the Canadian political thriller “Ultimatum” depicted an American president’s demand for free access to Canada’s vast oil and gas reserves.尼克松经济赌注带来的冲击也加剧了加拿大对美国经济意图的不信任。1973年，加拿大政治惊悚小说《最后通牒》(Ultimatum)描绘了一位美国总统要求自由获取加拿大庞大石油和天然气储备的情节。Canada’s prime minister resists, but the American president refuses to take no for an answer.加拿大总理拒绝，但美国总统根本不肯接受拒绝。“As of this moment, Canada will become part of the United States of America. The government of Canada is hereby dissolved,” he declares at its conclusion. “从此刻起，加拿大将成为美利坚合众国的一部分。加拿大政府就此解散，”他在影片结尾宣称。“Ultimatum” became the year’s best-selling book in Canada.《最后通牒》成为当年加拿大最畅销的书。Few expect Mr. Trump to go that far. Mr. Sands said Mr. Carney could still strike a deal to defuse the crisis. But he also warned that the dispute had unleashed forces that may take on a life of their own.很少有人预计特朗普会走到那一步。桑兹说，卡尼仍可能达成协议以化解危机。但他也警告说，这场争端已经释放出一些力量，这些力量可能会发展出自己的生命力。“Trump has pushed the nationalist buttons in Canada,” Mr. Sands said. “As long as Carney resists, it’s good for his politics.”“特朗普按下了加拿大的民族主义按钮，”桑兹说。“只要卡尼抵制，对他的政治前途就有好处。”“The Canadians have really been shocked by this,” he added. To restore relations, he said, “we have to win the Canadian public back over — and that’s going to take a long time.”“加拿大人确实对此感到震惊，”他还说。他说，要恢复关系，“我们必须重新赢得加拿大公众的好感——而这需要很长时间。”Michael Crowley是时报报道美国国务院和外交政策的记者。他曾在近三十个国家进行报道，并经常随国务卿出访。翻译：晋其角点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site