Rain likely to return after 3-week lull; Kutch, Saurashtra still 40% rain deficit

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Monsoon may be preparing for a late revival in Gujarat, but it may do little to fill up the state’s most worrying rainfall gaps, especially in districts with high rain deficit. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday forecast a heavy to very heavy spell of rain across South Gujarat and parts of Saurashtra from September 12 (Saturday).The forecast comes after a prolonged lull in monsoon activity for over three weeks and against a sharply uneven rainfall pattern across the state recorded so far. Of the districts bracing for another spell of heavy showers, several have already received substantial rain this season, leaving large parts of Saurashtra and Kutch well short of their normal cumulative rainfall.The IMD’s latest data show that Gujarat received 516.9 mm of rain against a normal 643.7 mm between June 1 and September 10, a deficit of 20%. The shortfall is considerably greater in Saurashtra and Kutch, which have recorded 294.8 mm against a normal 481.8 mm –a deficit of 39%.The district-wise forecast points to the strongest phase beginning on September 12. The IMD has issued a yellow alert, warning of heavy rain at isolated places across South Gujarat, covering Vadodara, Chhota Udepur, Narmada, Bharuch, Surat, Tapi, Dang, Navsari and Valsad, besides Daman and Dadra and Nagar Haveli. Thunderstorms with lightning and surface winds of 30–40 kmph are also likely over parts of North Gujarat, South Gujarat and Saurashtra.On September 13, orange warning for very heavy rain is issued for isolated places in Dang, Navsari, Valsad, Daman and Dadra and Nagar Haveli. Heavy rain is forecast in several central Gujarat districts, including Ahmedabad, Anand, Panchmahal, Dahod, Vadodara, Chhota Udepur, Narmada, Bharuch, Surat and Tapi, and in Saurashtra districts including Rajkot, Porbandar, Junagadh, Amreli, Bhavnagar, Gir Somnath, Botad and Diu.The following day, orange alert is issued for very heavy rain forecast in Dang, Navsari and Valsad and in Amreli and Bhavnagar, while heavy rain is expected over a wider stretch of Saurashtra, including Rajkot, Jamnagar, Porbandar, Junagadh, Morbi, Dwarka, Gir Somnath, Botad and Diu. On September 16, heavy rains are expected at isolated places of Saurashtra, namely Porbandar, Junagadh, Dwarka, Gir Somnath and Diu.This monsoon, Valsad has already received 2738.3 mm against a normal 1,891.3 mm, a surplus of 45%, while Navsari has recorded 2,242.3 mm against 1,666.8 mm, a surplus of 35%.