JEFFREY GETTLEMAN, JENNY GROSS, 郭莉莉2026年9月9日8月，中国“迪拜塔号”货轮停靠在宁波。本周，它将穿越北冰洋北上，完成前往英国的航程。 Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesFor years, China has been talking a big game about the Arctic.多年来，中国一直在北极问题上高调宣示自己的雄心。The country lies far from the Arctic Circle — more than 800 miles — but still, it has declared itself a “near-Arctic state.”中国距离北极圈相当遥远——超过1300公里——但它仍宣称自己是一个“近北极国家”。It has teamed up with Russia on coast guard patrols in the Arctic Ocean and explored a flurry of resource and technology projects in Arctic towns. (Most never materialized.)中国还与俄罗斯合作，在北冰洋开展海警巡逻，并在北极地区的城镇探索了一系列资源开发和技术项目。（但其中绝大多数最终都没有落地。）The Chinese are now promoting the first regular cargo service to use the Northern Sea Route, an Arctic shortcut from Asia to Europe across the top of the world. This week, the Dubai Tower, a Chinese cargo ship, is finishing a three-week journey from Qingdao to Teesport in England.中国现在正在推广首个使用北方海路的定期货运服务，这是一条从亚洲到欧洲、横跨世界顶端的北极捷径。本周，一艘名为“迪拜塔”的中国货轮即将完成从青岛到英国提兹港为期三周的航程。数据来源：Kpler; NASA Earth ObservatoryBut many of the Arctic watchers tracking the Dubai Tower’s little blinking dot as it moves across the screen on maritime websites are asking the same question: Is this smart business — or more of a bold geopolitical move?不过，许多在海事网站上追踪“迪拜塔号”航行轨迹——也就是海事网站上那个移动的闪烁小点的北极观察人士都在问同一个问题：这究竟是一门精明的生意，还是一项更具野心的地缘政治行动？The Northern Sea Route is thousands of miles shorter than alternatives through the Suez Canal or around the Cape of Good Hope. And as climate change intensifies, polar ice is disappearing, increasing its accessibility.北方海路比经由苏伊士运河或好望角的航线缩短了数千公里。随着气候变化加剧，极地冰层不断消退，这条航道的通行条件也越来越好。Yet shipping executives say the route is still too difficult, dangerous and expensive for China or any country to make this a regular service. And the season for operations is short — basically August and September, with maybe a few days in July and October. Even then, cargo ships need an icebreaker escort.然而航运高管表示，这条路线对中国或任何国家来说仍然过于困难、危险且昂贵，难以成为常规航线。而且运营季节很短——基本上只有8月和9月，可能还有7月和10月的几天。即便如此，货船仍需要破冰船护航。“It’s not commercially feasible,” said Vidya Mani, an associate professor at the University of Virginia who focuses on global supply chains.“这在商业上是不可行的，”弗吉尼亚大学研究全球供应链的副教授维迪亚·马尼表示。Shipping experts said that the route required specialized, reinforced vessels. Its remoteness made it riskier. And the insurance premiums run higher. The costs quickly pile up, they say, making the route unprofitable.航运专家表示，该航线需要专门的加固船只。其偏远性增加了风险，保险费用也更贵。他们说，成本会迅速累积，使得这条航道无法盈利。But behind these voyages, geopolitical analysts see something else.但在这些航行背后，地缘政治分析人士看到了别的东西。“This is a big deal,” said Dexter Roberts, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council focusing on China. “China is the only non-Arctic country that is actually doing something like this.”“这是件大事，”大西洋理事会专门研究中国问题的非常驻高级研究员德克斯特·罗伯茨说。“中国是唯一一个真正在开展这类活动的非北极国家。”今年6月，中国青岛港的集装箱。“迪拜塔号”从那里装载了1300个集装箱启航。“China is a master at doing things that don’t seem commercial, necessarily, in the beginning,” he added.“中国擅长做那些一开始看起来未必有商业利益的事情，”他补充道。Eventually, he said, “it all adds up to a geostrategic win.”他说，最终，“这一切加起来就是地缘战略上的胜利。”In the 1990s, China stepped up its Arctic research and made its first expedition to the North Pole. In more recent years, its government developed plans for trade along what it calls a polar silk road, though its “overtures have been met with suspicion,” according to a study published by Harvard’s Kennedy School.上世纪90年代，中国加强了对北极的研究，并进行了首次北极科考。近年来，中国政府制定了沿着所谓“冰上丝绸之路”开展贸易的计划，但根据哈佛大学肯尼迪学院发布的一项研究报告，其“提议遭到了外界的怀疑”。The 575-foot-long Dubai Tower left China on Aug. 19, carrying 1,300 containers of electric vehicles, batteries and other renewable energy equipment. This is the first of eight planned voyages that the shipping line Sea Legend has said it will run through the Arctic this season. The route can shave two weeks off the Asia-Europe trip. As Sea Legend executives pointed out, it also avoids conflict zones in the Middle East.长约175米的“迪拜塔号”于8月19日离开中国，船上装载了1300个集装箱，里面装有电动汽车、电池以及其他可再生能源设备。这是海杰航运公司计划在本航季通过北极航线运营的八个航次中的第一个。这条航线可以让亚洲至欧洲的航程缩短两周。海杰航运的高管还指出，这条航线的另一个优势是可以避开中东的冲突地区。As of Tuesday morning, the Dubai Tower was off Norway’s coast, heading south toward the British coastline. Sea Legend originally said the ship would pull into Felixstowe, another British port, this past Monday. Clearly, it’s running a little late.截至周二上午，“迪拜塔号”位于挪威海岸附近，正向南驶向英国海岸线。海杰航运最初表示该船将于本周一停靠另一个英国港口费利克斯托。显然，它比计划晚了几天。That’s another problem. Because of the extreme weather in the Arctic and the bobbing icebergs, voyage time along this route is harder to predict. And predictability is a must for many kinds of shipments.这是另一个问题。由于北极的极端天气和漂浮的冰山，航程时间更难预测。而对许多类型的货物运输来说，可预测性是必须的。Another complication is that most of the route runs along Russia’s northern coast and so shipping companies must pay the Russian government access fees. At the moment, many Western companies would be wary of that, given the Western sanctions on Russia over its war with Ukraine.另一个复杂因素是，这条航线大部分沿俄罗斯北部海岸，因此航运公司必须向俄罗斯政府支付通行费。目前，考虑到西方因俄罗斯与乌克兰的战争而对其实施制裁，许多西方公司对此保持警惕。South Korea is testing the route, and last month, its first commercial ship set sail for England through the Arctic. But these are pioneers. In 2025, just 13 container ships transited the Northern Sea Route, a record, according to Peter Sand, a shipping industry analyst. That compares with more than 1,800 container ships that used the Suez Canal last year, he said. Russian warships and Russian tankers carrying natural gas also use the Northern Sea Route.韩国正在测试这条航线，上个月，其首艘商船经由北极前往英国。但这些都只是先行者。航运业分析师彼得·桑德表示，2025年仅有13艘集装箱船穿越北方海路，这是一个创下纪录的数字。他说，相比之下，去年有1800多艘集装箱船使用苏伊士运河。俄罗斯军舰和运载天然气的俄罗斯油轮也使用北方海路。Lasse Kristoffersen, the chief executive of Wallenius Wilhelmsen, a global Norwegian shipping company, said his company had no plans to acquire ships equipped for the Arctic. But he said that if global warming continued at the same rate, the route could become more popular.华伦威尔森是一家全球性的挪威航运公司，它的首席执行官拉塞·克里斯托弗森表示，他的公司没有计划购置专门用于北极航行的船只。但他表示，如果全球变暖以同样的速度持续下去，这条航线可能会变得更受欢迎。“If you look at the current trend, unfortunately, it seems that that day will come,” he said.“如果你看看当前的趋势，不幸的是，那一天似乎会到来，”他说。More Arctic trade will help Russia. Already it is using the Northern Sea Route to strengthen its bond with China. The new service “obviously brings China and Russia even closer,” said Lyle Goldstein, the director of the Asia program at Defense Priorities, a research institute in Washington.更多的北极贸易将有利于俄罗斯。它已经在利用北方海路来加强与中国的联系。华盛顿智库国防重点的亚洲项目主任莱尔·戈德斯坦表示，这项新服务“显然会让中国和俄罗斯走得更近”。The crew of the Dubai Tower seemed excited for their own reasons.“迪拜塔号”的船员们似乎有自己的兴奋理由。“I hope I will get to see the Northern Lights,” said one sailor, in a video posted on social media by the company and labeled a “Heart-to-Heart in the Cabin.”“我希望看到北极光，”一名船员在公司发布于社交媒体的视频中说道，该视频的标题为“舱内交心”。Maybe, the sailor added, he would even see a polar bear.这名船员补充说，也许他还能看到北极熊。Siyi Zhao自北京对本文有研究贡献。Jeffrey Gettleman是一名国际新闻记者，常驻伦敦。他已在《纽约时报》任职超过20年。Jenny Gross常驻伦敦，为《纽约时报》报道商业和经济新闻。郭莉莉(Lily Kuo)是《纽约时报》报道中国记者，常驻台北。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。